The SVB fiasco is serious, and it’s not likely that the Fed/Treasury cartel will offer an effective solution by Monday morning. Hence, I expect a massive sell-off in everything except precious metals, beginning in the overnight markets Sunday evening.
OTOH, possibly, the sell-down could create some investment opportunities. The food industry continues to interest me. So that’s where my weekend research will be focused.
Arindam
For fun SJIM / LJIM buying SJIM. New kid on the block.
Continue to play GLL / UGL - ZSL / AGQ - NUGT / DUST.
Continuing to play with ETHUSD 4-hour chart. Haven’t lose any bread in a long time.
Continuing to play with BTCUSD 4- hour chart. Haven’t lose any bread in a long time.
Patiently monitoring my portfolios. The SPDRs and Ellevest.com’s matrix.
We live in interesting times. The first thing is to not panic. Could it be going to #$%t, sure, but this is not the same as in 2008. While the ills that have afflicted SIVB do permeate to some degree others, it’s not as pervasive as the great recession leadoff. Sympathetic selling is possible and could be dramatic, yet could just as easily be limited. The problem is that there are many mixed signals, as is to be expected.
First of all, technically, 3800 has been a possible target of SPY so this is not grossly outside the realm of a move. In addition, this is starting OPEX week, aka Max Pain week and as of last Thursday, the market makers had 100’s of millions at risk. A quick rough calculation now suggested correction to now almost even on the Put side. That makes the market makers moves very interesting and possibly supporting retail traders.
But some things to note:
The QQQ to SPY did not dramatically change.
The Russell 1000 Growth to Value shows relative stability. This ratio suggests money going into growth which is still bullish.
Also, there is a big pull out from $TNX, 10-yr Treasury Yield. That often is good for the market.
But alas, the VIX. Peak of 29 and close at 24.80. This is the most concerning part but tomorrow will tell a lot as the VIX could drop quickly. $CPCE is 1.11, a peak but not necessarily capitulation time.
So, long and short, I have prepped some sales orders on some bigger winners (can always go back in)and have prepped some buy orders on some inverse ETF’s. None will fire automatically but are set for rapid execution should I decide to pull the trigger. I was already expecting a decreasing week due to Max Pain, so a more unexpected rapid start but not totally off base. But we will see as the next couple days will prove pivotal. Stay nimble or even just go to cash if you don’t have the time to check things.
Lakedog
Some longs and some shorts is what I’m setting up for as well.
My bet, also, that’s it’s going to be a fast market tomorrow, with lots of head fakes and some buying by the Treasury’s Plunge Protection Team. But the day will end down due to the decades-long structural problems that remain unsolved (or even admitted to), like a debt to GDP ratio that is 2x worse than China’s and 8x worse than Russia’s.
Head fakes are very likely, hence the guns are loaded but no fingers directly on the triggers. The volatility starts:
Early futures from Finviz. VIX down 1.13…expect change.
Lakedog
The Nikkei opened modestly down. We’ll soon see what other markets are going to do. Asian Stock Markets - CNNMoney
Here’s a screen shot of ES, YM, NQ and the 2yr, 5yr and 30yr bonds. [Translation for those who don’t follow futures markets. ES is the June futures contract for the SP500 index. YM = DJIA30. NQ = NAZ100]
Here’s a shot of the March contract.
Yet more translation: The equity indexes are being bid. The longer term bonds are being sold. In sum, nobody is worried about what Monday will bring.
[This morning. Opps. Called that one wrong. But got into SCHW at 47.73. Now ITM on it. Bought some other banksters as well. ]
IB looking for some action so I bought a little DPST at 7.55. It looks a ‘little’ oversold
