Hey Andy
I’m inserting the data table I use to check the trend in company cash flows so as to see trends. I use primarily the Statement of Cash Flows, as dividends are paid with cash and trending problems in cash does not bode well for future dividends.
To get this data, I use Morningstar Premium (available thru local library), where I can download into Excel a quarterly history of Revenues, Interest Expense, number of shares, Consolidated Funds From Operations (CFFO or operational cash flow), Investing activities (CFFI) , Common Dividends, Preferred Dividends and distributions to non-controlling interest, if any. I subtract that latter two from CFFO to get net CFFO as these two distributions must be paid first before common dividends.
Once the data is loaded, the colored cells are the actual calculations per share of Revenues, CFFO, Dividends, Dividend to CFFO payout ratio and interest expense as a % of CFFO + Interest. This latter measure tells us how much of operational cash goes to debt, and one of the best correlations to future dividend growth rate.
To take out the effect of quarterly fluctuations, I use rolling 4Q in calculating ratios.
Realty Income’s cash flows look as good as they’ve ever looked. The dividend to CFFO payout ratio at 70% is very low for a net lease REIT. Interest expense at 16% is very low for a net lease or any REIT…which typically runs around 20% in the best REITs.
With the sharp up-tick in # of shares outstanding in late 2021and low interest expense tells me O is funding acquisitions…and they’ve had a lot of them…with stock, not debt. Is this a visionary move by management in anticipation of high borrowing rates coming? Did O jump on some RE buying oppotunities? Whatever, it is, its working.
So why the continued price decline and a current yield of 6.2%? Just a guess, but I suspect all highly leveraged financials and REITs are getting hit. If O is as healthy as they appear, this by any definition is a buying opportunity.
NNN is a close cousin, but I haven’t updated their CF numbers yet.
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<--------------------------------------------- Rolling 4 Quarter -----------------------------------------------------------------> |
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% of CFFI |
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Realty Income |
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non-Controlling |
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Interest |
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Comm Div |
Paid with |
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$Millions |
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Common |
Preferred |
Interests |
Total |
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as a % of |
Revenue |
CFFI |
CFFO |
Net CFFO |
to Net CFFO |
Net CFFO |
ROI to |
CFFO/ |
Common Div |
| symbol==> |
O |
Revenue |
Interest |
CFFO |
Net CFFO 1 |
CFFI |
Dividends |
Dividends |
Distributions |
Distribtuions |
# Shares |
(CFFO+ Int) |
per Share |
per Share |
per Share |
per share |
POR |
after Div |
CFFO |
Revenue |
per share |
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| 1 |
3Q13 |
199 |
50 |
124 |
113 |
512 |
107 |
10 |
0.5 |
117.8 |
196 |
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0.55 |
| 2 |
4Q13 |
228 |
51 |
173 |
162 |
121 |
111 |
10 |
0.5 |
121.6 |
192 |
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0.58 |
| 3 |
1Q14 |
222 |
52 |
114 |
103 |
593 |
113 |
10 |
0.5 |
124.4 |
207 |
27% |
1.09 |
2.06 |
0.69 |
0.64 |
88% |
4% |
0.02 |
63% |
0.55 |
| 4 |
2Q14 |
229 |
53 |
185 |
174 |
294 |
121 |
10 |
0.5 |
132.2 |
221 |
26% |
1.08 |
1.86 |
0.73 |
0.68 |
82% |
7% |
0.12 |
68% |
0.55 |
| 5 |
3Q14 |
236 |
53 |
141 |
130 |
167 |
122 |
10 |
0.5 |
133.0 |
222 |
25% |
1.09 |
1.40 |
0.73 |
0.68 |
82% |
9% |
0.01 |
67% |
0.55 |
| 6 |
4Q14 |
248 |
59 |
188 |
181 |
121 |
123 |
7 |
0.5 |
129.8 |
218 |
26% |
1.08 |
1.35 |
0.72 |
0.68 |
82% |
9% |
0.01 |
67% |
0.56 |
| 7 |
1Q15 |
247 |
58 |
118 |
111 |
164 |
127 |
7 |
0.4 |
133.9 |
225 |
26% |
1.08 |
0.84 |
0.71 |
0.67 |
83% |
14% |
0.01 |
66% |
0.56 |
| 8 |
2Q15 |
254 |
59 |
204 |
197 |
711 |
132 |
7 |
0.4 |
138.8 |
232 |
26% |
1.10 |
1.29 |
0.72 |
0.69 |
81% |
10% |
0.02 |
66% |
0.57 |
| 9 |
3Q15 |
259 |
64 |
151 |
144 |
120 |
134 |
7 |
0.4 |
141.7 |
236 |
27% |
1.10 |
1.22 |
0.72 |
0.69 |
82% |
10% |
0.01 |
66% |
0.57 |
| 10 |
4Q15 |
264 |
52 |
219 |
212 |
184 |
140 |
7 |
0.4 |
147.7 |
236 |
25% |
1.10 |
1.27 |
0.74 |
0.71 |
80% |
11% |
0.03 |
68% |
0.60 |
| 11 |
1Q16 |
267 |
61 |
136 |
129 |
295 |
147 |
7 |
0.4 |
154.5 |
250 |
25% |
1.09 |
1.37 |
0.74 |
0.71 |
81% |
10% |
0.01 |
68% |
0.59 |
| 12 |
2Q16 |
271 |
57 |
225 |
218 |
296 |
151 |
7 |
0.4 |
158.4 |
253 |
24% |
1.09 |
0.92 |
0.75 |
0.72 |
82% |
14% |
0.02 |
69% |
0.60 |
| 13 |
3Q16 |
277 |
53 |
218 |
211 |
382 |
155 |
7 |
0.3 |
162.2 |
258 |
22% |
1.08 |
1.16 |
0.80 |
0.77 |
77% |
15% |
0.06 |
74% |
0.60 |
| 14 |
4Q16 |
288 |
61 |
225 |
207 |
728 |
157 |
7 |
11.7 |
175.2 |
255 |
22% |
1.08 |
1.67 |
0.79 |
0.75 |
80% |
9% |
0.00 |
73% |
0.61 |
| 15 |
1Q17 |
298 |
59 |
213 |
206 |
365 |
163 |
6 |
0.6 |
169.3 |
263 |
21% |
1.10 |
1.72 |
0.86 |
0.82 |
74% |
12% |
0.04 |
78% |
0.62 |
| 16 |
2Q17 |
300 |
61 |
247 |
247 |
300 |
173 |
- |
0.3 |
173.1 |
273 |
21% |
1.11 |
1.69 |
0.86 |
0.83 |
74% |
13% |
0.01 |
78% |
0.63 |
| 17 |
3Q17 |
307 |
63 |
179 |
178 |
248 |
175 |
- |
0.8 |
175.4 |
276 |
22% |
1.12 |
1.54 |
0.81 |
0.79 |
80% |
10% |
(0.02) |
72% |
0.63 |
| 18 |
4Q17 |
311 |
61 |
237 |
235 |
342 |
179 |
- |
2.0 |
181.4 |
273 |
22% |
1.12 |
1.16 |
0.81 |
0.80 |
80% |
14% |
0.01 |
72% |
0.66 |
| 19 |
1Q18 |
318 |
59 |
214 |
213 |
493 |
186 |
- |
0.3 |
185.9 |
284 |
22% |
1.12 |
1.25 |
0.79 |
0.79 |
82% |
12% |
0.00 |
71% |
0.65 |
| 20 |
2Q18 |
329 |
65 |
264 |
263 |
297 |
187 |
- |
0.4 |
187.9 |
285 |
22% |
1.13 |
1.23 |
0.80 |
0.80 |
82% |
12% |
0.01 |
71% |
0.66 |
| 21 |
3Q18 |
338 |
67 |
213 |
212 |
577 |
192 |
- |
0.6 |
192.3 |
291 |
21% |
1.14 |
1.51 |
0.82 |
0.81 |
81% |
10% |
0.02 |
72% |
0.66 |
| 22 |
4Q18 |
343 |
66 |
251 |
250 |
272 |
197 |
- |
0.5 |
197.4 |
298 |
21% |
1.15 |
1.42 |
0.81 |
0.81 |
81% |
11% |
0.01 |
71% |
0.66 |
| 23 |
1Q19 |
354 |
66 |
212 |
212 |
499 |
205 |
- |
0.3 |
204.9 |
304 |
22% |
1.16 |
1.40 |
0.80 |
0.80 |
83% |
10% |
(0.00) |
69% |
0.67 |
| 24 |
2Q19 |
365 |
69 |
278 |
277 |
1,076 |
209 |
- |
0.3 |
209.2 |
311 |
22% |
1.16 |
2.01 |
0.79 |
0.79 |
84% |
6% |
0.01 |
68% |
0.67 |
| 25 |
3Q19 |
374 |
69 |
288 |
288 |
395 |
216 |
- |
0.4 |
216.6 |
320 |
21% |
1.17 |
1.82 |
0.83 |
0.83 |
80% |
9% |
0.03 |
72% |
0.68 |
| 26 |
4Q19 |
398 |
71 |
291 |
291 |
1,532 |
222 |
- |
0.3 |
222.8 |
329 |
20% |
1.18 |
2.77 |
0.85 |
0.85 |
80% |
6% |
0.01 |
72% |
0.68 |
| 27 |
1Q20 |
414 |
72 |
265 |
265 |
351 |
234 |
- |
0.4 |
234.2 |
337 |
20% |
1.20 |
2.59 |
0.87 |
0.86 |
79% |
7% |
0.02 |
72% |
0.69 |
| 28 |
2Q20 |
415 |
73 |
249 |
249 |
452 |
240 |
- |
0.4 |
240.9 |
344 |
21% |
1.20 |
2.05 |
0.82 |
0.82 |
84% |
7% |
(0.01) |
68% |
0.70 |
| 29 |
3Q20 |
405 |
72 |
295 |
295 |
309 |
242 |
- |
0.4 |
242.6 |
346 |
21% |
1.20 |
1.95 |
0.81 |
0.81 |
85% |
6% |
0.00 |
68% |
0.70 |
| 30 |
4Q20 |
418 |
74 |
306 |
305 |
921 |
248 |
- |
0.4 |
248.0 |
355 |
21% |
1.20 |
1.47 |
0.81 |
0.81 |
87% |
7% |
0.01 |
68% |
0.70 |
| 31 |
1Q21 |
443 |
69 |
266 |
266 |
994 |
261 |
- |
0.4 |
261.1 |
372 |
20% |
1.19 |
1.89 |
0.79 |
0.79 |
89% |
5% |
0.00 |
66% |
0.70 |
| 32 |
2Q21 |
464 |
70 |
315 |
314 |
1,032 |
263 |
- |
0.4 |
263.7 |
374 |
19% |
1.20 |
2.25 |
0.82 |
0.82 |
86% |
5% |
0.02 |
68% |
0.70 |
| 33 |
3Q21 |
492 |
72 |
389 |
389 |
1,577 |
274 |
- |
0.4 |
274.2 |
392 |
18% |
1.22 |
3.03 |
0.85 |
0.85 |
82% |
5% |
0.02 |
70% |
0.70 |
| 34 |
4Q21 |
682 |
108 |
352 |
352 |
2,835 |
371 |
- |
0.5 |
371.7 |
520 |
19% |
1.25 |
3.88 |
0.80 |
0.80 |
89% |
2% |
0.01 |
64% |
0.71 |
| 35 |
1Q22 |
807 |
121 |
513 |
513 |
1,418 |
438 |
- |
0.9 |
439.2 |
594 |
19% |
1.30 |
3.65 |
0.83 |
0.83 |
86% |
3% |
0.04 |
64% |
0.74 |
| 36 |
2Q22 |
810 |
105 |
743 |
742 |
1,502 |
446 |
- |
0.9 |
446.7 |
602 |
17% |
1.32 |
3.48 |
0.95 |
0.95 |
77% |
6% |
0.06 |
72% |
0.74 |
| 37 |
3Q22 |
837 |
131 |
677 |
676 |
1,609 |
459 |
- |
0.9 |
459.5 |
618 |
17% |
1.34 |
3.16 |
0.98 |
0.98 |
75% |
8% |
0.04 |
73% |
0.74 |
| 38 |
4Q22 |
889 |
70 |
630 |
629 |
3,858 |
471 |
- |
1.3 |
472.0 |
634 |
14% |
1.37 |
3.43 |
1.05 |
1.05 |
71% |
9% |
0.03 |
77% |
0.74 |
| 39 |
1Q23 |
944 |
167 |
731 |
730 |
1,678 |
497 |
- |
1.5 |
498.7 |
660 |
15% |
1.38 |
3.44 |
1.11 |
1.10 |
67% |
10% |
0.03 |
80% |
0.75 |
| 40 |
2Q23 |
1,019 |
178 |
735 |
733 |
2,969 |
515 |
- |
1.6 |
516.7 |
674 |
16% |
1.43 |
3.91 |
1.07 |
1.07 |
70% |
8% |
(0.00) |
75% |
0.76 |
| 41 |
TTM |
3,690 |
527 |
2,773 |
2,768 |
10,113 |
1,942 |
- |
5.2 |
1,946.9 |
647 |
16% |
2.50 |
7.12 |
1.86 |
1.86 |
70% |
8% |
0.11 |
74% |
3.00 |