What next for Covid treatment?

We heard it when we first m I ved up to the Boston MetroWest area. Literally our first weekend jaunt out in the car to explore the local highways and byways.

I don’t know whether you’ve ever heard any of the Car Talk programs on NPR but Click and Clack (the Tappit brothers) were hilarious. I’m sure an audios snip is available online. Husband almost drove off the road, he was laughing so hard!

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That makes it easy to tilt the statistics any way you want.

No, it doesn’t, because doctors are doctors, and they’re quite capable of notifying medical authorities if they see unusual deaths following a new medicine or treatment that are otherwise unexplained. It’s a completely normal and regular part of their work.

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Oh horse hockey. People may dismiss things on the basis of whatever they choose, but big data is the place to look for the surest results. And what does it say?

Our results showed that US counties with higher proportions of persons ≥ 12 years of age fully vaccinated against COVID-19 had substantially lower rates of COVID-19 cases and deaths—a finding that showed dose response and persisted even in the period when Delta was predominant.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanam/article/PIIS2667-193X(22)00008-4/fulltext

This is data at the county level, which is probably as granular as you’d want to take it. And yes, there are possibly other causes for the differential between county results (reporting reluctance, medical availability, etc.) but overall the data is clear. Crystal clear: the vaccines work. They are not perfect, but they prevent a lot of cases, and in those where prevention fails they also lessen the effects of the virus. And they surely prevent deaths.

Period.

I happily acknowledge they do not stop people from being idiots, however.

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How did so many people get past Polio, Tetanus, Hepatitus B, Hepatitus A, Hepatitus C, Rubella, HIB, Measles, Whooping Cough, Mumps, Chicken pox, diphtheria, etc,? I mean look at the odds, if they didn’t believe in vaccines then some of these should have taken them out. So did people believe in vaccines and then when the MRNA platform came out they decided it couldn’t be true because man can not make anything that fast? Is it the technology that has them confused? I think in the next pandemic, it’s going to be a lot worse.

Andy

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Actually, Andy, over the past 20 years or so there’s been a big resurgence of anti vaccine sentiments. There’s always been an antivaccine movement from the time of Jenner that’s waxed and waned over the centuries.

In the 1970s the focus of their ire in the UK was the Pertussis part of the TDP shot…with the consequence that Whooping Cough came bouncing back with a vengeance. To the extent that in the early 1980s when my daughter was born, it was so common to hear of a kid with Whooping Cough that there could be no legitimate argument about risk/benefit of the vaccine vs. disease. Didn’t stop folk trying, mind.

This current wave can be traced back to one lone rogue physician (a similar situation to the Whooping Cough) whose research has now been recognised as fraudulent. Andrew Wakefield was such a darling of the popular press that the very early warning signs of irreproducubility etc uttered by the scientific community were drowned out by the squawks of the anti vaxxers and their followers and folk started to avoid vaccines for the once near “extinct” childhood diseases…not just measles (Wakefield’s alleged demon).

I followed that story closely since the early aughts and, by default, so did members of the old Health and Nutrition board…with eerily similar anti science arguments that you can read in recent threads. I recall warning that it wouldn’t be a big surprise if we saw cases of measles making a comeback (any of the Olde Lags will recall the underwhelming support that accurate prediction received :wink:). Never did I foresee a pandemic of the magnitude of Covid …or that polio would be among the vaccines that parents would be refusing**…and I wish I could say that I’m surprised by the anti vaccine sentiments floating around now. I’m not.

**When news of the polio virus in wastewater came out in the UK this past Summer(we were there at the time) it turned out that there were 1 in 5 under 5s unimmunised against polio!! Add that to all the others who were unimmunised, that was a big chunk of the population vulnerable to a disease that scared the bejeesus out of parents in the 1950s…and us kids.

FWIW, of your list, Hep C is the one that still doesn’t have an effective vaccine. A consequence of the virus being able to evade immune surveillance by virtue of being a single strand RNA virus with a very high replication rate and rapid evolution. Good job it’s not respiratory else we’d all be on a liver transplant waiting list.

Another FWIW…it’s also spilled over into veterinary medicine. Yes…folk even try to weasel out of rabies vaccines for their animals in these parts. I live near Boulder, CO…the World’s epicenter of WOO! and nitwittery…and my daughter’s a veterinarian.

Edit: …for a Good Read on Andrew Wakefield and the MMR saga, here’s a book by Brian Deer whose tenacity in following and investigating Wakefield led to his fraud being uncovered. Probably a library “get” rather than a purchase but very worthwhile and readable

The Doctor Who Fooled the World: Science, Deception, and the War on Vaccines The Doctor Who Fooled the World: Science, Deception, and the War on Vaccines - Google Search

Another edit and article…this time from one of the handful of medical writers, along with Ben Goldacre (of Bad Science fame) who I followed online from the early aughts. Notice any similarities in this account to Covid denialism/vaccine phobia?? I wonder what these guys would make of Peter Doshi :thinking:

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I think Fauci did a pretty good job under very difficult conditions. He alone preserved the credibility of the US government during this crisis. I know you think otherwise, but have so far provided no good reason why other than a link to an interview and taking statements out of context.

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Over the next few months a lot of new information should become available which, hopefully, will disclose who is right.

The Captain

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I always ask myself: So why should I believe this “new information” over what we already know… or have already been told? Maybe it really is better info and therefore dispenses with the current knowledge, or maybe… maybe … the “new info” is the “Great Re-write” as it were. I mean that in the insidious, pejorative sense. Or, maybe people will believe it because it fits their personal view…? It’s just information. Absent any compelling, unique reason to believe it vs any other information, it’s just more stuff. You can throw it in the pile with the other stuff

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A few words about science I’d like to add after reading some idiotic comments (I’m being kind) on this thread.

According to the Oxford dictionary, science is:

the systematic study of the structure and behavior of the physical and natural world through observation, experimentation, and the testing of theories against the evidence obtained.

In other words, science depends on knowledge and our knowledge is not perfect, but the trend is definitely bending towards perfection.

Finding errors is not a bug in science, it’s a feature. It’s what makes science so damn powerful.

Following current scientific understanding does not guarantee success, but it sure as heck loads the odds in your favor.

It’s kind of like if you were on a plane about to take off and 2 people walk on board, one a pilot trained to fly the plane and me, a person who has never flown a plane in my life (but I have played MS Flight Simulator!).

If I got into the pilot’s seat, my guess is you’d be scrambling to get out of the plane as fast as you could. Why? Because when your life is on the line, all of a sudden you believe in expertise.

Well, your life IS on the line.

Fauci has spent his life studying, and is an expert, in infectious diseases.

No, he is not perfect. Nor are trained pilots. There’s always a chance a trained pilot will crash a plane.

Life is not about perfection, it’s about increasing your odds.

Another thing about Fauci. When he makes a mistake (as all humans do), he admits it and changes course (kind of like science). I find that an admirable quality as opposed to someone who refuses to acknowledge, or change course, when they’ve made a mistake.

The former is most likely to succeed in the long run, the latter to fail.

Likewise, believing in science will increase your odds of success, but not guarantee it.

I believe in science, and Fauci, because I’m always looking to gain an edge.

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We used to believe that the Sun went around the Earth based on empirical evidence. Aristotle believed that for a body to remain in motion there had to be a force applied to it, again based on empirical evidence.

https://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/07/22/keynes-change-mind/

John Maynard Keynes? Paul Samuelson? Winston Churchill? Joan Robinson? Apocryphal?

Will we ever know?

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Madoff was an expert investor esteemed by the SEC…

Shift happens!

The Captain

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Or, it may be like a certain series of hearings in which hours and hours and hours of testimony is given and little new is discovered. The bigger question may be whether you will accept it when it turns out that what was done at any given point was what was scientifically reasonable to do at that point given our level of knowledge at that point.

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Look at the back of your hand. Based on empirical evidence, the blood in those veins looks like it’s blue.

But thanks to science, we know it’s red.

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And trained pilots crash planes.

And people who wear seat belts die in car crashes.

And vaccines are not 100% effective.

Welcome to real life.

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I never knew I was so important! :imp:

The Captain

You need science to see that blood is red? :imp:

The Captain

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And medical experts can be crooks. :imp:

The Captain

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Well , you are in a way. Or rather the silliness of your utterances demonstrates better than any long winded explanation the Dunning-Kruger effect … that, you don’t have to know much to think you know enough, but a heck of a lot to realise you don’t.

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Don’t be obtuse.

Look at the back of your hand. Based on empirical evidence, what color does the blood in veins look like?

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And posters on finance boards can toss out unfounded claims about people all day long.

So?

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