Venezuelan International Politics with a MacroEconomic Twist

It’s about The Devil’s Excrement, a.k.a. Oil

Why Venezuela is Preparing to Conquer Guyana

The Captain

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Maduro won’t got to war because the US and UK will topple him if he does.

I get he is a very ignorant little man. I might be wrong we might topple him.

How much of a bet the military stages a coup and Maduro does not live if the US and UK are steaming to Guyana? The VZ military would negotiate with the US instead of going to war.

Recall, Chavez was overthrown, but not immediately killed. He was reinstated only days later. When Allende was overthrown, he was promptly disposed of (alleged suicide, heh, heh, heh) Somoza was hunted down in exile and disposed of about a year after he was unhorsed.

Steve

Some anti Castro Cubans claim that Allende was killed by his Cuban bodyguard because he wanted to surrender. It’s plausible.

The Captain

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There is a faction in Florida, with an outsized degree of influence in US Federal policy, that would blame anything on the Castro regime.

Why kill Allende, when the Army is overrunning the place anyway? Doesn’t matter if he surrenders, or whoever replaces him surrenders, or Pinochet declares himself the winner. At least, Pinochet did not appear to have piled up as big a stack of bodies as Galtieri did, but they were both “good anti-Communists”. Interesting how, when Saddam invaded Kuwait, the US went in bigly to counterattack. But when Argentina invaded the Falklands, sovereign UK territory, all the US did was a bit of logistical support. One USN carrier group would have changed the air cover situation dramatically, and saved a lot of lives. But nope. Can’t upset the “good anti-Communists”

Steve

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Not all that much oil in the Falklands, either…

Pete

How many men did Argentina send over the straits to the Falklands? How many boats?

Not that difficult a war.

But yeah there is more oil involved in this.

There seems to be plenty of oil in that slice of Guyana, as if Venezuela could efficiently exploit the oil deposits it already has.

But this may change the calculus. We know USian oil companies take a dim view of Venezuela expropriating “their” oil. Exxon would not want to bet the farm on Guyana, only to have “their” oil expropriated.

Maduro is a major shareholder in the VZ oil company. It is not a state-owned company. There is no way the US and UK will let him roll into Guyana to stake a claim. Besides this may topple him.