2022 has arrived (ver 2)

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
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Happy July 4th!!

At the start of the year, I made a Carpe Diem! post with a bunch of ideas

https://discussion.fool.com/ot-2022-has-arrived-35014220.aspx

At the time, I had no idea how either the market, or how the picks would pan out.

Since the market has tumbled badly, I have decided to try a mid-year edition of the Carpe Diem! concept.
There was a shipping idea (Flex LNG (FLNG)) last time around. FLNG is still holding up quite well. Other shipping ideas have not held up quite as well.

  • Container shipper Zim Integrated (ZIM)
    Not as large as container shipping giants MSC or Maersk. But has a less competitive relationship with the two shipping giants as it is part of the 2M alliance (which include MSC and Maersk). Zim holds the 10th spot in TEU (twenty-foot equivalent units) capacity, but is different from the rest of the Top10.
    Different how? Different, in that ZIM leases the majority of its vessels from small or large third party entities. Nice dividend payout while you wait - 20% of net income in Q1, Q2 and Q3, and Q4 includes a “top-up” element so the dividend is 30-50% of net income. Just be aware of Israeli tax withholding of 25%.

  • Bbb, or Brazilian beer bet, Ambev (ABEV)
    Repeat idea from the start of the year. Is the US economy going into a recession? Maybe. Is the Brazilian economy going into a recession? Possibly. Will people stop drinking beer? Um!, … probably not drastically. Investing thesis foe ABEV: Buy below $2.75/sh and sell between $3.15 - $3.25/sh, (rinse-and-repeat)

  • C is for Canada. Buy a Canadian bank … like The Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS)
    Unlike their US counterparts, Canadian banks have less restrictive ratios and seem to be better run businesses. BNS has dropped about $13/sh in 2022. Recover half that drop, plus one or two dividend payouts, and that’s somewhere in the neighborhood of a 13-15% return.

  • Ferroglobe (GSM)
    Silicon and specialty metals producer. Company struggled right after Covid pandemic. But got bailed out with some assistance from govts in Spain and France. GSM mgmt seem to be working to improve the
    company, including workarounds for Ukraine inputs.

Keep an eye on the digits and pets today
HohumYNWA

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At the time, I had no idea how either the market, or how the picks would pan out.


How do I say this with zero snark?

Why are they picks then? Why would they be picks for you? Why would they be picks for anyone else?

I get you have no fiduciary responsibility here. But still.

I get people come up with very elaborate ideas etc with back testing. But are wrong often.

I get I come up with scat information. I get when called on it I answer with my basis in thought to a degree. This round I have been more on target than most. If not all here. I am not making picks. Other than Intel. One person who got into Intc I suggested she get out closer to the top suggesting there would be a fall in the markets.

I do not understand what you are doing. I do not under the idea behind offering carpe diem picks.

carpe diem, used to urge someone to make the most of the present time and give little thought to the future.

The picks are along the lines of your respected expertise in shipping. That is not really carpe diem for the readers.

I am just shaking my head.
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@Leap1,
Normally, I would respond to a post.

But, in your comments, I sense … bitterness

Therefore, …

I will take care of other items and later enjoy a fireworks show
HohumYNWA

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Your comment is snarky.

There is no bitterness on my part.

I do not see why you are posting stock picks that do not work. Or more aptly put you are getting wrong.

I dont take advice from you. I have no material reason to be bitter or hold anything against you.

I think you need to think before you post stock picks.

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Leap1 - I am just shaking my head.

I don’t think your post adds much value. It only speaks of how you look at things personally. And yes, you expressed it in a snarky way. Why bother sharing?

I’m shaking my head as well…
'38Packard

Happy Fourth!!!

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38,

Insisting that thought be put into public stock picks is just being responsible.

I do not care if you think it is cool to give stock picks that go south.