Wondering What Happened Today

As I look over todays carnage I am wondering if this is just your regular ole we-went-to-far-to-fast and need a brief pause - or - perhaps a prelude to a bigger event: sort of like all those minor earthquakes in Yellowstone that occur daily. Are those usually unfelt tremors just a day-in-the-life of the Yellowstone ecosystem - or, are they meaningful in a sort of build-up to the big one sort of way? Dunno - but here is the record over the last year:

0 Earthquakes in the last 24 Hrs
3 Earthquakes in the past 7 Days
17 Earthquakes in the last 30 Days
380 Earthquakes in the last 365 Days

Now…it might be easy to think that…well…those stats don’t sound all that bad and especially for a huge area sitting right on top of an ancient, but very active, mega grande Volcano. right?

You might well think that until you realize that the data above represents only those Earthquakes of magnitude 1.5 or greater. The Yellowstone folks don’t even count or think much about the huge number of quakes of less than M1.5 that occur, and are occurring, daily. This month they have already had a 2.8. Three weeks ago they had a 2.6, a 2.1 and 2.4. Earlier this year in Livingston they had a M4: which, being that Livingston is about 115 miles from West Yellowstone wouldn’t add to the Yellowstone tally. I suppose.

The park has 50 seismometers scattered about; although, while spending a great deal of the time in the park I have never actually noticed on. They call them The Bad Boy Mowers Yellowstone Seismic Network. ( I just made up the part about being sponsored by The Bad Boy Mowers). The system is actually monitored by the University of Utah and here is a little more information:

Since 1973, there have been over 48,000 earthquakes located in the Yellowstone region. Over 99% of those earthquakes are magnitude 2 or below and are not felt by anyone. Earthquake swarms (earthquakes that cluster in time and space) account for about 50% of the total seismicity in Yellowstone and can occur anywhere in the Yellowstone region, but they are most common in the east-west band of seismicity between Hebgen Lake and the Norris Geyser Basin. Most swarms are small, containing 10-20 earthquakes, and short, lasting for 1–2 days. However, large swarms that can contain 1,000’s of earthquakes and last for months do occur on occasion.

Now…you might be wondering what in the world Yellowstone Earthquakes might have to do with investing; however, I consider the law of concomitant natural events being interrelated in the general theme of casual to non-existent inter-relationships. So I wonder if todays market tremor which - based on a foundational group of 50-60 stocks I monitor - came out as a M-2.29 (%) portfolio quake is significant to any extent. I am quite sure why the vast majority of folks who stumble on to this site will completely understand why an investor might wonder about it.

Here are the ancillary and local damage caused by the market tremor today:

A) Major Damage

  1. DUOL -8.78%
  2. NET -8.51
  3. UPST -8.17
  4. DDOG -8.11
  5. PATH -7.91
  6. SNOW -7.22
  7. CFLT -6.77
  8. MNDY -6.56
  9. RBLX -6.51

B) Moderate Damage

  1. AYX -5.98
  2. IOT -5.41
  3. ZS -5.27
  4. BILL -5.18
  5. AMD -5.15
  6. SMAR -5.15
  7. HUBS -5.09
  8. PLTR -4.98
  9. MDB -4.92
  10. AI -4.63
  11. DOCN -4.43
  12. GLBE -4.12
  13. DOCS -4.11
  14. DT -3.91
  15. MELI -3.68
  16. FTNT -3.57
  17. DKNG -3.54
  18. INTA -3.16
  19. U -3.13
  20. NVDA -3.04

C) Minor Damage

  1. ANET -2.56
  2. TTWO -2.53
  3. CRWD -2.49
  4. AEHR -2.12
  5. PCOR -1.96
  6. NARI -1.87
  7. TTD -1.63
  8. ASAN -1.60
  9. ONON -1.16
  10. ABNB --0.64
  11. AVAV -0.59
  12. MPWR -0.57
  13. SE -0.51
  14. ARRY- 0.44
  15. ENPH -0.28
  16. SEDG -0.20
  17. ZI -0.11
  18. TMDX -0.08
  19. S -0.07

D) No Damage to Speak Of

  1. PI +4.05%

  2. SMCI +2.84

  3. MBLY +2.84

  4. TGLS +2.72

  5. PERI +2.47

  6. FRPT + 1.83

  7. TSLA +1.47

  8. GTLB +1.38

  9. NXT +1.17

  10. BRZE +1.04

  11. FOUR +1.04

  12. FVRR +0.35

  13. MRVL +0.32

  14. LTH +0.29

  15. NFLX +0.12

So a few questions:

  1. Was this just a market that had run a ways letting off some steam - or the beginning to a full blown change in direction.

For now I am going with the blowing off steam thingy.

  1. Will there be additional follow-up tremors?

In my humble opinion most probably and at least intermittently.

  1. Why were some stocks impacted more so than others?

Perhaps those most effected were the ones who might have run the most and pushed investors into a profit taking frenzy.

Perhaps the further from the epicenter of investor confidence. the thinking was that recent runs mixed with upside and potential had still left some meat on the bone - so these companies were left alone. In conjunction with this line of thought there might be some companies among the lessor damaged group that had already been mauled to the point that no further mauling was necessary.

Just like the 50 monitors contained within the Yellowstone Seismic System, the individual investors on the Growth Discussion Boards represent a sort of network of the Market Seismic System. Obviously the more input you get the better your analysis can be. Unfortunately we don’t work that way. Sigh! At any rate - tomorrow will continue to provide additional data that might help formulate their individual investing plans. My current plan - is that any continued sell-off to the same degree as today will probably trigger a couple of entry points for two Scout Team Positions and One Bench Level add.

All the Best,
BDH Investing


Squeeze day in Affrm , upst, carvana … looks selling upst at 20 looks bad call with today upside … hoping come back tomorrow

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