2023 Monthly Updates and Port Status

Investment Analysis Clubs Where Angels Fear to Tread
21

October -2%

Basically I had some better timing this Q, especially around PTLO when it went under $14 and then I sold much of the “overweight allotment” above $15.

I honestly can’t remember what else I did, as this whole year has been a blur.
October is the start of the funnest time of year, except for the weather, with the holidays, and we kicked it off with Halloween yesterday of course. I think that most years I have this feeling of “wow…the year went by fast!” but it has been more pronounced this year, and I think a lot of it has to do with the fact that the market rallied and basically the whole investing year has been a wash for me.

Honestly - what a waste of time.
I YEARN for 2016-2020 pre-covid types of investing opps.

Was Dreamer wrong?

  1. yes, especially for talking about himself in 3rd person…jerk.
  2. yes, for not buying and holding the 2022 lows longer than I did.
  3. yes, especially in May-Aug

Was Dreamer right?
4. starting to look like “maybe” might be in the near future. Depends on if we have a year-end rally or continue to capitulate into a recession.
5. yes in many stocks. PAYC just another example. Stock price back to summer 2018 levels, yet probably twice the market cap due to stock comp. So much for the “valuation doesn’t matter!” and “stock comp doesn’t matter!” crowd. LTBH is truly dead for these SaaS darlings from 2017 to present. TWLO, SQ, OKTA, AYX. Waiting for the shoe to drop on stubborn holdouts like MDB, DDOG, SNOW and others that may not have done much in past couple years but haven’t dropped back to 2018/2019 levels (yet).

Plan moving forward?
Still think it is a coin flip on EOY rally vs Capitulation. Why do I expect capitulation? Because I think a recession is coming. Unfortunately, my timing continues to stink. Thus why this whole year has been a wash.

My plan/execution in 2022 and 2023 has been more about conservative port protection/preservation. How did I do? Meh. Smarter moves would have had me collected low single digits via SPG or others off 2022 June or Oct lows, at a minimum. Instead, I am down low single digits each year, and combined about 11-12% off my ATH which occurred both at end of 2021 and again in March 2022.

That’s not good. Not horrible with the context of having been up 40, 60, 77, and 78% in the previous 4 years, of course. But as Janet always said, “what have you done for me lately?”

So if/as market sinks, I will continue to try and have discipline around “target entry prices”. And those are in at least two phases of “I like the price here, long-term” and “oh wow…that is an over-reaction and went farther down than I ever thought it could”.

The key is allowing myself to HOLD THE DARN STOCKS for a solid exit price vs constantly waiting for the world to burn. No one buys the bottom ticks every time, and I have to stop beating myself up when I appear just as human as everyone else in that regard.

So am waiting for the fat pitch. If we get a year-end rally, the index shorts might go back on. I have generally been a horrible performer on index calls and puts, as the options decay faster than the market plays out in my favor. Just feels like gambling.

Two months to go.

Its a new dawn
its a new day
I learn to take what the market gives me
For she will treat me as she may

Dreamer

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22

For the record. September end was +18.4% YTD, 78.3% cash. October end is +15.0% YTD and 86.4% cash (includes 19% treasuries maturing January 30-ish).
I think we go 13,500 on the NASDQ in the next couple of days and then 12,500 in early December. Unless we don’t.

KC

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23

NASDQ at 13,478. But, I think it goes higher for a few days. I went 8% long on SPY in premarket. Intended to be almost a day trade. I know, this is apples and oranges but it just seemed easier to go to SPY. Come on, Fed, keep buying the 10-year.

KC

1 Like
24

Still a couple hours left in trading day, but busy, so you get what you get when I can give it!

Nov was slightly up, so now -1%

Similar, yet generally uninspiring pattern, for me, in 2023 as there was in 2022: an ok start followed by mid-months plummet, followed by scratching/clawing those losses back, all to wind up with “Meh” by the end of the year.

Unless it is a heck of a Dec, but I am not seeing it.
PTLO did a little double/triple bottom thingy in Nov, but never quite got as low as it did in Oct, so possibly the bottom is in. But we will see what happens when recession noise grows. Either way, little burst here at EOM helped earn my a bit over 1%. Yay.

My SPY shorts are flat, which describes the market the past couple of weeks, so no surprises there.

Not positive on allocation, but roughly 20% PTLO, 40% short, 40% cash is close approximation.

I continue to be content to wait for the fat pitch, and at this point that would entail quite a drop for most stocks I like, so this could be a multi-month wait still. Although if a crash does occur, those are usually pretty rapid and brutal and probably only takes 2-3 weeks to get a fresh helping of 52 wk lows. The question remains if/when a drop like that will occur…next week, next month, or July 2024? Dunno. Still feel strongly that recession pricing is coming to a stock market near you and me, and I will wait for it, until something changes my mind.

In work/enterprises, numbers are soft, clients are pushing.
In stock market world, enterprises have leveraged spending cuts, some job cuts, and higher prices (thanks inflation!) to put their best foot forward with increased margins despite the background of generally lower growth.

This does not sustain itself in a recession. Theory, therefore, is that the stocks take a tumble. The Fed doesn’t cut rates when times are good. So lower rates are eventually good for fomo/yolo/momo, but not initially it would appear.

On consumer side, Affirm is crushing it! That’s right…Joe Consumer is spending his little heart out, and has transitioned from his stimmy-era cash hoard to his BNPL-era credit lines. His mortgage bill still stinks, he can’t afford a new place thanks to rates and home prices, and his Tesla practically is a mortgage payment and he can’t afford that either. So he racks up his Best Buy credit line, Affirm credit line, Synchrony credit line…all to keep the auto repairs going, the xmas shopping going, and in general just keeping up with the Joneses.

Yeah. I don’t see that ending well either.

DDOG nearing $40b mkt cap. Ok. Don’t see that ending well either. But not crazy enough to short any tech growth faves, bc we have all seen how irrational their prices can get before plunging back down to Earth.

I sense that in a month I will have some 2024 predictions that feel a lot like my 2022 predictions, in that all the FOMO faves that the usual gang hypes up will produce massive heartburn yet again, those investors will question their sanity and the pointlessness of investing…again.

2024 - the Year of Angst? Dunno. Maybe. Maybe not.

Dreamer

6 Likes
25

[quote=“Oforfive, post:19, topic:87974”]

MONTH  +/-    YTD    % CASH   Fear/Greed
Dec     0        0    52.4       38
Jan    9.4    9.4     48.7       67
Feb   (4.1)   4.9     27.2       61  (as low as 23)
Mar    0.7    5.6     15.2       50
Apr   (5.9)  (0.6)    13.9       61
May   11.9   11.1     12.9       62
Jun    7.8   19.9     25.8       84
Jul   14.8   37.6     29.8       78
Aug  (12.3)  20.7     71.8       56  (as low as 44)[/quote]
Sep  (1.9)   18.4     78.3
Oct  (2.8)   15.0     86.4
Nov   5.0    20.8     42.2


Yes, I was buying in November as noted from time to time.  I did buy the dip on
PSTG which is, momenteraly good.  Now I need to decide on BILL.  Bought that dip
for a +20%, but seriously considering taking that profit Friday.   

Wow, the formatting went crazy.  I guess because I copied and pasted and there was /pre that went missing.  
KC
3 Likes
26

Why Angst?
The stock market will be generous with some and will punish others.
As always.
So all we can do is try to be among the first.
As always.

27

Because I am imagining those spoiled from a 2012-2021 bull market (minus covid crash/recover) who were scarred from 2022 thru early 2023 and who feel that things are finally back to normal will be pulling out hairs if 2022 happens all over again.

That sort of angst.

Dreamer

28

I kept BILL for another day. Concern about how much of the revenue is from interest on the float. But I think we already had that correction, which is the dip I bought. The rate cuts will be small and spaced out. Economic recovery will follow the cuts. Market will bottom after the first cut. So it will be push-pull tug-of-war on increased business activtity (more volume) verus lower interest income (lower rates). I am trying very hard to commit to holding these newly established full positions. Post a note-to-self on the wall. Promise to hold for 3 years sort of thing.

Not that yesterday (Friday) was any event to give any confidence to the market short term. This was a dog and cat and unloved day with gains from the likes of PGY (+16%), STEM (+15%), ENVX (+12%), VFC (+8%), GLBE (+7%) and SPT (+5%). Meanwhile, QQQ flat (+0.3%) and the MAG 7 were 2 up and 5 down. These are sure to last (sarc). NASDAQ Composite remained in the 14,000-14,400 channel another day with slight gain.

My % cash is going to need an * or two. I have actual cash, the January treasury (18.1%) and now SPTS (5.3%) and JEPI and JEPQ. SPTS is a short term treasury ETF and the last two are ETF’s that sell calls against major index stocks. Low beta, high yield. Allow me another digression. DW had to switch her IRA to Interactive Brokers. Over there she gets 5% yield on cash balance. I am getting 0.04% at E*Trade. So I contacted my “Relationship Manager” to see what could be done with my cash sweep account. Answer was " Unfortunately, I do not have the ability to change the sweep account option for your account. I certainly hope you find this helpful!". Well, there was a suggetion to look at ETF’s, and thus the SPTS. But that is a lot clunkier with greater risk. From now on my cash % will include these treasuries and ETF’s.

KC

1 Like
29

That´s life Dreamer, with its ups and downs and those who are afraid of high losses should stay away from the stock market. It is as simple as that.
But this is a very vast, even endless subject.
And Angst (which is a very strong word in German), might be exagerated.
Especially when you can easily avoid it.

30

[quote=“Oforfive, post:28, topic:87974”]
This was a dog and cat and unloved day with gains from the likes of PGY (+16%), STEM (+15%), ENVX (+12%), VFC (+8%), GLBE (+7%) and SPT (+5%). Meanwhile, QQQ flat (+0.3%) and the MAG 7 were 2 up and 5 down.

But Tuesday. QQQ again flat, the MAG 7 were 6up and 1 down. And the dogs and cats? PGY -12.5%, STEM -8.6%, ENVX -6.7%, VFC -3.8%, GLBE +0.25%, SPT - 3.5%.

That is crazy volatility, mostly in unison, from + bigly to - bigly, from different kinds of companies–most similar characteristic is market cap. What to do besides watch and wonder? Well, I took cash and bought PGY. Not investing. Not even trading. Speculation? More like playing black or red. 7.5% of portfolio added. Whatever. And the NASDAQ still, STILL, in 14,000 to 14,400 range.

If I had meds, I’d need to get back on 'em. Absolutely destroyed my quads trying new HIIT routine yesterday; sore and tentative today.

KC

2 Likes