What's going on with ESTC Q4FY19

Investment Analysis Clubs Saul’s Investing Discussions
1

Declining revenue growth
High Gross Margin %
Stellar retention rate
66% Billings growth
Soft FY2020 forecast


Revenue (millions USD)						
	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Year	YOY
2017	16,572	21,305	23,128	27,172	88,177	
2018	31,644	37,038	41,681	49,572	159,935	81.38%
2019	56,644	63,575	70,835	80,599	271,653	69.85%
YOY %	79.00%	71.65%	69.95%	62.59%		
Forecast46.60%					47.60%	
						
Adj Gross Profit (millions USD)						
	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Year	YOY
2018	24,685	28,597	31,853	36,996	122,131	
2019	42,350	46,629	52,604	59,497	201,080	64.64%
YOY %	71.56%	63.06%	65.15%	60.82%		
						
						
Gross margin percent (Non-GAAP)						
	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Year	
2018	78.01%	77.21%	76.42%	74.63%	76.36%	
2019	74.77%	73.34%	74.26%	73.82%	74.02%	
						
						
Adj Operating Profit (millions USD)						
	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Year	YOY
2018	-6,159	-3,544	-8,043	-14,216	-31,962	
2019	-11,660	-14,830	-11,730	-17,476	-55,696	74.26%
						
						
Operating Profit % of Revenue (Non-GAAP)						
	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Year	
2018	-19.46%	-9.57%	-19.30%	-28.68%	-19.98%	
2019	-20.58%	-23.33%	-16.56%	-21.68%	-20.50%	
						
						
Adj Net Profit (millions USD)						
	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Year	YOY
2018	-7,854	-5,265	-8,694	-17,515	-39,328	
2019	-12,494	-16,910	-11,151	-20,472	-61,027	55.17%
						
						
Net Profit % of Revenue (Non-GAAP)						
	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Year	
2018	-24.82%	-14.22%	-20.86%	-35.33%	-24.59%	
2019	-22.06%	-26.60%	-15.74%	-25.40%	-22.47%	
						
						
Adj EPS (USD)						
	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Year	YOY
2018	-0.25	-0.17	-0.27	-0.54	-1.23	
2019	-0.38	-0.38	-0.16	-0.28	-1.11	-9.76%

						
						
Opr Cash Flow GAAP (millions USD)						
	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Year	YOY
2018	850	4,086	-1,848	-23,907	-20,819	
2019	5,126	-576	-8,697	-19,790	-23,937	14.98%
						
						
Free Cash Flow (millions USD)						
	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Year	YOY
2018	456	3,584	-2,793	-25,034	-23,787	
2019	4,790	-1,412	-9,884	-20,878	-27,384	15.12%
						
						
Total customers						
	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	YOY	
2017				2,800		
2018				5,000	78.57%	
2019	5,500	6,300	7,200	8,100	62.00%	
	july2018					
						
Customers (ACV > $100k)						
	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	YOY	
2019		340	380	440			
						
						
Dollar-based net expansion rate						
	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4		
2017			>130%	>130%		
2018	>130%	>130%	>130%	>130%		
2019	142%	>130%	>130%	>130%		

Q1 and Full Year FY20 Guidance
				Q1FY20		FY20
Total Revenue			$82M - $84M	$397M - $403M
Non-GAAP Operating Margin	-34% to -32%	-25% to -23%
Non-GAAP Net loss per share	$0.44 to $0.42	$1.49 to $1.33
Weighted average shares
outstanding (basic & diluted)	74M - 75M	76M - 80M

🆁🅶🅱
wordlessly watching, he waits by the window and wonders…

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I will tell you what I’ve thought since before they went public. SIEM and Data Analytics are their largest TAM opportunities but also the most competitive. They entered these markets in latter years. Splunk is spending gobs of money to keep growing at 35% a year and is considered the highest quality option out there for data analytics, and has staved off freeware and open source for quite sone time due to their plug and play easy to use product. Elastic does get good reviews for being cheaper and quality product.

ESTC, while being called by many as a “Splunk killer” has seen decreased revenue growth every single quarter while Splunk in one quarter will grow it’s revenue YOY as much as what ESTC will report in total over a year. Not a sign of disrupting anything.

But they’re cheaper though so more likely to go up within the next 6 months to some people compared to, say, MDB which is priced high but has relative strength on its side, which is about the best indicator you could ask for in rising markets for short term performance.

It’s possible last week’s performance was partly impacted by the final lockup expiration. If you’re a believer in the ESTC story this is what a lot of people were waiting for to buy.

I continue to watch from the sidelines with interest in their enterprise search.

4 Likes
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Soft guidance???

They called 49% growth for full year. They follow the same beat-and-raise formula as others.

What other stocks have put forward that high % of growth guidanve for a full year out, Especially on top of a $250m+ sized yearly revenue base?

Dreamer

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also ESTC reported higher growth rate on currency neutral basis.
and there have been suggestions on this board on how ESTC rate should increase going forward.

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