A third opinion on the Ukraine war

First opinion: Ukraine is winning
Second opinion: Ukraine is toast, Russia is winning

Of course both can’t be true and the opinion makers don’t have functioning crystal balls. I have my own bias, I want Russia to lose, but what I want is irrelevant to the outcome.

Because the internet’s veracity is dubious I listen for inconsistencies, conclusions based on unproven or fallacious assertions.

Just because aims coincide at any particular moment does not make the parties long term allies. The best example is Roosevelt’s and Churchill’s decision to join forces with Stalin to defeat Hitler. It was a decision taken straight out of Machiavelli’s The Prince. Just because an American is an isolationist does not make him/her/it pro-Putin.

In my opinion Timothy Snyder’s summation of the war is the best I have yet heard.

The Captain

3 Likes

Captain, the video you linked is an hour long. Would you mind briefly describing what his point was?

5 Likes

Al, I hope he can do that. But that is rich coming from you. LOL

If people can not say something succinct and concise time to move on.

??? I almost never post video links.

I am not a lawyer. When you post on the law it gets drawn out. For me that is blinding. I can not get bogged down on details that would flop in the wind in every court room. Only to be told they are ironclad.

I like seeing you around. If that helps.

Oh, sure. Well, sometimes there’s a lot of ground to cover in talking about legal issues. I usually try to make it clear in the first few sentences, though, what my point is.

When posting videos - especially long videos - it’s just nice to have a brief description of what the video is about, rather than a blind link.

9 Likes

YES!!!

I was about to post the same video, which quite usefully is of Timothy Snyder in discussion with the once powerful éminence grise Bill Kristol, a scion of neo-conservativsm in the USA, and one of my undergraduate classmates in Government classes. We rarely agreed.

This is a sometimes brutal and fascinating (Kristol is evolving!) profoundly informative video.

david fb

2 Likes

Snyder is wrong about Ukraine winning in 2022. The only way to win is to topple Putin or he will fight on.

image

Summary:

Transcript:

I highly recommend Snyder’s book On Tyranny.

7 Likes

Yes, I would.

The Captain

1 Like

Very funny :rofl:

Makes me think of Yoda (or maybe a paraphrase): view, or view not.

Pete

2 Likes

Snyder does not have a simple talking point beyond that Ukraine’s existence being problematic/unacceptable to Putin is the crux international issue of our times.

david fb

3 Likes

I think it goes beyond Ukraine with Putin. He wants other European nations and wants the ME.

He is trying an economic gambit that he can produce his way to a better economy. A war time economy and better.

It won’t work because he is printing to pay for the war effort. He does not have the capital markets to print. This is like Germany’s Weimar Republic printing with no easy access to larger capital markets.

If the war ends in the next two years he can spring into a peace time economy. Which would work.

The issue is how bad the inflation gets first. If Russian military pay sinks low enough Putin will be in trouble. If this is not over in two years along with inflation he may be in trouble.

It absolutely goes beyond Ukraine. This is why stopping him here is so important. We either stop him here, or we risk an invasion of a NATO country with all that brings with it. And none of that is good. Unless, of course, you are TFG and you just plan to tell him “do whatever the h*ll you want”. And that isn’t good either.

So if you think the Ukraine situation is messy or expensive or whatever, just wait until what comes next.

2 Likes

Thank you, PucksFool, for the transcript. It was very helpful in learning what Snyder’s views are without having to spend an hour watching the video.

3 Likes

I am hoping the healthiest survive.

I am wishing heart attacks on fascists who have power or want power. Considering how bloody fat one of them is I will possibly be in luck.