OK, we all know predicting the market for any given day is a Fool’s errand, but we’re all Fools here, right? So, on Monday the DOW will:
While I voted for “the rout continues”, I would like to extend and revise my remarks: I expect that before market open the great orator may announce “a deal” (“a deal so good, there has never been such a good deal”) with some tiny country or two which has knuckled under to the bullying tactics, and it will be proclaimed as evidence of “the strategery” (mixing administrations here) - and that could affect how the market reacts on any particular day. Which I would expect to be Monday, if they want to stop the hemorrhaging (as even some conservative voices are demanding.)
I went with ‘no idea.’ There is enough potential risk and uncertainty to cause me to keep my IRA overweight cash. About 3 weeks ago I went from about 95% equities in my IRA to about 70% and then stewed for a week or two while the market rallied and I had found another opportunity to prove how bad I am at timing the market. Then my decision was vindicated in a manner of speaking by recent events which caused the etf that I had sold to sink like a stone.
A week ago I was lamenting my move to overweight my cash position as that cash was being left behind by my rallying equities.
Now I am wishing I had increased my cash position more boldly.
At this point I will remain hedged against a deep and enduring crash because I am risk averse by nature.
The stock market is a very complicated beast. I’ve been at it for some 50 years. I read books on all aspects from the Investing Bible to Speculators, to Day Traders, to Options Gamblers, to whatever else I could find. One’s worst enemy is one’s own emotions that overrule rational action. Overtrading by people who don’t know how to day trade is a recipe for disaster. One needs to have an investing strategy and one needs to stick to that strategy. Market swings tend to short circuit rational thinking. I’m not saying this because I control my emotions, quite the contrary, they often screw up my portfolio. Very expensive lessons!
The Captain
Goofy, I love you man but how come there is no “I got the stock market in my pants” option? What is this, amateur hour? You are better than this.
Indeed. “in my pants” has been a fixture in METaR polls since 2008.
Steve
Not for me. Proud member of the iconoclast party since 1903.
Oh, and not for nuthin’ but as of 8:00 tonight DOW futures for tomorrow are down 1400, and the Nikkei 225 has suspended trading because of a 6% decline, hitting circuit breakers.
And the madness continues.
It was down 1500. As of now, 8:52, Dow 30 futures are only down 1200. Of course the evening “news” was full of stock market hysteria, as well as the daily “severe weather” hysteria, and sports hype. Just another day in Shiny-land.
Steve
1903? 1903??? Jesus F.X. Christ. It is supposed to be 1902. What the hell is wrong with you man?