Quick here, as already behind and will forget altogether if I don’t do it now.
2022 recap:
Jan -4.5%
Feb -1.2%
Mar +.09% (ok, call it 1%!)
Apr -10%
May -14%
June -17.5%
July -16%
August -15%
September -14%
October -12.3%
November -9.9%
Dec -9.9%
Those were not monthly totals, but rather how up/down I was YTD, at end of each month. I started 2022 at an ATH from a great 2021 finish, so I entered 2023 effectively about 10% off my ATH still.
2023
Jan -0.5%
Things actually got worse first day of Feb or so, and now about the same still.
What did I do?
In a nutshell, not much except short the indexes and keep a bunch of cash, which continues to be my current strategy.
REMINDER: My totals are cumulative…and represent my YTD number, and not how I did for the month. No particular reason (ok…I am lazy about it).
Mostly I don’t care enough to track it, at least until I start getting new ATH’s again. Speaking of which, I am 8.1% away from my ATH, set at end of 2021. Technically, I think I was up 1% or so at end of March 2022, so I think I did breach the ATH but forgot to mark it in the ATH thread. Either way, roughly the same number.
I experimented more with options in Feb, with mixed results thus far, with puts on GLBE, NVDA, and RSP (the equal weighted version of SPY). If I can get a good week or two negative pressure on the market, I think they end in the green, but I am considering it an learning experience, and I only put 1% of port at risk.
Otherwise I am essentially short the indexes, more heavily weighted to SPY, then DIA, then QQQ. To the tune of about 65% short and rest in cash.
The BTFDers just want a time machine to 2016-2021 when they could throw darts and buy lambos, but the free govt money has dried up, QE has turned to QT, inflation is persistent, and the macro environment feels weird. Like a guy that just mixed beer and liquor before 5pm during a flag football game.
I want to go long. Very much so. But want my 52 wk low entry prices. And so I wait.
This is more involved than I think I want my trading lifestyle to be. Mostly because I am more comfortable being long and not looking. Being short puts you on edge. So I would like a capitulation sooner rather than later.
I can see a future where I am 80%+ long, with 12-18 month type timeframes (but always with an exit price in mind) and maybe with the rest I keep some macro plays and/or options and/or move into futures, etc… Not there yet though. Baby steps.