What a heck of a week! After gaining 8.5% a week ago (in a four day week, no less), my portfolio turned around this weeks and gave back 6.0% this week.
But with a surprise. There was one unexplainable stock in my portfolio though. After gaining 17.6% (!!!) a week ago from $110.80 to $130.30, it was up another 2.3% this week, continuing from $130.30 to a close of $133.30 (after closing twice during the week at over $140.00).
None of my other companies were positive on the week. Only Snowflake came close, only down 2%. I haven’t a clue what’s going on to push this company up so strongly (besides their results coming in better than expected, but almost all my companies had results better than expected), and I would thus welcome any thoughtful ideas.
Oh, yes, the company was Monday.
Thanks for some hopefully helpful discussion.
Monday’s chief competitor, Asana, had a huge jump in price this week because the CEO bought $350M of Asana stock. Monday’s price appears to have jumped in sympathy with Asana.
Could it be possible that retail investors are having a much larger impact on the market than in the past? And that is why these inexplicable movements may be happening?
I don’t usually post to this board because my posts would be considered off topic. But since you asked.
and I would thus welcome any thoughtful ideas.
I believe you are a psychiatrist so this should make sense for you. The best description of short term movements I ever heard is that Mr. Market is like a drunk looking for his car keys under the lamppost because that’s where the light is. IOW, mostly irrelevant.
hi Denny, I like the description of the company and the stock price as being like a man walking with his dog on a country road. Sometimes the dog walks at the same pace, sometimes he runs way ahead of the man, sometimes he’s way behind the man, following a smell or chasing a rabbit, but they always arrive together when they arrive at their home.
There’s also a possibility the last couple days were influenced by Figma being bought for $20B by Adobe. Figma is a collaboration design software, so the acquisition premium might have helped other collaboration software firms. I figure that’s just as good a guess as any.
Also there was Monday’s impressive presentation at the Goldman Sachs Conference that Crazy Czech just pointed us to. I found the time to listen this morning and was impressed (again).
Okay, we have a number of possible explanations for Mondays extraordinarily strong performance on a blah two weeks for the market and the rest of our portfolio.
First that it’s due to more activity by individual investors. I personally would think it’s more likely to be more activity by bots (but I don’t think it was either one).
Second that it’s due to random noise (the dog walking). Possible, but this was an awful big move by Monday, up 20.3% in two weeks, for random noise, for two weeks during which the S&P was DOWN 1.3%.
Third, the Asana CEO made a large inside purchase, and Monday is up in sympathy. BUT, when a direct competitor shows a lot of confidence, is that good news or bad news for you. Not clear. You could take it either way.
Fourth, Figue being bought by adobe for some huge EV/S multiple certainly could have influenced the market, especially since Monday’s EV/S was way, way, way, below the EV/S that Figue was bought for.
Fifth, Monday’s presentation at Goldman Sachs was certainly strong, but these companies make presentations all the time and don’t bounce like that.
I think I’d go for number Four, with maybe a little bit from number Three as well.
Thanks to you all for all the ideas,