Headline numbers were strong:
- Nonfarm payrolls rose by 336,000 in September following a revised increase of 227,000 in August.
- Nonfarm private payrolls increased by 263,000 in September following a revised increase of 177,000 in August.
- Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% following a 0.2% increase in August.
- The unemployment rate was unchanged in September at 3.8%.
However the report obscured the fact that most of the jobs added were lower paying, part-time jobs.
Full-time employment has actually contracted by -692k jobs over the past 3 months!
The last 3 times this happened was in 2001, 2008 and 2020…all recessions. This also lined up with ADP’s report, earlier in the week, that the economy had only gained 89,000 jobs last month.
Ok, so some cracks are showing up under the surface. Imo, this helps moves things along faster towards #badnewsisgoodnews #firstratecutwatch