I have done a lot of rafting but reading the river takes time and experience, the way you get that is by getting your feet wet and sometimes getting in over your head. Yes I have been in trouble rafting but I always came out smarter on the other side. Arindam, I like learning and am always up for a challenge. But my best lessons have been learned by doing.
Andy
It may not mean anything, but the five day chart on UCO just gave an arc and a green bar.
The 2 month using SimonSez3 has an arc:
Just giving a heads upâŚdoc
edit:
the 20 day is flashing buy and there is a lot of buying volume
UCO vs SCO - Daily charts using OHLC coloured lines as an example.
re: Simon Sez III with two (2) simple rules. We play the game with Simon and when he says do this, we do that.
re: Trending and De-Trending via the 20 ema line.
= = = = = = = = = = = = = =
re: UCO place your mouse on 3/16 and what does Simon say to do
re: place you mouse on 4/14/23 and what does Simon say to do. TIMMMMMMber
re: SCO place your mouse on 3/17 and what does Simon say to do
re: place you mouse on 4/14/23 and what does Simon say to do.
You can single or double click on the chart for a better view.
= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = ==
Never BUY as stock that is De-trending.
I wish you guys the best,
Quill - Simon and Lucas (spider).
Lucas sits high on the perch over looking the charts with me and he says LET THE PREY COME TO YOU.
Quill,
Hereâs my challenge to you. Prove that I havenât coded your trading rules correctly and that Iâm not giving them a fair back-test. Here what I say trading UCO & USO with your rules would have produced using 1500 days of data and an (-8%) stop-loss.
Hereâs that same test but run without a stop-loss. The results are a bit better, but win rate is still no better than a coin flip.
Hereâs a screen shot of some of the trades.
re: Tetter Totter
Okay, going to assume you are talking about Tetter Tottering UCO and SCO, with a bankroll of $10,000.00 ( my 4th grade math skills).
Going to start the Totter Totter No stop loss and trade per Simon Sez III ( trading system) rules using my 9th grade math skills.
Going to start from the âVâ (3/19/2020) as the start since all Swing Traders use this as a starting point in the real werld.
Or run how to make money for just UCO and SCO all by themselves.
why is USO and UCO in this mess.
Quill,
Youâre misunderstanding the points Iâm trying to make.
Youâre a hellavu good trader. No one can take that from you, and no one is willing to try to match your work ethic.
What Iâm questioning --and have questioned for years-- is whether your methods can be put on auto-pilot. From doing a lot of back-testing, Iâd say not. I could be wrong about that, of course. But I doubt it. Creating truly mechanical systems is tough, because markets arenât simple and deterministic, and because I can find instances where your rule sets fall apart. You try to brush them off as âhead fakesâ. But youâve been at the trading game long enough to get yourself out of trouble when it happens. Thatâs not the case with them trying to learn your systems, as the endless questions show when theyâre at the hard, right-hand edge of a chart and donât have enough market experience to make an informed exception to the rule set and back away.
"Simon Sezâ (and its variants, some of which Iâve contributed to) are trend-following systems that offer the same advantages that all trend-following systems offer as well as come with their problems, one which of which is proper position-sizing, which you refuse to address. Another is trade selection, which you also skirt. A third is goals, which are going to vary from investor to investor, specifically, answers to the the questions of âHow much time/effort am I willing to spend, and how much risk am I willing to accept?â
Thereâs even yet a further problem. Namely, how much of anyoneâs success in markets --yours, mine, anyoneâs-- must be explained by ârandomnessâ rather than âskillâ? Reporting a lucky trade or two or hundred isnât proof of anything. A thousand trades over a full market cycle? Even that isnât proof enough that luck played no part, due to the law of large numbers.
Itâs late, even for me on the West coast, and time for both of us to be asleep. âTomorrow, and tomorrow and tomorrow,â as the line from Shakespeare goes.
Arindam
BITQ had a nice move up this weekâŚdoc
Doc,
Actually, BITO didnât have a good week. It closed last Friday at 15.29 and this Friday at 15.53, or a gain of 1.57%. But look at a chart. That gain was gained by suffering the uncertainties of a lot of chop.
What did have a decent week --actually, two weeks-- is the $US, for which the cryptos could be considered inverses. But thatâs a tough contract to trade I feel guilty for ignoring, given its fate and likely decline --if not replacement-- is the single most important fact of our economic lives and our economic future (apart from whatâs happening in Ukraine and the likelihood the US will go nuclear rather than admit it has lost yet another of its endless wars of choice).
