The evidence that Ukraine is winning this war is abundant, if one only looks closely at the available data. The absence of Russian progress on the front lines is just half the picture, obscured though it is by maps showing big red blobs, which reflect not what the Russians control but the areas through which they have driven. The failure of almost all of Russia’s airborne assaults, its inability to destroy the Ukrainian air force and air-defense system, and the weeks-long paralysis of the 40-mile supply column north of Kyiv are suggestive. Russian losses are staggering—between 7,000 and 14,000 soldiers dead, depending on your source, which implies (using a low-end rule of thumb about the ratios of such things) a minimum of nearly 30,000 taken off the battlefield by wounds, capture, or disappearance. Such a total would represent at least 15 percent of the entire invading force, enough to render most units combat ineffective. And there is no reason to think that the rate of loss is abating—in fact, Western intelligence agencies are briefing unsustainable Russian casualty rates of a thousand a day.
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saunafool: The evidence that Ukraine is winning this war is abundant, if one only looks closely at the available data. The absence of Russian progress on the front lines is just half the picture, obscured though it is by maps showing big red blobs, which reflect not what the Russians control but the areas through which they have driven. The failure of almost all of Russia’s airborne assaults, its inability to destroy the Ukrainian air force and air-defense system, and the weeks-long paralysis of the 40-mile supply column north of Kyiv… Russian losses are staggering—between 7,000 and 14,000 soldiers dead,
Failure everywhere with heavy casualties to barely trained 19 yo boys who don’t want to be there but spectacular failure in command and control, communications that don’t work as well as basic logistics such as providing fuel, food and shockingly reports of frostbite to troops who are neither equipped, dressed nor trained to care for themselves properly. Commanders wandering around (getting sniped) while trying to figure out what is happening.
Vlad P is clearly not a military leader … he is only able to order the end point with no idea how to get there … history is replete with stories of kings who lost there kingdom for such failures.
With all the distraction over the old MIGs many didn’t notice the toll the gifted missile systems were taking on Russian aircraft including combat helicopters. I suspect many of the companies producing these missiles as well as the Anti-armor ones that are working perfectly in the street fight environment are jumping with joy at being able to claim “tested in battle” for their products?
Now the problem is that Vlad doesn’t dare just retire to spend more time with family? I don’t think he has appointed a successor? A rational person won’t use nuclear … is Vlad rational?
Vlad has been running Russia for over 20 years, my banker daughter once told me that after 10 years most CEO’s spend more time protecting their empire rather than running it to benefit the shareholders.
It may be so that Ukraine is winning, but the Ukrainians are fighting not gloating.
The pain in Ukraine as the civilians face bombings and death is not a gloating moment.
If we must gloat let’s do this sheerly at Russia’s expense without a mention of Ukraine.
Let’s gloat over people in Russia seeing a major drop in their standard of living. These people are not innocent. Those Russians who object to this war need the support of the west kneecapping Russia outright. That is an in your face message we can all rally behind. If there is going to be pain it must be Russian pain.
I come from a medical family. The drug companies are saying they will stay in part in Russia because innocent people have cancer and heart problems etc…I say pull the plug.
Are there innocent Russians? Not really with anyone over age 16. I am not saying guilt by association. I am saying guilt because that is your country. Pull the plug.
Vlad P is clearly not a military leader … he is only able to order the end point with no idea how to get there … history is replete with stories of kings who lost there kingdom for such failures.
The USA was not supposed to be in Syria if we go by the old cold war recognized spheres of power. We were in there going after ISIS really because the Russian military is a piece of crap.
There were some interesting points, but from the article:
The West’s biggest obstacle to accepting success, though, is that we have become accustomed over the past 20 years to think of our side as being stymied, ineffective, or incompetent.
Which was a little hard to read with a straight face given the author’s background as a co-founder of Project for the New American Century (PNAC). PNAC was a think tank dedicated to the proposition that the War on Terror was an actual war and that meant invading countries and topping their governments. Iraq would be first of course, and then Iran and then on down the list. Cohen and his PNAC colleagues argued long and hard that the main obstacle regarding an US invasion of Iraq would be sweeping up all the flower petals the Iraqis would throw at us. This was pre-9/11 mind you.
A large of number of PNAC alumni went onto serve at high levels in high levels in the US government, including vice president of the United States and Sec of Defense, and Assistant Sec of Defense. So, not like they were back benchers. Cohen himself also later became a high ranking US official.
Well, we all know how Iraq turned out, and the Afghanistan war that they ran for eight years didn’t leave much to boast about either.
So if Cohen is wondering why the West seems stymied, ineffective, or incompetent, he needs to take a good long look in the mirror. He and his colleagues played no small role in all that.
With all the distraction over the old MIGs many didn’t notice the toll the gifted missile systems were taking on Russian aircraft including combat helicopters.
The BBC ran a piece last night about a small town, with an important bridge over a river, that the Russians attacked.
Townspeople with hunting rifles joined the Ukrainian troops in fighting off the Russians. They had some British made anti-tank rockets, and used them.
Ukraine: The small town which managed to block Russia’s big plans
It was one of the most decisive battles of the war so far - a ferocious two-day struggle for control of the farming town of Voznesensk and its strategically important bridge.
Ukrainian troops, supported by an eclectic army of local volunteers, delivered a crushing blow to Russian plans, first by blowing up the bridge and then by driving the invading army back, up to 100km, to the east.
As on so many frontlines in Ukraine, British-supplied anti-tank missiles proved crucial in turning the tide against Russian armour in Voznesensk, leaving the town littered with up to 30 tanks, armoured cars and even a helicopter.
“And there is no reason to think that the rate of loss is abating—in fact, Western intelligence agencies are briefing unsustainable Russian casualty rates of a thousand a day.”
Western intelligence is very accurate. It predicted every move that Putin was planning WRT Ukraine invasion.
Russian intelligence is the lousy one - look at the failure of predicting 1) Ukraine strength and resolve to defend Ukraine, 2) NATO resolve to supply Ukraine with superior weapons, 3) worldwide sanctions that have devastated Russia government and people, and 4) UN condemnation of Russian invasion and war crimes.
Russian intelligence is the lousy one - look at the failure of predicting
That is what happens when the leader makes it clear he only wants to hear what he wants to hear. Facts are tossed aside, in pursuit of retention of position, or advancement. I was schooled on that very early in my working life “only tell the honchos what they want to hear”.