Will speculative assets fall?

On a note related to the subject thread, a couple of weeks ago, chipmaker for wireless products Qualcomm (QCOM) made a big announcement regarding AI. On Oct 27, QCOM announced plans to introduce products for AI data centers. Shares got a huge uplift on the news, bouncing from the $170s to over $205/sh, prior to giving a bunch back that day and ended up around $190/sh. Over the next week or so, shares continued meandering downward. Today (11/07) was a negative day for QCOM shares. At one point intraday, shares traded below the share price at the time of the news. I guess, I missed the memo that advised that this was a “sell on the news” event. Or a “pigs make money” event. While my QCOM stake is positive, this is the second consecutive year that a considerable amout of gains were left “at the table”. Is QCOM a speculative name? Probably not. However, in hindsight, the market seemed to over-react to the AI developments Then gradually, realize this fact.

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It is about time you share your picks!!! At least it should create some discussion.

I have software that sorts the 190. I spend abt 4 hr per month at it. I think the returns make it well worth the effort.

My CAPs list is accurate (except for a few mutual funds). Western Digital, Seagate, Robinhood are recent additions doing well. Toll Brothers not so well. Mega amounts of Nvida but not in IRA. AARK. XLK. All the mag 7 except Tesla.

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@pauleckler what are “the 190”? How do you choose them?

What is the software that sorts them? What are your criteria?

Teach a gal to fish. :wink:

Wendy

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I own abt 35 but watch for charts showing 15+% gain in the last 90 days. They get added to my 190 list of stocks to watch. I use Google sheets to get closing price for the 190 once mer month. Calc 90 day gain and sort. Look at 3 mo chart for all over 15%. Use 50 day and 200 day moving avg as a guide. But especially watch for stocks w a steady gain for the 90 days. They get closer inspection for growth prospects before I decide to sell losers and buy winners. Sometimes none meet criteria and don’t buy. Usually do up to three or four per month.

Add new stocks to the watch list as I find them. And delete a few losers to keep list manageable. Just adding SOXL to my watch list. SOXX is Philadelphia Semiconductor index. SOXL is 3x SOXX they claim.

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Wendy thanx for asking my question
Pauleckler thanx for a solid cogent clear answer.

I do not do securities investing — my emotional structure is just plain wrong (but let me loose on bare land and pre-construction real estate!), but my nieces nephews godchildren now do securities with real seriousness, and I am passing pauleckler’s methodology on to them.

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I feel like we’re in the TINA house again (There Is No Alternative).

I mean as clear as it could be, Altman was asked “How is this ever going to be profitable: $1.5T investment against $15B revenue (not even profit!)” and he mumblety fumbled his way through to “maybe the government should backstop our loans to decrease our costs”, which is as close to “the emperor has no clothes” as you’re likely to hear.

And yes, the market (or at least the magically overpriced 7) moved down slightly - but not significantly, at least not significantly enough to come anywhere close to historical reality.

So yeah, about that trigger finger. Absent some serious external shock (war, pestilence, plague) I don’t think we’re going to have a sudden “trigger finger” kind of thing. More likely a semi-slow off ramp, moving a little lower each time, as people get used to the idea that maybe valuations are stretched.

Or maybe not. As the old saying goes “the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” Or something like that.

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The USA as a whole, not just the economic markets that depend on a minimal level of political sanity, are going through a phase of “Who am i what am i where am it why am I, uhm WHAAAT?”, probably largely as a result of the collapse of sane somewhat fact-checked media. The violence of the shifts in sentiment are being shown by the political electorate, but to get closer to the underlying seismic shifts, just sit down for a gentle but serious conversation with millenials and younger about our shared reality.

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Lets continue the investing discussion over on Liquid Lounge–

https://discussion.fool.com/t/ira-growth-my-stock-picking-methods/122050

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As in 1930 - 1932

Slip sliding away
The closer your destination
the more you keep
slip sliding away

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