Timing is difficult; but, I’m all in on Agentic AI disrupting The business model, at least as much as SaaS had.
The Cover of Economist is a picture from an article in it, written by George Gilbert. He’s the ‘expert’ I cited in my last post here with a link to a recent YouTube video he’d done for The Cube .
I haven’t posted for a couple months because I’ve only trimmed and added tiny amounts here and there, taking advantage of running a concentrated portfolio (Its nice to know what’s FUD and what May be material).
Since the time I began to try to follow Saul’s advice and listen to the contributions from everyone here: primarily I keep in mind what I paraphrase here as Saul’s advice, ‘to invest in the Leaders of market segments, within an overall rapidly accelerating area’.
| Year | % Change |
|---|---|
| 2018 | +38.9% |
| 2019 | +32.9% |
| 2020 | +203% |
| 2021 | +46.8% |
| 2022 | (-)58.55% |
| 2023 | +66.27% |
| 2024 | Month to Date | Year to Date |
|---|---|---|
| January | (-)4.31% | (-)4.31% |
| February | 16.32% | 11.3% |
| March | (-)3.37% | 7.55% |
| April | ~ 1% | **~**8.5% |
| May | 5.7% | 14.76% |
| June | 7.7% | 23.65% |
| July | 13.77% | 40% |
| August | (-)12.36% | 23.29% |
| 8/31/24 | 7/31/24 | 6/30/24 | 5/31/24 | **~**4/30/24 | 3/31/24 | 2/29/24 | 1/31/24 | 12/29/23 | 11/30 | 10/31/23 | 9/30/23 | 8/31/23 | 7/31/23 | 6/30/23 | 5/31/23 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla | 32.89% | 34% | 30.01% | 30% | 40.88% | 35.38% | 34.35% | 31.93% | 33.61% | 34.84% | 33.35% | 31.46% | 31.63% | 35.02% | 33.69% | 33.11% |
| Nvidia | 26.19% | 24% | 27.03% | 30% | 27.82% | 28.41% | 24.04% | 21.75% | 16.75% | 13.58% | 14.26% | 6.84% | ||||
| Pure Storage | 7.88% | 9% | 9.83% | 10% | 6.07% | 13.68% | 12.80% | 11.31% | 9.65% | 8.7% | 10.64% | 10.08% | 8.97% | |||
| Snowflake | 12.53% | 14% | 14.78% | 19% | 21.97% | 18.29% | 13.73% | 14.11% | 18.84% | 19.07% | 20.3% | 19.21% | 14.95% | 20.01% | 15.99% | 16.03% |
| Palantir | 13.82% | 12.5% | 11.64% | 11% | ||||||||||||
| Zscaler | 6.69% | 6.5% | 6.41% | |||||||||||||
| Cloudflare | 0% | 3.26% | 4.26% | 13.77% | 12.85% | 12.95% | 12.88% | 12.59% | 12.58% | 17.93% | 19.26% | 19.80% | 33.8% | |||
| Samsara’s | 0% | 1.32% | 8.06% | 8.82% | 10.93% | 8.87% | 9.69% | 8.38% | ||||||||
| Crowdstrike | 0% | 5.26% | 9.98% | 14.11% | 13.34% | |||||||||||
| Monday | 0% | 8.15% | 7.89% | 14.26% | 16.16% | |||||||||||
| Datadog | 0% | |||||||||||||||
| MongoDB | ||||||||||||||||
| Cash | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.7% | 2.42% |
The fact that Google, Meta and MS are all accelerating their investment in AI hardware really is a telling positive for actual demand for AI solutions that is exactly opposite to the way software shares are trading.
Muji-
Following Q2s, despite the drops in share price, the hyperscalers are all-in on the outsized demand for enterprises to leverage Generative AI, plus the potential to leverage it themselves in their own commercial & consumer operations. All are committing to massive GPU and DC build-outs from here, not only in the US but globally – which should drive the hyperscaler demand for NVIDIA for years.
The fact that Google, Meta and MS are all accelerating their investment in AI hardware really is a telling positive for actual demand for AI solutions that is exactly opposite to the way software shares are trading.
