AMZN Ad Rev Growth Slowing..TTD?

Have not looked at the numbers myself, but this article says the following:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/25/amazons-advertising-sales-gr…

“The growth of Amazon’s “Other” segment, which consists primarily of advertising sales, slowed dramatically to 36% in the first quarter from the previous year, at $2.72 billion. That’s a big slowdown from 97% year-over-year growth last quarter, and over 100% growth for three consecutive quarters before that.”

So it brings up a few possibilities:

  1. This doesn’t affect TTD at all and no one talks about it

  2. This is a good thing (or neutral) for TTD and analysts come up with a bunch of reasons it’s bad for TTD. TTD sells-off and gives us a wonderful buying opportunity (already my largest position so I won’t add)

  3. This is a bad thing for TTD and advertising in general.

I think it will probably be #2. What do you all think?

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that really surprises me. It may just speak to AMZN competing against their own clients too much…maybe there was a pullback in advertising spend from some big players that didn’t like amazon taking their money and competing against them.

Also, depending on how the ad situation works for a client and amazon, the client may be hesitant to share data with amzn…again due to feeding their competition.

All in all, it plays into the TTD narrative in a positive way:
TTD growing faster than AMZN (we hope).
TTD a neutral party, that can be trusted with data, and who wont compete against you.
TTD a trusted party compared to facebook with all their ills/issues, and doesn’t compete against you like amzn, and is focused more on ctv/mobile/audio whereas google was/is mainly legacy desktop/PC advertising (with exception of Youtube).

I would like to hear that TTD does something eventually with Disney. They are in works to buy out remaining Comcast share of Hulu and will own that outright, and they are coming out with Disney+. if you blink, you may wake up and realize that Disney is the streaming king one day soon.

Dreamer

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I’m not following Amazon that closely anymore, but they’ve changed a couple things lately to purge some sellers and potentially some ad revenue.

First, after the US announced withdrawl from the UPU in October the 40-70 percent subsidies on shipping direct from China to US households disappeared. That knocked out a bunch of Chinese suppliers of lightweight goods who would typically spend more on advertising (including fake reviews) than the value of the product in the first months/quarters after launch to earn ‘best seller’ status.

Also, Amazon has made a focused effort to push vendors from first-party to third-party. So a bunch of smaller companies (annual Amazon revenue < $10m) have been pushed into a different relationship where they may be focusing on other distribution channels.

I’m also with the ‘neutral’ or ‘no impact’ to TTD. I just keep buying that one (thanks Dreamer).

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It may just speak to AMZN competing against their own clients too much.

I would guess it competes against clients and is also a disservice to online shoppers. Further, I suspect it led to decreased sales of products. It did in my case.

Price, convenience, and quality are all factors in shopping on AMZN. But so is credibilty.

In seeking more ad income, one thing AMZN did was delete the “Customers who bought this item also bought” line and replace it with a second “Sponsored products related to this item” so that there were two such lines in many places, which, of course, brought in more ad money.

But it corrupted the online shopping experience.

First, I imagine most customers ignore the sponsored items lines. I know I did.

Second, using the “Customers who bought…” line effectively worked as a source of leads, if sometimes a tier or two down. In other words, it was the virtual equivalent of browsing in a focused section of a store. For starters, you know what others of like mind have been drawn too. And you go from there. But without that line, it is one less hook on which to hang a purchase decision (for some of us). And to suss out related items of interest.

Third, a second line of sponsored products (there’s been a line further on down the page for some time) flooded pages with ads of (often) far inferior products. For example, in the computer/electronics section there are often a lot of disguised Chinese imitations. (Experiences may vary. I use AMZN in the U.S. and Japan.)

Fourth, it decreased the overall credibility of the shopping experience. Anecdotally, it led to a 20 to 30% drop in the number of my purchases.

I see signs that AMZN might be retreating from this form of ad income, which would be welcome. It would makes sense to use more targeted, useful ad approach a la TTD, and more discreetly. AMZN is of course always testing extensively. With luck, they are in the process of figuring all of this out.

Fwiw,

Barry

Long TTD and AMZN

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