**How the Computer Chip Shortage Could Incite a U.S. Conflict With China**
**A war game and study by a think tank illustrate how dependent the world is on Taiwan’s semiconductor foundries.**
**By Julian E. Barnes, The New York Times, Jan. 26, 2022**
**The war game scenario conducted by a Washington think tank began with a sudden failure at three Taiwanese semiconductor foundries that make high-end computer chips used in such items as smartphones, automobiles and military equipment.**
**The halt in production raised questions of whether a cyberattack by Beijing was responsible — touching off an international crisis between China and the United States that the researchers said could grind the global economy to a halt and incite a military confrontation....**
**Even if Congress approves new government investments in America’s microchip production capacities, matching Taiwanese expertise is years away, if it is even possible...** [end quote]
This was only a war game, but it shows how China holds the upper hand in controlling Taiwan’s unique lock on the most sophisticated chips. Taiwanese chips are the smallest and fastest, and its foundries account for 92 percent of the most advanced designs.
Taiwan’s chips are far more important to the U.S. than Ukraine.
My WAG is that China will move to take over Taiwan when Russia moves to take over Ukraine, dividing American attention.
It is rather ridiculous that both China and USA do not have their own chip production capability.
High-end fabs have become ridiculously expensive. I’ve heard multiple times that the bleeding edge fabs today can be afforded by only 3 companies: Intel, Samsung and TSMC. In a generation or two only Samsung will be able to afford it (due to South Korean national backing).
But the fabs are only part of the story. It’s not like sand comes in one side and packaged chips out the other. Ingot manufacturing and slicing into wafers. Die slicing and test. Packaging and more test. Manufacturing of the masks. If a single chip had a passport with it, by the time it becomes a usable chip the entry stamps it would have would be very impressive.
It is rather ridiculous that both China and USA do not have their own chip production capability.
Both China and the US do have our own chip making capacity. Neither of us have in our semi corporations have the node abilities yet of TSM. Meaning TSM has small nanometer abilities.
The auto companies depend on larger node nanometer capacity which is also not meeting demand.
<Why would China destroy the source of sophisticated chips that it uses and needs?>
China would most certainly NOT physically damage TSMC. They want Taiwan to be ruled by China, not to destroy its productive capacity.
The most likely strategy is to threaten Taiwan until the Taiwanese government “invites” the PRC into the government, much like Hong Kong. The takeover will be diplomatic, not violent, except perhaps on a small scale.
The management of TSMC will obediently follow the government, as corporate managements do all over the world.
The management of TSMC will obediently follow the government, as corporate managements do all over the world.
Wendy
Taiwan is not Hong Kong. Not by a long shot.
Where Hong Kong is ‘right there’, connected to the mainland (and was after all on a 99 year agreement with the UK that expired), the island, the Republic of China, is ‘out there’, 100 miles away. No 99 year agreement. Across a blue water strait that is ‘regularly’ transited by other nations’ ships, most notably USA.
From what little bit I know about the folks who identify as Republic of China “islanders”, they are not inclined to just “go along” with a CCP gentle takeover. They are quite independent in their attitudes. (Not only no, but HE11 no.)
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The management of TSMC will obediently follow the government, as corporate managements do all over the world.
Wendy
Taiwan is not Hong Kong. Not by a long shot.
In accordance with the Law, the male citizens of the Republic of China are obligated to take military service. A man aged 18 starts his military service day from January 1 of the following year and is discharged on December 31 of the year he turns 36, called the Male's Service Age.
Also they live in a densely populated urban high rise environment perfect for ambush defense by trained troops and a nightmare for attacking troops. Stalingrad multiplied methinks.
It’s not like sand comes in one side and packaged chips out the other. Ingot manufacturing and slicing into wafers. Die slicing and test. Packaging and more test. Manufacturing of the masks. If a single chip had a passport with it, by the time it becomes a usable chip the entry stamps it would have would be very impressive.
All true. Except you forgot one part. The Electronic Design software.
It has to be updated for every single little change in the chip making design rules.
It does no good to have a newer/better transistor design in a new FAB if there is no chip layout software that knows about it and supports it.
The leaders here are Synopsys and Cadence – both US companies who would potentially or are currently subject to US export control. The distant 3rd company is Mentor Graphics, a US company bought by Siemens last year.