Michigan fairs the worst, with 8 of the 15 being located there. Flint MI is #1.
Rank Metro Area Change Odds of loss
1 Flint, MI 83% 45%
2 Monroe, MI 84% 44%
3 E Stroudsburg,PA103% 46%
4 Detroit, MI 91% 44%
5 Rockford, IL 67% 39%
6 Kokomo, IN 68% 39%
7 Saginaw, MI 77% 40%
8 Bay City, MI 81% 40%
9 Mansfield, OH 82% 40%
10 Toledo, OH 78% 39%
11 Warren, MI 99% 42%
12 Lawton, OK 74% 38%
13 Jackson, MI 102% 42%
14 Lansing, MI 95% 41%
15 Cleveland, OH 77% 38%
Alternatively, it’s a list of the 15 places you’re least likely to overpay for housing, and while I can understand intercst’s reluctance to even consider Flint, there’s a lot more going on in Cleveland than meets the eye, especially if you’re a foodie or fine-arts type.
I dunno about intercsts’s reluctance, but I won’t consider Flint either. I’ve seen winters in Indiana…
Population has been moving south (and west) at least since WW2.
Deschenes and Moretti examined county death records throughout the United States and looked at mortality associated with extreme cold and heat.
“Extreme weather events, mortality, and migration” www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/rest.91.4.659
They found both types of events killed; however heat waves displaced deaths with a drop in mortality after the heat wave so that “there is virtually no lasting impact of heat waves on mortality.” On the other hand, extreme cold events resulted in approximately 0.8% of all deaths in the US. In addition they estimate that “the average person who died because of cold temperature exposure lost in excess of ten years of potential life.”
The authors note that the US population has been taking advantage of this difference with their southern and western migration patterns, writing “each year 4,600 deaths are delayed by the changing exposure to cold temperature due to mobility.” They estimate “3% to 7% of the gains in longevity experienced by the U.S. population over the past three decades are due to the secular movement toward warmer states in the West and the South, away from the colder states in the North.”
Population has been moving south (and west) at least since WW2.
But for how long can this continue? There were water problems even before the latest drought cycle kicked into high gear, and assuming you’re not a science-denialist, it’s just going to get worse. The coasts aren’t much of an option either, considering some neighborhoods already flood on a daily basis, and the entire gulf coast has a big-arse hurricane target painted on it.
