Quick here, as already behind and will forget altogether if I don’t do it now.
2022 recap:
Jan -4.5%
Feb -1.2%
Mar +.09% (ok, call it 1%!)
Apr -10%
May -14%
June -17.5%
July -16%
August -15%
September -14%
October -12.3%
November -9.9%
Dec -9.9%
Those were not monthly totals, but rather how up/down I was YTD, at end of each month. I started 2022 at an ATH from a great 2021 finish, so I entered 2023 effectively about 10% off my ATH still.
2023
Jan -0.5%
Things actually got worse first day of Feb or so, and now about the same still.
What did I do?
In a nutshell, not much except short the indexes and keep a bunch of cash, which continues to be my current strategy.
REMINDER: My totals are cumulative…and represent my YTD number, and not how I did for the month. No particular reason (ok…I am lazy about it).
Mostly I don’t care enough to track it, at least until I start getting new ATH’s again. Speaking of which, I am 8.1% away from my ATH, set at end of 2021. Technically, I think I was up 1% or so at end of March 2022, so I think I did breach the ATH but forgot to mark it in the ATH thread. Either way, roughly the same number.
I experimented more with options in Feb, with mixed results thus far, with puts on GLBE, NVDA, and RSP (the equal weighted version of SPY). If I can get a good week or two negative pressure on the market, I think they end in the green, but I am considering it an learning experience, and I only put 1% of port at risk.
Otherwise I am essentially short the indexes, more heavily weighted to SPY, then DIA, then QQQ. To the tune of about 65% short and rest in cash.
The BTFDers just want a time machine to 2016-2021 when they could throw darts and buy lambos, but the free govt money has dried up, QE has turned to QT, inflation is persistent, and the macro environment feels weird. Like a guy that just mixed beer and liquor before 5pm during a flag football game.
I want to go long. Very much so. But want my 52 wk low entry prices. And so I wait.
This is more involved than I think I want my trading lifestyle to be. Mostly because I am more comfortable being long and not looking. Being short puts you on edge. So I would like a capitulation sooner rather than later.
I can see a future where I am 80%+ long, with 12-18 month type timeframes (but always with an exit price in mind) and maybe with the rest I keep some macro plays and/or options and/or move into futures, etc… Not there yet though. Baby steps.
someone brought up “Bear is 12x” which is getting to be a bit of a tired refrain, as so much of the growth from 2017 to present is all in one year of 2020.
So here is mine, as my old posts are in a deleted folder somewhere deep in the TMF storage vaults:
I wasn’t posting a lot in 2017, so you kind of just have to take my word for it, but from what I can see my real return that year was in neighborhood of 37%. I exited NVDA earlier in the year, and started my TTD investments later in the Spring. Was probably in/out of a whole bunch of other stocks too, but those were the main catalysts. Would have finished much higher, but TTD crashed in Nov 2017 due to an ER miss/snafu from normally on-the-ball CEO Green. I think he really learned from that, and sandbagged harder ever since.
So my stats should look something like:
2017 37%
2018 46%
2019 60%
2020 78%
2021 79%
2022 -10% (rounding up as the others are even numbers)
2023 YTD is 5% (rounded up again)
I believe this comes out to only 9.5x which definitely proves once and for all time that Bear’s investing style is obviously superior to mine. However, Saul only at close to 5.5x, which definitely proves once and for all time that Dreamer’s investing style is obviously superior to his.
I get a kick out of the fact that Bear has lapped Saul.
Of course, no one seems to post just about every trade in real time as I do on TMF boards, but hey…no one lies on the internet.
i am not trying to say you are wrong. i think when you are comparting these results also will show different conclusions. if you compare beginning of 2022 may be diff results. if you compare once bear market over he might beat you again.
Those are YTD numbers.
April i finished at 3% even, so down slightly, mostly due to yesterday and today.
Two days ago i was at near 5% up…oh well.
Looks like i piled on the shorts a bit early, but sure feels like indexes are a house of cards and Fed meeting soon and possibly another interest rate hike. Another bank might have just failed. Businesses raising prices on lower demand.
too busy to deal with this later, so quick update now with 24 min in session to go!
May now at…wait for it…3% YTD.
I was up at a YTD high, I think at two different points in last two weeks.
Hard to keep track of the gyrations.
With a down day today, I clawed back to a whopping 3% YTD. Yay me.
No change in my thought process that this is a house of cards on the top floor of a teetering skyscraper, falling towards shark and alligator infested, yet still ice-covered, waters below. And the house catches fire on way down, too.
It just doesn’t “feel” like that at moment, and I don’t know if skyscraper is already leaning or will start soon or in August or November. Just feel I will be correct in time enough for this year to be salvaged with decent gains.
That’s the hope anyway.
In retrospect, I should have played a number of stocks I like since 2022 lows (June or Oct or Dec). Woulda coulda shoulda.
These are current YTD numbers, not how I did that month.
I know the day isn’t over, but barring dramatic further moves in either direction, this is the likely final number.
Jan -.5
Feb up 2.2
Mar up 3.2
April 3%
May 3%
June -2.5%
Ugh.
June was so bad that it pulled me negative.
Happy for all you longs (sort of) but things did not go the way I hoped or expected.
Always seems the market goes higher and lower than one thinks possible. Certainly the case here.
From a Macro standpoint, how are things better? Unemployment is/will start to rise, Fed continues to raise rates, and forecasts have generally been somber (at least real economy stocks if not some tech).
I get it…“AI” means everything up. Whatever. Dotcom/broadband boom of 2000 called and wants it’s golf clubs back. Meanwhile, the metaverse is the redheaded stepchild thrown unceremoniously out of a moving car a few states back on this roadtrip.
A couple parting thoughts:
I am always learning. But I think I allowed my new interest in macro to dissuade me too much from taking positions in some stocks at lows in June/Oct/Dec 2022 when I generally was ok with some of the entry prices. I did actually buy some there, but was afraid to hold past 10-15% type gains, bc I expected macro continued to sink everything.
Macro does win out in the end, but it doesn’t move in the time you would like. But a stock at a great price does tend to appreciate.
Based on #1 & #2, I will probably be more aggressive if/when any stocks ever hit good entry points again in my lifetime, regardless of macro backdrop.
I am now 12.5% off my ATH set in Dec 2021 and matched in March 2022.
Been about 18 months of nothing. Blah. Que sera sera.
So we were in a bear market. The macro changed around Nov 2021. As we come out of a bear market, most of Wall Street always has its doubts. The wall of worry. So most miss the first leg of a new bull market.
Historically this far into interest rate hikes, when they are half over, which was late summer last year, that was the time to build positions in tech. Once again big tech has really led us out of this bear market.
So todays news. Wages slightly rising. Spending slightly down. Savings ticking up. Inflation ticking down. What’s not to like. Powell can stay hawkish, but these are now buy the dip moments. At some point we may even hear that “Goldielocks” term.
This is playing out like the end of just about every bear market, and beginning of every new bull market. It’s very healthy to have a lot of doubters, non believers, as most don’t accept a new bull market until well into one. Just as it was smart to respect the change in macro back in Nov 2021, it’s just as smart to respect the change in macro in 2023.
So if you are someone who lost big in 2022 and has made a lot of that back, or someone that was pretty much unscathed and cautious in 2022, but stayed cautious in 2023, it domestic really matter today. What matters is how you play this moving forward. I personally think you keep buying the dips.
You see what you see. Always difficult to pivot as I said. I see a market that dumped for all of 2022, making a comeback and yet so many people waiting for “the other shoe to drop”. There’s a chance though that the shoe won’t drop, that smaller dips like we just saw the last two weeks will occur, and those will continue to be good places to build positions, or get back in along the run.
Missing a 40% run up in tech names(QQQ) to date is hard to make up, and sitting out of “an irrational market”, waiting for this all the become unglued, you might just miss an entire bull run. It happens, I’ve witnessed too many new bull markets that so many doubted, wanted no part of, and they always seem irrational, yet somehow they just keep chugging along.
So if you never get your correction, if we never go back to a “rational market”, whatever that might look like, are you just going to stay out, or stay short?
In January were you of the same mindset? Was the market irrational then when it was dumping everything regardless? That was a great opportunity.
Lots of folks who have largely been in cash, waiting for the markets to drop significantly enough that they feel comfortable buying. Most of them have been waiting for months now for prices to come down.
Markets could drop this year, most likely will.
However I do not expect them to revisit the lows of Oct 2022…EVEN if we get a recession.
There is always a bull market somewhere.
There are also always under-priced value opportunities somewhere. I will give you three that I see right now…
Materials used in infrastructure, construction etc…strong homebuilding and manufacturing construction (nearshoring) happening all over the world
Regional banks - most of the regional banks are solid. CRE risk is still out there though
Disney - Making new lows. top 10 global brand. travel demand is still strong.
Sure, I am talking my book. I have trades in place in each of these three.
Another poor month, and a year that seems to be moving both slowly (when waiting for dominos to fall) and quickly (kids back to school in a couple weeks…ugh).
I am about 13.5% off of my ATH set in Dec 2021 or March 2022…take your pick.
So about 18 months of blah and slightly down.
Glass half full view? Still well above start of 2021, but losing some of those 2021 gains slowly.
No real panic. Not sure if it is a sign of maturity or just better life perspective or a quiet confidence in waiting for the right pitch to hit is more important than FOMO, but I am just not panicked about anything.
I am annoyed.
Annoyed I didn’t hold onto things I bought near bottoms or 52 wk lows throughout 2022.
I have been thinking about things to buy, but keep coming back to the idea they will probably be cheaper soon enough.
Still short, but about 50% cash, so the bleed has been slowing.
Aug may be more of the same. My gut (which hasn’t worked all 2023) says this Q2 was last round of ERs before forecasts get edgier. Q3 actuals will probably be ok, but it is more about when the forecasts start reflecting expected continued/accelerated softness.
With no real catalysts, and Fed probably done raising for now (for good?) the next couple months could be a chopfest but who knows.
Will see what happens. In meantime, I will watch others party like its 2020/2021 all over again.
MONTH +/- YTD % CASH Fear/Greed
Dec 0 0 52.4 38
Jan 9.4 9.4 48.7 67
Feb (4.1) 4.9 27.2 61 (as low as 23)
Mar 0.7 5.6 15.2 50
Apr (5.9) (0.6) 13.9 61
May 11.9 11.1 12.9 62
Jun 7.8 19.9 25.8 84
Jul 14.8 37.6 29.8 78
Not sure how useful the fear/greed index is. Could trim above 70-75 and buy 35 or 30. Check out the chart and see if it is interesting
Friday, I bought slivers of UPST and ENVX. Sold the by-mistake ENPH purchase and pocketed $200 profit.
Earnings galore the next two weeks. For me, UPST is the key. Now at 14% of portfolio. Add in the PGY and ARRM and I have 17% in the personal loan space. I think that if UPST does not disappoint, that we go $77 or 83 to close that distant gap.
Slight bounce as a couple minor longs and ok timing w taking shorts off/on netted me a bit of gains.
Not much else to say and busy today and this weekend, so maybe more later.
Net is that i continue to be early but the news continues to herald the downward direction i expect economy/markets to eventually take.
But i have started buying when target prices are hit, as market isnt treating all stocks the same anymore.
It was mentioned a few times that true market plunges dont seem to take place until rates are cut, as it signals economic trouble usually. But all those signals have arguments for/against. Point is, I was too early and missed 2022 low entries as a result.
If we really do retest 2022 lows again, then i might get proven correct yet still wrong w the missed oppty ytd.
Either way…give me low entries to buy. Seems to be my most comfortable area of investing.
I guess I’ll record another month. Wasn’t good. Hoping that when the Wall Street adults come back from the beach and mountains that we will get some volume and I’ll get some re-entry prices. Anyway:
MONTH +/- YTD % CASH Fear/Greed
Dec 0 0 52.4 38
Jan 9.4 9.4 48.7 67
Feb (4.1) 4.9 27.2 61 (as low as 23)
Mar 0.7 5.6 15.2 50
Apr (5.9) (0.6) 13.9 61
May 11.9 11.1 12.9 62
Jun 7.8 19.9 25.8 84
Jul 14.8 37.6 29.8 78
Aug (12.3) 20.7 71.8 56 (as low as 44)
I continued my July buying on August 2 and 3. Bought high. Then, 8/7 to 8/16 I sold as the Fear/Greed hit its monthly low on 17th. From 8/22 to 8/31 I was buying back. No gold stars on timing. I did sell all my OKE kon 8/31. That had to do with the Magellan purchase. OKE wasn’t broken. Don’t like addition of oil pipelines. Voted against it and bailed out.
After cash, my “top” positions are SPG, 3.3%; ENVX, 2.3%; PSTG, 2.1%; GLBE, 1.8%, Treasuries 1.8% (mature October 15).
Will be looking for buying opportunities in September.
