Year End #12: Small positions - PSIX

I’m next going to talk about some small positions. These will be comments on five stocks which are all less than 1% positions, which is truly tiny for me They are:
PSIX
AMBA
AMAVF
SCTY
AEYE.

First, PSIX, a maker of alternate fuel engines. I originally got into PSIX at the end of March 2013, buying at prices between $26 and $31, (and that’s when I became notorious for asking why anyone would buy WPRT at $29 when they would get PSIX, in the same business, for the same price. WPRT is now at $3.60, PSIX is at $46.00. I wasn’t a genius: PSIX was solidly profitable, and WPRT, although irrationally and continuously pushed by MF, was solidly losing enormous amounts of money).

I bought some more PSIX in the $40’s in July 2013, and started selling between $60 and $74 (one sale actually at $80, but it was an outlier) in November 2013. I bought and sold a little afterwards, finally selling out completely in July 2014 in the $60’s because growth had really seemed to flatten out, in spite of their increased capacity in their new factory, and although they seemed to be doing good things, and although I really had liked the company. And they also had a very high valuation.

Then in mid-Dec (last month), I bought back the little position I have now at $45.50. The stock had fallen way back because of the fall in the price of oil, but they had gotten their first sale for on-road, which would allow them to diversify from their current market of fork-lifts, generators and stationary engines, etc. They also had had excellent Sept quarter results. In the four weeks since, the price has gotten up to $54 (from my purchase price of $45.50), and closed this week back at $46.

I am reluctant to add to the position for two main reasons. First, the continuing weakness in oil. I have no idea how long it will last, and while Solar City, for instance, is only peripherally related to oil prices, as electricity is not made by burning oil, in this country at least, PSIX’s business is probably very related to being cheaper than oil. The second reason is that this is a stock which is not very liquid and has wide spreads, and I’ve been trying to reduce my exposure to such stocks.

Here are the results of their 3rd quarter from the release. Please note that here the ADJUSTED earnings, which are a lot LESS than Gaap in this case, are still the ones to use (as always). Also note that this company is doing very well, and is now down to more reasonable valuations.

Net sales up 45% year over year, 13% sequentially

Adjusted net income of $4,365,000 or $0.39 per diluted common share

Net income of $8,431,000 or $0.68 per diluted common share

Power Solutions International, a leader in the design, engineering and manufacture of emissions-certified alternative-fuel and conventional power systems, today announced its financial results for the third quarter.

Third Quarter 2014 Results
Net sales for the third quarter of 2014 were $93,972,000, an increase of 45% from $64,628,000 in the third quarter of 2013 and a 13% sequential increase from $83,378,000 in the second quarter of 2014. Contributing to the sales increase was continued growth in the Company’s heavy-duty power generation systems and aftermarket parts sales. Also contributing to net sales in the period were sales of approximately $6.3 million from Professional Power Products, Inc. which was acquired on April 1, 2014.

Operating income was $7,519,000, an increase of 82% from $4,122,000 in the third quarter of 2013, and a sequential increase of 28% from $5,893,000 in the second quarter of 2014. Operating margin of 8.0% in the current quarter compares to 6.4% in the comparable prior year period and 7.1% in the second quarter of 2014.

“Our results this quarter demonstrate the resilience of our business model and market opportunities,” stated Gary Winemaster, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Power Solutions. “Solid demand across our end-markets drove strong sales growth and attractive gross margin expansion.”

Winemaster continued, “We reached a critical milestone in our on-road efforts this quarter, with Navistar’s announcement that they will use the PSI 8.8 liter engine for an alternative-fuel option in their ICC school bus product line. We believe this design win is the first of many to come and demonstrates the strength of our products and strategy. By focusing on medium duty fleets and offering a complete drop-in power system solution, we enable OEMs to introduce alternative fuel options inexpensively and quickly.”

Other income for the third quarter includes a non-cash gain of $858,000 resulting from a decrease in the estimated fair value of the liability associated with the warrants issued in the Company’s April 2011 private placement. In addition, other income for the third quarter includes a non-cash gain of $3,208,000 resulting from a decrease in the estimated fair value of the contingent consideration liability recorded in connection with the acquisition of Professional Power Products, Inc.

Net income for the third quarter of 2014, which includes the warrant revaluation adjustment and contingent consideration liability revaluation, was $8,431,000, or $0.68 per diluted common share. This compares to a net loss of $9,981,000 or $0.97 per diluted common share for the third quarter of 2013, which also includes a warrant revaluation adjustment.

Net income for the third quarter of 2014, adjusted to remove the warrant revaluation impact and contingent consideration liability revaluation was $4,365,000, or $0.39 per diluted common share. This compares to adjusted net income for the third quarter of 2013 of $2,624,000 or $0.24 per diluted common share, which has been adjusted to remove the warrant revaluation impact.

Saul

For FAQ’s and Knowledgebase
please go to Post #4941

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Hi Saul,

Below are my Q3 notes from the earnings & conference call. I believe I did post it on the boards back then, but reposting as a refresher. This is a small position for me and I did add a bit to it around $47. Longer-term it looks like they will do well, but I agree that in the short-term they may suffer because of low oil prices, which may stay low for longer than what most analysts might expect.

I had ended this report with the following:
I would need it to be in the PEG ratio of 1.5 or less to add to my position. I will continue holding on to my modest position but I ‘m not adding to my position at these prices. I would add around the $50 to $55 mark if the stock gets there sometime before the next earnings announcement.
Right now, I would think anyone interested in starting a position would be well served to wait for Q4 release and then take action. Q4 will probably tell us how they are weathering the oil downfall and whether or not the market is going to drop their valuation further.

Anirban

Press release: http://investors.psiengines.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=…

Transcript: http://seekingalpha.com/article/2654665-power-solutions-inte…

Earnings Highlights.

  1. Revenues of approximately $94M, up 45%, over Q3 2013 revenue of $64.6M. Revenues in Q3 14 up sequentially 13% over Q2 14.

  2. Strong growth driven by continued growth in the sales of heavy-duty generation systems & aftermarket parts sales. Professional Power Products Inc which was acquired in April 2014 contributed about $6.3M to the top line.

  3. Net income of $8.4 M up 82% from $4.2M in Q3 2013; sequential increase of 28% from $5.9M

  4. Adjusted EPS went up to $0.39 versus $0.24 in Q3 2013.

  5. Gross margins improved to 19.8% versus 19.1% in Q3 2013. Increase in margin was attributed to favourable shift in product mix.

  6. Their on-road segment has made good headway with Navistar announcing the use of PSI’s 8.8L propane fuel engine for an alternative fuel option in their ICC school bus product line. This is a good win as this will probably help them win designs at other OEMs.

  7. Reaffirmed full year 2014 revenue for $330 - $360 M. Offered outlook for 2015 & 2016 in the call. 2015 was projected to have revenue of $480-$500M, and 2016 of $580-$620M. The 2015 & 2016 guidance does not include revenue possible from the JV activities in China.

Conference Call Notes.

Gary Winemaster started the call with a discussion around the situation with Oil prices. He noted that while natural gas price have been fairly steady around the $4 mark, the price of oil has fallen around 20% in the past 3-months (crude oil is hovering around $80 mark). Gary made the point that while the drop in oil prices may slowdown the exploration activity, their gen. set opportunity is not driven by exploration activity but by existing and producing wells that are producing flare gas. There are over a million oil wells in the US alone and the economic opportunity is to use the free natural gas to power generators/compressors that are already operating at these well sites.

Gary also noted that their opportunities are not limited to flare gas. Other key areas include:

  • Forklifts and this one is set to accelerate with NACCO ramping up in 2015
  • Aerial lifts and sweepers
  • Aftermarket parts, which become a big contributor as the install base increases

On-road opportunity.

  • Gary said that they haven’t seen any slowdown in demand with the recent fall in oil prices. He believes that OEMs are making decisions looking at the long-term and it is expected that the spread between diesel and CNG will be about 50%.
  • On-road is expected to contribute $30M in 2015.
  • The Navistar launch is going to contribute towards the $30M revenue. Its interesting how they approach these engine mix. Typically, they work with Navistar’s customers to figure out the demand, in particular with lead customers and this ensure a good visibility into their sales pipeline.

On the LNG power generator market.

  • PSI believes that it will continue to take market share, with some increase in the share of the stationary business market but most sales still coming from the oil & gas side. He also said that in 2016 they should be seeing sales in China. Gary believes that the wellhead flare gas market is still in its infancy. The LNG gen. set sales accounted for about 35% of total revenues.
  • Countries like China are taking note of what the US is doing with respect to flare gas. China has more flare gas than US and 80% of the market is controlled nu CNPC and Sinopec and both have mandates to replace diesel engines wit natural gas engines.

On forklift opportunities.
+PSI management didn’t go into the details of their deals with major OEMs in China because of confidentially reasons. However, they noted that they are dealing with the major OEMs in China, that they have tailor made products for this market, and that this market opportunity is bigger than the forklift US market.

  • They are doing business with 8 of the top 12 forklift manufacturers.
  • Sell to the three largest in Korea
  • Sell to the largest manufacturer in Japan.
  • They have not targeted Europe because of the economic problems there, instead focusing on North America and Asia (smart move!).

Concluding Thoughts.

Let’s start with some valuation.
Stock Price (Nov 14, 2014 close) = $65.92
TTM Adjusted EPS = 1.18
Trailing PE = 69
Trailing PS = 2.9

On a trailing PE basis, PSI is not cheap. However, the company is showing some solid growth. Comparing TTM at Q3 13 versus now at Q3 14, we see that the business has grown revenues at about 32%. Earnings have also grown at about 32% and Cash Flow from Operations have grown at 48%. That’s pretty solid.

Now, in the past 3 quarters, PSI has bought in revenue of around $244M. They reiterated 2014 revenue in the $330-360M range and in the call stated that they expect to hit mid-point. Assuming a target 2014 revenue of $345M, they are looking at Q4 revenue of $100M versus Q4 2013 of $61.5M. That would be both solid growth sequentially and YoY. Of course, if they do better than mid-point it would be even better. Also, note that at mid-point we are looking at a FY 14 versus FY 13 growth of 45% in revenue. I would expect about a similar growth in earnings, if not more. Assuming the business can keep growing earnings at around 35% rate over the next 2-3 years, we are looking at a PE to Growth (PEG) ratio of around 2. Still a bit expensive IMO.

Overall though, I like how these guys are running the business. They are growing it well, focusing on profitability, building one market opportunity at a time. They sounded very confident in the conference call. In the next 3-5 years they are expecting to cross over $1B in sales. So far, I think the execution is great and management has a lot of skin in the game. The stock though appears to be on the expensive side. I would need it to be in the PEG ratio of 1.5 or less to add to my position. I will continue holding on to my modest position but I ‘m not adding to my position at these prices. I would add around the $50 to $55 mark if the stock gets there sometime before the next earnings announcement.

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Thanks Anirban.

I’m next going to talk about some small positions. These will be comments on five stocks which are all less than 1% positions, which is truly tiny for me

In thinking about it, the reasons I’ve kept positions small may be very useful for discussion.

Saul

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