Take a Look at BITO

I think the cryptos are a scam. But they’re tradable, and BITO is a tracking ETF I’ve been in and out of several times (when it was higher) at a profit. To my eye, the chart for it looks good.

https://www.barchart.com/shared-chart/BITO?chart_url=i_16560…

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https://www.barchart.com/shared-chart/BITO?chart_url=i_16560…

https://www.barchart.com/shared-chart/BITO?chart_url=i_16560…

Which is easy to read, I keep an eye on the TSI in the bottom box for a signal that points to “Out of the gate” at the Xover and off to the races.

Now what, when do we buy and when do we sell, stand by. https://schrts.co/NBXBYYIp I hope guys can see the red and green OHLC bars. (chef’s choice). BITO is a fairly new stock whereas I like to see both BITO and BITW. the only thing missing is the 200 EMA and as a guess, it would appear that BITO is way below the 200 ema blue line.

Now let’s look at how a Swing Trader trades BITO using the Simon Sez III two (2) simple rules that an Eight Grader can see and use. https://schrts.co/TfICfMQA

BITO looks ugly, however, my vacuum cleaner comes along and would have had 7 out 7 successful trades with 0 losses with an average of about 4,000.00 profit assuming 1000 shares were purchased.

For fun let’s look at :
https://schrts.co/yzdxSfFB from https://www.barchart.com/story/news/8867471/chart-of-the-day…. It is a matter of just waiting and waiting for the next cycle. In this case, we missed the Bus Gus at around 4.17 @ 5000 shares. PLRX was sitting at $9.31 and still climbing.

Swing Traders have two (2) options being buying and selling stocks for a profit or investing just in several portfolios such as Ellevest.com’s matrix starting with VTI,
or https://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/?gclid=CjwKCAjwwdWVBhA… only the XTR chart is missing. I own all 12 now since 2006.
They all give nice quarterly Dividends. https://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/sector/xle/portfolio OILS and Energy are hot for the time being.

Just rambling. Something to ponder,

Quillnpenn - a poor church mouse scratching for a living as a Swing Trader for over 45 years.
------------ Vision - Multi-Millionaire…Goal - earn 1.3% - 2.5% compounded Daily per the 2.5 percent theory.

2.5 percent theory choices of the day. https://tinyurl.com/mv2f7cjd and piggyback them. eg. . https://tinyurl.com/4ft2uw8y

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_…

Quill,

I love you dearly and you’re a hellva good trader. But your posts are a jumble of misdirection.

First, no one who might benefit from reading our posts --yours, mine, or anyone else’s who posts in this forum-- is going to be betting in the sizes you do. Even at its present low price of $12-$13 bucks and change, to buy 1,000 shares of BITO means making (at least) a $12k-$13k bet, right? If a prudent rule of thumb is to bet no more than 10% of one’s trading fund per trade --as Wm O’Neil advocates-- that would imply AUM of $120k-$130k. That’s a lot of money. More than most beginners have to work with. If bet size is dropped down to something smaller, say, 5% of AUM, then AUM would have to be around a quarter million. YeeowZaah!

Yeah, I’m trading with a million plus, and you’re doing multiples of that. But neither of us got there by making $12k or $13k bets right out the gate. We just didn’t have that kind of money. So let’s drop AUM down to a more realistic level for beginners, which is a total account just $200 to $500 dollars, and let’s work with that limitation.

What’s the rule of thumb for traders for sizing positions? Never risk more than 2% (of AUM) per trade. That’s ‘risk’, not ‘exposure’, which are only the same if the whole position is lost. How does one try to ensure that no more than 2% is lost per trade? Stop losses, right? So, if a bet were to be made on BITO --on the basis of what seems be a favorable chart–, and if account size is $500 dollars, and if max trade size is 10% of AUM, then a reasonable bet on BITO would be 4 shares, trailed by a 2% stop.

Now comes another complication you constantly overlook. You’re retired --as am I-- and we can sit all day in front of a trading screen if we choose. (Or two screens or four screens, or whatever we use for our trading station.) That is NOT the case with most beginner investors. They’ve got a day job, plus family obligations, plus they want a bit of a life apart from the craziness of markets, such as maybe some fishing time. That means they have to do their analysis fast, submit their orders outside of regular market hours, and then hope for the best. This means they have be ruthless with submitting limit orders in an effort to get fills at prices that will give them a margin of safety. It also means they need to be using a broker that implements OCO orders, and TD is the broker that most easily facilitates that.

So, right now, as test run on that idea, I wrote an OCO on BITO. I bid to buy 1 share of BITO at 12.57 (yesterday’s low), trailed with a 2% stop loss and bracketed with a 5% profit target. Click. Click. Click. Easy, peasy. The order won’t execute, because I’m too far away from the market, nor am I much interested in trading BITO today. But I think the process is viable if for no other reason than my daughter ran a trading program doing just. She’d bid low, sold high, and went three months without a losing trade. She executed through Schwab. But I really prefer TD (now owned by Schwab, but really a separate entity that Schwab isn’t going to mess with.)

She chose to stop trading when work became overwhelming and when the weather warmed and she’d rather spend her time gardening or training for an upcoming half Ironman. But that’s a real person example of the viability of being an after-market/pre-market intraday trader, though some of her trades took several days to complete. But often enough, she did get kicked out same day and banked her 2% to 5% profit.

So, this is my challenge to you. Let’s set up a fictional account, with minimal funds --say, $500 bucks-- and call out our intended trades each day BEFORE market open.

Arindam

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Made a typo error for XTR. I should read XRT an S&P Retail SPDR. My bad.

Okay, that sounds like a plan. Fictional, not real dollars.

Did my charts show the red and green OHLC bars?

Going to create a 2.5 % theory spreadsheet form starting with $ 500.00 and follow the numbers down the list. So my first trade I will be aiming for about $12.50 in profits, then reinvest the $512.50 or less towards the next stock. Most likely it will be PLTR because each of the last 4 days, the close closed higher than the previous day. We call it Piggybacking unless I see something different on the premarket charts.

If I get the sale around 3:30 pm, will re-invest by compounding the principal plus the profits towards the next stock. If I see a High/Low Price Marker, or the small “arc’s” buy day after rule, I am going to jump on it.

Around day 122 will be investing with about 5 digits, and around day 215 with 6 digits. On Day 308 investing 1 million dollars.

Here is where students start to get worried.

Day 365 is where you will be finally trading with $4,103,749 and the game is over.

Man, this is like playing poker showing my face cards.

Forget my first choice and forgot to read the rules of which areas to select from. My bad. Glad I don’t work for your company of which I would be fired for misunderstanding the rules.

Feeling a Brainfart coming on.

Quill -

Quill,

Not “fictional”. Real dollar trades in one’s own actual account, but segregated from the rest of the account as if it were truly just a small account with a starting balance of $500 bucks.

Yeah, when you use ‘social share’ at BarChart, the links open and show a chart as you intend it to be seen.

If you want to increase bet size as your account grows, that’s up to you and up to each person who wants to play along. The point of the exercise is that each person might be able to develop a set of rules, or a way of doing things, that made sense to him/her and might be simple enough that others could borrow.

My point is this. I appreciate that TMF hosts these forums. But I also despise the G BoyZ and their pimps for the scam they are running. All of them are crap investors and worse traders who lie, lie, lie about their results and who make their money from selling false hope to the naïve, not from doing actual, real money trades. You know their pitch. We beat ‘the market’ by 3x. Buy our newsletters and you can become as rich as we are.

Well, they don’t even beat what the average mutual fund offers that has the same investing objective. And when fees are subtracted from their supposed returns, a small account will always go broke using their supposed methods, because the actual gains are so pitiful. That’s the one thing Bogle got right. Fees matter. The second thing that matters is the impact on returns of taxes and inflation. The third thing that matters is that losses have to be kept small. The fourth thing is that --as you insist-- the method has to be so simple and obvious that a kid could understand it and do it. Yeah, there’s plenty of fancy and tricky ways to make money. But there are also simple ways, as Ed Sekota suggests.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LiE1VgWdcQM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R1YoSmHp76g

Arindam

2 Likes

Quill,

Both Schwab and Fidelity are running promos. For opening a new account and funding it with $50, they’ll give you $100. That’s an instant tripling of your money.

So I’m going to pretend I did the offer, put up $50, and now have just $150 to work with instead of the $500 I had originally proposed.

More later. Now, I’m headed off to help eight families build a boat.

Arindam

Remember to measure twice and cut once. :o))