Adam Jonas, $TSLA Bull Analayst: China Risk

$TSLA bulls, no sweat: Jonas keeps his $1150 price target in place. But for the first time ever, he is cautioning you that Tesla has more to lose in a Chinese freeze out of batteries than other OEMs.…

“. . . the global battery supply chain is arguably less secure than the global oil and gas supply chains.”

- Adam Jonas

:pushpin: "According to Chinese chemical/batteries analyst, Jack Lu, China supplies 50% of global battery shipment, and 50-75% of global battery materials including the cathode, anode, separator, and electrolyte.

:pushpin: China imports mine Lithium and and does refining of Lithium to Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide.

To view the Chinese risks Jonas sees for $TSLA, I link you to this screenshot:…

p.s. I’ll run down that Bloomberg article Jonas mentions on $CATL next.

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Some more analysis from others:

CNBC $TSLA perma-bull, Gene Munster’s Twitter thread on yesterday’s call. Reading between the lines, Munster seems to be waking up to competition cutting into Tesla’s once world dominance of EVs:

Gene Munster
Elon says “this year, I swear” FSD will be solved. His laugh says it all. Slim to no change that happens.

My bet is 2025.
Gene Munster
This guy has a gift of making light of intense topics like Twitter and geopolitical risks.

Force majeure is one of his favorite phrases.
Gene Munster
Comment that they’ll build 10-12 gigafactories eventually is nothing new, but reinforces the company is in growth mode.

Speaking of competition, here’s the latest from Europe:



In July 2022, Tesla managed to sell a whopping 1,776 cars across 13 European nations with a combined population of 393m.

This represents an amazing 2.3% share of the European BEV market. Atrophy secured!

And today is the day of $TSLA 3 for 1 stock split. Here are the charts which are all showing bullish breakouts at this moment, and the daily & monthly charts show recent Bullish crossovers of their respective EMAs.

$TSLA daily chart

$TSLA weekly chart

$TSLA monthly chart

Lastly, certain $TSLA fanatics on METAR and Bershire boards are no longer worth my time reading. At last count, I’ve got five of them on Ignore after they cluttered both of those boards with cult-like nonsense and their inability to honestly assess demand and supply issues for not only Tesla, but competitors outselling Tesla all over Europe.

Let’s revisit the website to re-look at Q2 2022 EV registrations in the 13 countries the Twitter poster @EdwardSmallhouse looked at for just July 2022. (I count 14 countries, but he said 13.)

Tesla was second place overall in registrations for all its cars, and second place for one specific model in Q2 2022. These numbers have not changed in the last 3 weeks:

Questions: all these cars which Berlin gigafactory is pumping out, who is buying them? (Last we read on this board Berlin was pumping out 1,000 cars weekly.)….

That has certainly have had to gone up. But if you believe the photos cropping up on Twitter, there are fields of new Teslas in Europe covered in dust. Are they spoken for?

As @EdwardSmallhouse above points out above, July 2022 was very weak for Tesla in 13 European countries.

To see just how badly Tesla is lagging behind other auto badges this quarter, Q3 2022, in 14 European countries tap here:

At this moment, Tesla in 15th place with 2.3% market share. Caution: Tesla crams the inventory deliveries usually into the last month of every quarter. We’re only in the second months of this quarter.

That said, Tesla’s best selling model, Model Y, is in 18th place with only 1,447 of them registered from July 1, 2022 thru yesterday August 4, 2022.

What is going on in Europe with Tesla? Anyone here follow this company to know if it is regulators or just consumers switching to less expensive or better built brands?

$F Ford, which doesn’t have an EV factory in Europe, is outselling the Model Y from Tesla with their Mach E?


Anyway, let’s see how this 3 for 1 stock split goes today.

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