In case you haven’t noticed we’ve just passed the bottom of this sell-off.
First of all market timing is very OT, so if you want to question me please don’t start a thread, but write to me off board.
Second, It’s silly to make a prediction like that and I could be totally, totally wrong, and the market could start down again tomorrow, so I’m just calling this for myself, and please make your own decisions and don’t just follow me. I’ve been wrong about a lot of things.
Here’s what I’m basing it on: Last Tuesday my portfolio hit its lowest level in the current drop at up 30.5%, and bounced the next day, and then Thursday it tested the bottom again, held, and closed at up 30.9%. Friday it made a small bounce again.
Yesterday, Monday, we tested it again, a third time, intraday, and my portfolio held and bounced strongly enough to finish the day at up 33.0%. Right now, as of 3:31 EST Tuesday, my portfolio was up 7.9 points and stands at up 40.9%, so with three bounces off the same level, and now a strong continuation, clearly there is strong support at that level. I’m telling you know as we are heading out and I won’t be able to later, after the close.
As you can see, although this down draft was scary again, my Bottom was 60% higher than the bottom in May of minus 18.5% ytd. Sixty percent higher!!! Higher tops and higher bottoms. It’s important to understand that. My previous all time high, before the May bottom, was when I was up 15.9% ytd in February. This, most recent, high in November was up 93.1% ytd, which is 67% higher than that previous one.
Staying invested has worked for me. It’s enough work to find and choose great companies without having to guess getting out and getting back in, trying to time the market. (You have to be right on both decisions).
Best,
Saul