Hey everyone and marry Christmas.
I would love to hear what the list of stocks you will keep an eye on for 2024 will be and why.
After a good year I will consider investing in:
DIS
WBA
KO
AAPL
CVX
IINN
BAC
REE
TSLA
I would love to hear your opinion!
You are not a growth stock investor. You can do better. The ones on your list are solid companies but not growth stocks.
Except TSLA? ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ 
so which stocks do you recommend me add to my watch list?
Hey EranKap,
Great and traditional topic, thanks for sharing your list and showing your humility.
Here’s my list from Dec 20. Stocks up over 15% in the last 90 days. The trick is to figure out which will continue. I decided to buy Wabtec this month. You can see my current holdings on CAPs.
90 Day Gain
20-Dec-23
PE
% gain
PH
18
15.10
IR
14
15.15
MSFT
35.8
15.54
CDNS
76
15.62
MLM
28
15.94
GEHC
20
16.04
META
30
16.55
WAB
30
16.59
NTAP
14
16.89
SHW*
38
17.09
COST
43
17.23
SOXX
17.39
INTU
64
17.59
WAT
29
17.93
ESI
37
18.01
CE
9.4
18.12
KLAC
24
18.20
LHX
27
18.28
IDXX
57
18.55
QLD
19.66
JBL
22
19.81
CMG
51
20.48
KBE
21.57
NOW
e58
21.60
LRCX
16
21.99
CRM
e31
22.17
KEYS
32
22.55
HII
14.4
22.79
A
52
22.86
ITB
23.41
ASML
38
23.69
ARKK
25.09
RCL
none
25.57
LEN
7
25.97
NFLX
35
26.66
VRT
67
27.29
ANET
35.7
27.58
QCOM
21
28.58
BA
none
28.60
NKE
43
29.13
UBER
e91
30.35
DHI
7
31.97
SHOP
e56
32.39
TOL
6
33.30
AVGO
30
33.69
MPWR
90
34.93
AMD
557
35.01
CLF
5
44.21
CRWD
e71
54.95
That was copy of pdf. This is copy of Excel file–
| 90 Day Gain | 20-Dec-23 | |
|---|---|---|
| PE | % gain | |
| PH | 18 | 15.10 |
| IR | 14 | 15.15 |
| MSFT | 35.8 | 15.54 |
| CDNS | 76 | 15.62 |
| MLM | 28 | 15.94 |
| GEHC | 20 | 16.04 |
| META | 30 | 16.55 |
| WAB | 30 | 16.59 |
| NTAP | 14 | 16.89 |
| SHW* | 38 | 17.09 |
| COST | 43 | 17.23 |
| SOXX | 17.39 | |
| INTU | 64 | 17.59 |
| WAT | 29 | 17.93 |
| ESI | 37 | 18.01 |
| CE | 9.4 | 18.12 |
| KLAC | 24 | 18.20 |
| LHX | 27 | 18.28 |
| IDXX | 57 | 18.55 |
| QLD | 19.66 | |
| JBL | 22 | 19.81 |
| CMG | 51 | 20.48 |
| KBE | 21.57 | |
| NOW | e58 | 21.60 |
| LRCX | 16 | 21.99 |
| CRM | e31 | 22.17 |
| KEYS | 32 | 22.55 |
| HII | 14.4 | 22.79 |
| A | 52 | 22.86 |
| ITB | 23.41 | |
| ASML | 38 | 23.69 |
| ARKK | 25.09 | |
| RCL | none | 25.57 |
| LEN | 7 | 25.97 |
| NFLX | 35 | 26.66 |
| VRT | 67 | 27.29 |
| ANET | 35.7 | 27.58 |
| QCOM | 21 | 28.58 |
| BA | none | 28.60 |
| NKE | 43 | 29.13 |
| UBER | e91 | 30.35 |
| DHI | 7 | 31.97 |
| SHOP | e56 | 32.39 |
| TOL | 6 | 33.30 |
| AVGO | 30 | 33.69 |
| MPWR | 90 | 34.93 |
| AMD | 557 | 35.01 |
| CLF | 5 | 44.21 |
| CRWD | e71 | 54.95 |
So glad I sold Apple before the end of the year.
Since drastic drops in the stock, I will buy again soon.
Drastic drop? AAPL dropped from about 200 to 180 which is only 10%. Ok, I guess that could be considered a bit more than a slight drop. But I’m LTBH so even 10% doesn’t bother me much. I think Apple still has a very bright future.
I wasn’t talking about Apple’s future.
Undoubtedly, a rosy future awaits her in my opinion.
At the moment, she is encountering a number of difficulties that have caused a certain inhibition.
Apple gets almost-annual “certain inhibitions”, largely due to regular questions about iPhone sales, often in China but sometimes more generally. Sometimes other product lines figure into the movement, but the iPhone is the biggest factor
Then-current dips in demand are probably real and usually seasonal, but when they’re measured against projections, I get skeptical. As a (very) long-term AAPL investor, I’m as positive about Apple as (almost) anybody, but there’s an inherent uncertainty to any such projection that analysts tend to either underestimate – vastly – or seemingly not take into account. That’s the physicist in me talking – a projected value without an included uncertainty (e.g. $N billion +/- $sigma billion in sales) is inherently worthless. Analysts, whisper numbers, etc. never include the sigma, whatever it may be, and when Apple misses the centroid but stays within the +/- sigma range, it’s reported that Apple exceeded or missed expectations rather than hit the expected range. Note that this goes both ways.
(Actually, I don’t know if notes to investors within firms include the uncertainty values, since I don’t read them and don’t have easy access to them. I read only what’s reported in the press.)
We used to say here that analysts simply “don’t understand Apple”, but I don’t think that’s true any more. Apple’s been so dominant for so many years that it’s hard not to understand, and quantitative analysts almost certainly do understand the importance of uncertainties in projections coupled with incomplete current knowledge (e.g. of supply chain, demand, inventory, channel, etc.). I do think, though, that analysts dumb-down their public statements – and/or reporters relay a dumbed-down summary of the statements to the general public – which, when coupled with the aggregate lack of long-term memory among the population of short term investors and traders, results in the kinds of moves we see recently (downward or upward). All it takes is one statement by one firm to spark some sort of swing which will be forgotten in a quarter. The aggregate intelligence of the market is greater than that of the individual, except when it isn’t.
All of which is my long-winded way of saying that, being a LTBH investor like g0177325, swings like this don’t bother me too much. Maybe it bothers me a bit more than him, but I’ve weathered enough dips to have built up some tolerance to them, even if I still dislike unpredictability.
-awlabrador
I’ve suspected that the dumbed down way analysts deal with that sigma is to publish low. Since it is seen as a miss if the number isn’t at least hit, and sometimes seen as bad even if the number is hit but not beat, instead they can publish at their low end, or possibly even put in a safety factor.
If they think earnings are going to be up 30%, but have a range of 25-35%, they might even publish down at the 20 or 22%. Unless they want to be outlandish to make the headlines, though these days a couple of them do that with their Bullish case, while also putting out their Base case and even a Bearish case. Why not cover all the bases 
But being a big conservative makes it easier for the company to beat expectations, which is a positive if on the Bullish side. Plus it gives some room for those whisper numbers, that are supposedly closer to the actual expectations.
Nice to see AAPL up today. While I wish I had sold the small lot of short term shares I recently picked up, I’m mainly just a long term holder, after picking up my first batch of AAPL just over 26 years ago. There’s been many ups and downs since then, and some have been especially severe even without added leverage or options. But TMF is showing the 5 year annualized return on AAPL is 36%, which is around the 26 year annualized rate too. It isn’t likely to continue being that huge, but to my set of risk/reward preferences it still looks like a good choice for the next 2, 3 or 5 year period.