Valuing NKTR the Monkey way


As you know, Monkey is a simple furry boy. So for him, investing decisions are often reduced to: good company, buy. Not so good, don’t buy.

And then you have a company that works in biopharmaceuticals, that will be really good (for all the best reasons) if they cure cancer and not so good if they don’t.

So after weighing the pros and cons and risk-reward profile, Monkey bought.

Now, today, they are 29% off their highs, for what big brained humans on this board call “silly reasons.” But one can’t buy more based off valuation and mere price anchoring, right, because this company’s valuation is what? Can we even compute it much beyond Monkey’s own “good” vs “bad” risk-reward profile?

Let me rephrase: it’s curious that one of Saul’s stocks is down 29% in the last two weeks, and continues falling, and not many peeps about it on this board in terms of “good value” or “value trap” or “stay away” or “buy!” Is that because the outcome here really is quite binary and the amount a stock like NKTR falls is mostly shoddy guess-work by the market, so you either believe or don’t believe, and the amount you pay for it on a particular day is just random, pretty much?

Who here has a good reason for picking up extra shares at today’s 82 banana market offering?


Monkey (long NKTR… but not sure for how long)


I think you get a 2 ‘fer with Nektar. Curing cancer and opioid.

But I just added here as well.

Now go buy my TTWO!!



Biopharmaceutical company Nektar Therapeutics recently touted hase III trial results of an opioid with low blood-brain barrier penetration, “designed to provide potent pain relief without the inherent high levels of euphoria which lead to abuse and addiction with standard opioids”. Those methods are, like doses of oxycodone, hydrocodone and fentanyl, systemic treatments, exposing tissue throughout the body and brain to their effects due to their presence in the bloodstream.


Treating pain without addiction: inside the lab fighting the opioid crisis

Sorry I didn’t include that in my last post


a post from Seeking Alpha:

Consequently, the said development has important ramifications for Nektar Therapeutics (NASDAQ:NKTR), a stellar San Francisco CA-based bioscience with molecules to treat cancer, autoimmune disease, and chronic pain. The drug of interest is NKTR-181 (a first-in-class selective mu-opioid agonist, potentially used to treat moderate to severe lower back pain). It can tap into the gargantuan $100B lower back pain market (and is seemingly the silver bullet for the prescription opioid abuse epidemic). It’s worthwhile to mention that NKTR-181 solves the abuse at the molecular level (which is what the FDA encourages in the development of an abuse-deterrent therapeutics).

Of note, the associated “rush or high” contributes to the addictive behavior because prescription opioids rapidly enter the blood-brain barriers (“BBB”). In contrast to conventional painkillers, NKTR-181 slowly enters the BBB to deter the associated high (even if the patient crushes the med or snort it). Already posted the stellar phase 3 data as we prognosticated, the firm intends to file the new drug application (“NDA”) for NKTR-181 this month. Thereafter, we expect it to gain an approval by early 2019.


1 Like


I picked up some more today, and I will try to explain my reasoning. After reading about them here, and doing a little digging, I liked and bought a very small position, about 0.5%, in the high $90s a little while back. My reasoning was they have great opportunity, but has good amount of risk. I also factored in that there could/would be a lot of big swings in stock price in the coming months being a drug company with no approved product yet but lots of potential. While the benefit/risk has not changed for the company, for me, their is 20% less risk at $80 than there is at $100. If that makes sense. So, I guess my plan is/was to build to a position where I am comfortable with it by taking advantage of the volatility. Sometimes doesn’t work out - if it would have gone strait up to $120, buying on the way up would still build my position but at a little bit higher cost basis.

That is pretty much the way I build most if not all my positions.