Is this an indication that the inflation has already peaked? Hopefully, implying greener days to come in the market…Or a more sinister indication of “everything is going down from here”
Apologies…should have said OT
Some outlets like Reuters reported this news as due to recession fears. However, there are other who pointed out end of June is Hedge fund performance reporting period. Hedge funds across the board were sitting on massive energy gains. So they closed about 87M barrel long positions. Note, the short position didn’t increase (5% increase during the time longs were unwinded).
I agree with this. No new supplies, demand hasn’t reduced, US strategic reserves are depleted, if Putin keeps the gas pipeline shutdown expect some fireworks in the market.
Physical market remains tight
All wise guys and algos pushing around paper market due to recession trades
EPIC time to buy EPD OXY
No new supplies, demand hasn’t reduced, US strategic reserves are depleted
It isn’t like there is a valve that can be turned to create new supplies. Well, except, I guess you can consider the SPR a valved that was turned.
I don’t know how long it takes to get a new well permitted, drilled and the first barrel of crude delivered. But I’m sure there are some of these, in the so-called pipeline now.
It isn’t like there is a valve that can be turned to create new supplies.
Yes, Saudi is/ was the producer who enforces the balance. When the US shale companies wrecked the Oil price, Saudi broke their back by increasing the supply. Now they are not increasing the production. There is a reason Biden is in Middle East.
I am not sure how to decipher this latest CPI data and the markets reaction to that.
It clearly states the inflation has worsened…and then some say market is forward looking, and that inflation has likely peaked which is why the downside is muted (although this can change in a second).
But even if that is the case…with inflation being at 9% or so, wouldn’t it be a while before it settles to a norm of 2% and wouldn’t that not be before further multiple hikes?
So, is the bear case still the most likely scenario here?
No new funds to invest…So, currently, all I am trying to do is just watch and learn from others who are far more experienced.
Thanks again for your input.
“Tuesday’s oil price collapse might go down as one of the most memorable moments of the oil market’s tumultuous year of 2022. Despite being the third-largest daily loss since the onset of oil exchanges, declining crude did not trigger any changes along the futures curve, implying that the huge drop was primarily coming from widespread profit-taking as primarily non-physical participants panicked at the prospect of recession hitting the markets sooner than expected. The balances, however, do not lie – we are still living in times of extremely tight supply and even though it might take some time, the physical side of the equation will push prices back soon.”
Yes, Saudi is/ was the producer who enforces the balance
US President has to pay homage to Saudi Monarchy/ Oil power. After he kissed their ring, Saudi agreed to increase Oil production by 13 million barrels per day. Soon Oil price will normalize.
By 13 mil or to 13mil bpd?