various tidbits

Here is my usual disclaimer about EV/S. I’d caution people against using EV/S to compare stocks against each other. There are way too many other factors that go into a company’s valuation. However, I do find EV/S helpful in comparing a company’s price against itself.

DDOG - Good stewards of our money. Share out have only increased 2% from 327 million shares to 334 million shares over the last year. Stock is not particularly cheap based on its TTM EV/S trading range. Currently around 50. Has been as high as 75 and as low as 16 but is normally in the 40s to high 50s.

NET - One of the most bullish indicators besides strong revenue growth and customer growth is a DBNER that is trending up. DBNER has been slowly declining (which is normal as long as it is slow) q2-2018 DBNER of 121% to q2 2020 DBNER of 115% we have seen a consistent increase from 115% to 119% over the last 3 quarters. The math on that is very impressive because that means new products and up-sells are being successfully rolled out to old customers. Share out have only increased 2.6% from 296 million to 303 million. Stock is at an EV/S of 42 which is on the high end of NET’s trading range except for brief surges higher.

LSPD - Lightspeed guided 70 million for next quarter. I’m guessing that is a very very conservative (they said so) guide. Most recent quarter only included part of shopkeep and upserve’s revenue. As of sept 30th 2020 those two together had about 90 million of revenue. Growing at an guesstimated ~30% a year which would mean that the sept 30th quarter was around 25 million dollars.

Calendar 2020     Upserve + shopkeep        Lightspeed         Combined
Q1                        21.4                  36.3
Q2                        22.9                  36.1
Q3                        24.5                  45.5
Q4                        26.2                  49.3             57.6 (partial contribution from acquisitions)
Q1  estimate              *25                   *49.3            *74.3

If we assume no sequential growth from lightspeed and their acquisitions then they would come in around 74 million which would be 106% YOY growth (not organic). Q1 is their slowest quarter so maybe it will be as slow as they are guiding. I’d guess that between payments penetration increasing and lockdowns lessing that q1 should come in around the 74-80 million dollar range.

Organic growth has trended up from ~30% range to 47% range over the last 2 years.

I’d also expect to see another acquisition in the next 6-9 months as LSPD now has 900 million dollars in the bank.