I think the cryptos are a scam. But they’re tradable, and BITO is a tracking ETF I’ve been in and out of several times (when it was higher) at a profit. To my eye, the chart for it looks good.
https://www.barchart.com/shared-chart/BITO?chart_url=i_16560…
https://www.barchart.com/shared-chart/BITO?chart_url=i_16560…
https://www.barchart.com/shared-chart/BITO?chart_url=i_16560…
Which is easy to read, I keep an eye on the TSI in the bottom box for a signal that points to “Out of the gate” at the Xover and off to the races.
Now what, when do we buy and when do we sell, stand by. https://schrts.co/NBXBYYIp I hope guys can see the red and green OHLC bars. (chef’s choice). BITO is a fairly new stock whereas I like to see both BITO and BITW. the only thing missing is the 200 EMA and as a guess, it would appear that BITO is way below the 200 ema blue line.
Now let’s look at how a Swing Trader trades BITO using the Simon Sez III two (2) simple rules that an Eight Grader can see and use. https://schrts.co/TfICfMQA
BITO looks ugly, however, my vacuum cleaner comes along and would have had 7 out 7 successful trades with 0 losses with an average of about 4,000.00 profit assuming 1000 shares were purchased.
For fun let’s look at :
https://schrts.co/yzdxSfFB from https://www.barchart.com/story/news/8867471/chart-of-the-day…. It is a matter of just waiting and waiting for the next cycle. In this case, we missed the Bus Gus at around 4.17 @ 5000 shares. PLRX was sitting at $9.31 and still climbing.
Swing Traders have two (2) options being buying and selling stocks for a profit or investing just in several portfolios such as Ellevest.com’s matrix starting with VTI,
or https://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/?gclid=CjwKCAjwwdWVBhA… only the XTR chart is missing. I own all 12 now since 2006.
They all give nice quarterly Dividends. https://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/sector/xle/portfolio OILS and Energy are hot for the time being.
Just rambling. Something to ponder,
Quillnpenn - a poor church mouse scratching for a living as a Swing Trader for over 45 years.
------------ Vision - Multi-Millionaire…Goal - earn 1.3% - 2.5% compounded Daily per the 2.5 percent theory.
2.5 percent theory choices of the day. https://tinyurl.com/mv2f7cjd and piggyback them. eg. . https://tinyurl.com/4ft2uw8y
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_…
Quill,
I love you dearly and you’re a hellva good trader. But your posts are a jumble of misdirection.
First, no one who might benefit from reading our posts --yours, mine, or anyone else’s who posts in this forum-- is going to be betting in the sizes you do. Even at its present low price of $12-$13 bucks and change, to buy 1,000 shares of BITO means making (at least) a $12k-$13k bet, right? If a prudent rule of thumb is to bet no more than 10% of one’s trading fund per trade --as Wm O’Neil advocates-- that would imply AUM of $120k-$130k. That’s a lot of money. More than most beginners have to work with. If bet size is dropped down to something smaller, say, 5% of AUM, then AUM would have to be around a quarter million. YeeowZaah!
Yeah, I’m trading with a million plus, and you’re doing multiples of that. But neither of us got there by making $12k or $13k bets right out the gate. We just didn’t have that kind of money. So let’s drop AUM down to a more realistic level for beginners, which is a total account just $200 to $500 dollars, and let’s work with that limitation.
What’s the rule of thumb for traders for sizing positions? Never risk more than 2% (of AUM) per trade. That’s ‘risk’, not ‘exposure’, which are only the same if the whole position is lost. How does one try to ensure that no more than 2% is lost per trade? Stop losses, right? So, if a bet were to be made on BITO --on the basis of what seems be a favorable chart–, and if account size is $500 dollars, and if max trade size is 10% of AUM, then a reasonable bet on BITO would be 4 shares, trailed by a 2% stop.
Now comes another complication you constantly overlook. You’re retired --as am I-- and we can sit all day in front of a trading screen if we choose. (Or two screens or four screens, or whatever we use for our trading station.) That is NOT the case with most beginner investors. They’ve got a day job, plus family obligations, plus they want a bit of a life apart from the craziness of markets, such as maybe some fishing time. That means they have to do their analysis fast, submit their orders outside of regular market hours, and then hope for the best. This means they have be ruthless with submitting limit orders in an effort to get fills at prices that will give them a margin of safety. It also means they need to be using a broker that implements OCO orders, and TD is the broker that most easily facilitates that.
So, right now, as test run on that idea, I wrote an OCO on BITO. I bid to buy 1 share of BITO at 12.57 (yesterday’s low), trailed with a 2% stop loss and bracketed with a 5% profit target. Click. Click. Click. Easy, peasy. The order won’t execute, because I’m too far away from the market, nor am I much interested in trading BITO today. But I think the process is viable if for no other reason than my daughter ran a trading program doing just. She’d bid low, sold high, and went three months without a losing trade. She executed through Schwab. But I really prefer TD (now owned by Schwab, but really a separate entity that Schwab isn’t going to mess with.)
She chose to stop trading when work became overwhelming and when the weather warmed and she’d rather spend her time gardening or training for an upcoming half Ironman. But that’s a real person example of the viability of being an after-market/pre-market intraday trader, though some of her trades took several days to complete. But often enough, she did get kicked out same day and banked her 2% to 5% profit.
So, this is my challenge to you. Let’s set up a fictional account, with minimal funds --say, $500 bucks-- and call out our intended trades each day BEFORE market open.
Arindam
Made a typo error for XTR. I should read XRT an S&P Retail SPDR. My bad.
Okay, that sounds like a plan. Fictional, not real dollars.
Did my charts show the red and green OHLC bars?
Going to create a 2.5 % theory spreadsheet form starting with $ 500.00 and follow the numbers down the list. So my first trade I will be aiming for about $12.50 in profits, then reinvest the $512.50 or less towards the next stock. Most likely it will be PLTR because each of the last 4 days, the close closed higher than the previous day. We call it Piggybacking unless I see something different on the premarket charts.
If I get the sale around 3:30 pm, will re-invest by compounding the principal plus the profits towards the next stock. If I see a High/Low Price Marker, or the small “arc’s” buy day after rule, I am going to jump on it.
Around day 122 will be investing with about 5 digits, and around day 215 with 6 digits. On Day 308 investing 1 million dollars.
Here is where students start to get worried.
Day 365 is where you will be finally trading with $4,103,749 and the game is over.
Man, this is like playing poker showing my face cards.
Forget my first choice and forgot to read the rules of which areas to select from. My bad. Glad I don’t work for your company of which I would be fired for misunderstanding the rules.
Feeling a Brainfart coming on.
Quill -
Quill,
Not “fictional”. Real dollar trades in one’s own actual account, but segregated from the rest of the account as if it were truly just a small account with a starting balance of $500 bucks.
Yeah, when you use ‘social share’ at BarChart, the links open and show a chart as you intend it to be seen.
If you want to increase bet size as your account grows, that’s up to you and up to each person who wants to play along. The point of the exercise is that each person might be able to develop a set of rules, or a way of doing things, that made sense to him/her and might be simple enough that others could borrow.
My point is this. I appreciate that TMF hosts these forums. But I also despise the G BoyZ and their pimps for the scam they are running. All of them are crap investors and worse traders who lie, lie, lie about their results and who make their money from selling false hope to the naïve, not from doing actual, real money trades. You know their pitch. We beat ‘the market’ by 3x. Buy our newsletters and you can become as rich as we are.
Well, they don’t even beat what the average mutual fund offers that has the same investing objective. And when fees are subtracted from their supposed returns, a small account will always go broke using their supposed methods, because the actual gains are so pitiful. That’s the one thing Bogle got right. Fees matter. The second thing that matters is the impact on returns of taxes and inflation. The third thing that matters is that losses have to be kept small. The fourth thing is that --as you insist-- the method has to be so simple and obvious that a kid could understand it and do it. Yeah, there’s plenty of fancy and tricky ways to make money. But there are also simple ways, as Ed Sekota suggests.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LiE1VgWdcQM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R1YoSmHp76g
Arindam
Quill,
Both Schwab and Fidelity are running promos. For opening a new account and funding it with $50, they’ll give you $100. That’s an instant tripling of your money.
So I’m going to pretend I did the offer, put up $50, and now have just $150 to work with instead of the $500 I had originally proposed.
More later. Now, I’m headed off to help eight families build a boat.
Arindam
Remember to measure twice and cut once. :o))
You guys should give that idea it’s own thread. One of you mentioned the scanner you used. Maybe you could include that too. Appreciate your time, patience and effort…doc
" You guys should give that idea its own thread. One of you mentioned the scanner you used. Maybe you could include that too. Appreciate your time, patience and effort…"doc
Doc,
I’m not sure what idea you’re referring to. Could you be more specific?
Also, there’s this problem. Every investor is unique in his or her own means, needs, goals, interests, and opportunities, so much so, that --as Schwager demonstrates in his series of books on ‘market wizards’-- two traders could being doing the apparent opposite of each other and both be making money, never mind that those who need the most help don’t have much money or time and never mind that “the market” is currently in the process of being blown up, not that there is such a thing as “the market”, but many many, many markets, any one which could easily take a lifetime to master and that this investing/trading stuff is only a small fraction of a proper financial plan which might well not include stock investing at all.
Did you ever read Thoreau’s Walden? Though the book is a paean to self-sufficiency, even he began by borrowing the axe he used to build his cabin. I’d argue the same is true of learning to invest (or to trade). You’ve gotta begin by borrowing the ideas of others, about which Thoreau had this to say “I trust that those who read these pages will not stretch the seams in putting on the coat, for it may do good service to him it fits.”
Therefore, let’s begin with a reading list, the first item of which is Ben Graham’s classic intro to value investing, The Intelligent Investor. That might well be the only book a beginner ever needs, not because of its specifics, which are few and which everyone has to work out for themselves, but because of its common sense overview of the investing process and the inherent irrationality of us humans. From that starting point, the learning paths are nearly infinite, but should include intros to charting, to financial statement analysis, to macro-economics, and to risk management, so that these three questions can be answered:
What? When? How Much?
where the ‘what’ could be currencies, commodities, equities, debt, real estate, collectables, or other things limited only by one’s imagination to see an opportunity and one’s willingness to do the necessary work to benefit from it. In short, the investing game --the trading game-- is what each person wants to make it to be.
“There are no roads but by walking.”
Arindam
I guess it was you, but we could follow along and maybe even try some of the trades…doc
Doc,
Now that “the market” has closed for another day, I can make a reply.
I don’t want anyone to “follow along”. I want them to say, “Hey, I think I can do that.” I want them to find their own ideas, to vet them, to size a position, and then to execute. And this is what I’d predict. Some of their ideas, many even most of them, aren’t going to offer the big bucks that might be hoped for. But if the fundie and charting homework had been done, and if a decent entry had been made, the gig would be profitable enough, on average and over the haul long, to continue doing. But then would also come this realization: “Do I really want to do this investing/trading stuff instead of the dozens of other far more worthwhile things I could be doing with my time and money?”
If someone wants to pretend to invest, but wants to accept no responsibility for their bad market timing, then “passive indexing” is the way to go. If they want others to find their investing/trading ideas for them, they can follow the advice offered in the newsletters published by our dear forum hosts and many, many, many others. But if they really want to fashion for themselves a version of the investing/trading game that matches their own means, needs, goals, interests, opportunities, and time/money constraints, then they’ve gotta blaze their own trail.
What was the obvious biggie in today’s market? That oil crashed, right? Were you scrambling to see whether that presented an investing/trading opportunity? My bet is not. But from market open to market close --except for breakfast-- I was scrambling, and I ended up writing 20 orders. My bet is Quill was doing the same within the framework he’s fashioned for himself. My bet, also, is that anyone who takes investing seriously was doing the same. They were considering possibilities and trying to act on them.
“Yes, beyond a doubt, being on a screen all day is excessive.” But them who do it don’t think so. It’s just another fun day for them made possible by the fact they’re retired and have the time to follow markets. But all day on a screen isn’t necessary, nor is it even the best way to pull more money out of markets than one brings to them. 10-15 minutes per day, if done every day, would far outperform passive investing. (I can point to studies that prove it.) In fact, a sound investing plan --if based on charts with weekly bars and a means to estimate ‘value’-- could be structured as a weekend gig, requiring no more time each weekend then some people spend washing their car or mowing their lawn.
Arindam
I have been trading , but the last three days I was on the road for a funeral. I would have been working SCO today! I’m interested in screening stocks and picking some for trading…doc
"I would have been working SCO today. "
Doc,
Actually, that would have been a tough trade due to markets still being so fast.
The better play --IMHO, of course-- was bottom-fishing. Of the seven trades I did in the oil and energy sector, I lost $0.02 cents per share on one of them, but gained +2, +5, +9, +14, +30, and +45 cents per share, respectively, on the other six. Why? Because the selling was overdone. Again, IMHO, 'natch, not that oil/energy prices can’t/won’t go lower. But energy isn’t something I bet against.
Arindam
doc,
try going shopping at Swing Trade Idea – March 16, 2023 – Swing Trades Delivered
ignore the ugggggly chart and let Simon help you make money the olde fashion way.
Thank you, I will take a look…doc