Apparantly, Sept. 15th is the date Raphael (Zen 4 DDR5) will be announced. Shipping dates are not confirmed, but they are expected to be by early October. Some Raptor Lake (Intel Gen 13 DDR5) SKUs will probably be announced in October, but the launch will be spread out into 2023.
If you think that sounds bad for Intel, it is probably the best product line Intel has going right now. Optane is gone, the ARC graphics chips may be on the chopping block, and Sapphire Rapids may be dragged out another six months. (Delay definite, six months–2Q2023–is an average of what I have heard.)
I expect the AMD N5 products to outperform Raptor lake, but it will be close enough. The schedules are also close enough. I do expect Intel to have substantially more Intel N7 capacity than AMD is able to get of TSMC N5.
Optane is gone Both Kioxia and Hynix are shipping NVM modules that connect to INTC servers via CXL, making optane redundant:-)
I am curious what happens as Sapphire Rapids compresses into the Emerald Rapids schedule. This was asked at the earnings CC without any real answer from Intel.
For now, it does appear meteor lake laptops on Intel 4 is the only bright spot… we will need to wait and see if that light goes out soon as well.
Alan
I expect the AMD N5 products to outperform Raptor lake, but it will be close enough. The schedules are also close enough. I do expect Intel to have substantially more Intel N7 capacity than AMD is able to get of TSMC N5.
TSMC and AMD are calling the process for Zen 4 CPU chiplets an optimized variant of TSMC’s N4 variant, which is an optimized variant of TSMC’s N5 process. What does all that mean? I expect it to mean a set of macros that are more space efficient than the parent process, just like the “N6” process being used for Zen 3 CPU chiplets. The net result for Zen 3 was significantly lower power requirements, but clock speeds were almost identical to Zen 2. For Zen 4, AMD seems to be focusing on using the freed-up headroom to push clock speeds this time.
I am curious what happens as Sapphire Rapids compresses into the Emerald Rapids schedule. This was asked at the earnings CC without any real answer from Intel.
For now, it does appear meteor lake laptops on Intel 4 is the only bright spot… we will need to wait and see if that light goes out soon as well.
And I am also interested in what happens as Raptor Lake pushes into Meteor Lake. For the high-end SKUs, I don’t see an issue. But if some of the low-end Raptor Lake SKUs end up in 2Q2023, what will happen to low-end Meteor Lake? Intel can, and I expect, will have some low-end and laptop Meteor Lake SKUs that do not contain the VPU. Yes, there are some high-end use cases for laptops where the VPU will be useful, but for many users, it seems to me that the VPU will be a heat source and nothing else. Intel can, and probably will provide a way to shut off the VPU clock. (Just the way my mind works, I’m already specifying a counting semaphore incremented by library units that use the VPU so it is up and running when needed. But I still see no use case for the VPU in thin and light laptops.
I am also interested in what happens as Raptor Lake pushes into Meteor Lake.
I see it unfolding like the comet lake (14nm) and Ice Lake (10nm) which were released at about the same time into the laptop market.
Meteor lake will have a much stronger Integrated GPU and most likely service the 5W to 25W thin and light market. OTOH, Raptor lake will have a weak GPU and service either the business laptop or the gaming laptop with an add in GPU in the 25W to 45W market. Pure speculation and hinges on Meteor Lake actually releasing in a reasonable time frame.
Alan
I expect the AMD N5 products to outperform Raptor lake, but it will be close enough. The schedules are also close enough. I do expect Intel to have substantially more Intel N7 capacity than AMD is able to get of TSMC N5.
I expect to see Zen 4 out performing 13th Gen Raptor Lake by enough of a margin to be favored on performance alone. Then add in the strong power efficiency advantage Zen4 will have over 13th Gen Raptor Lake and the rumors regarding Intel’s plans to lower CPU prices later this year start to become more believable.
The real question in my mind is, will Intel stop at just a price war or will Intel Osborne Raptor Lake with leaks and hype in an attempt to get consumers to wait for Meteor Lake? Will consumers even believe it if Intel tries?
If you look at what best buy has on the floor in laptops to buy today I see (based on the web site inventory for my local store):
Intel 14nm (old celeron) 13 different systems
Icelake: 6 different systems
Tiger Lake: 53 different systems
Alder Lake: 54 different systems
→ Intel is in the middle of the transition from tiger lake to alder lake
For AMD:
3xxx series: 1 system
5xxx series: 24 different systems (Cezanne N7)
6xxx series: 5 different systems (Rembrandt N6)
→ AMD is still mostly on the Cezanne generation laptops
FYI,
Alan
I should have been more clear about “different systems”…
I don’t know how much inventory of any given system they have, but this is the list of choices in systems you have. For instance, there is sometimes one model, but it may come in different colors, different memory sizes, etc… Each combination of color, memory, HDD, screen size, … count as a “different system”.
Alan
and the rumors regarding Intel’s plans to lower CPU prices later this year start to become more believable.
Not the rumors I heard… What I heard confirmed was that they planned to RAISE laptop/desktop CPU prices this year, the interpretation I’ve seen being that by announcing a future price increase they might pull forward some sales into this or next quarter. I can’t find that interpretation right now but it made sense. Here’s a story on the increase.
I find this to be an interesting announcement by Intel. Indeed they have said they are going to raise prices.
It makes sense given the inflation rate
It doesn’t make sense given their inventory build up
Perhaps they are hoping for a bump in purchasing due to this announcement, but I doubt that many people have heard it or believed it if they heard it…
I do think most of Intel’s output is under contract pricing so raising the list prices doesn’t really change much of their volume.
Alan
I hadn’t heard the price increase point. I was still thinking with the leak data I had heard from a few sources stating there were rumors that Intel prices were going to be cut to move stock.
If Intel is planning on raising prices and is still predicting an 11% decrease in annual revenue Intel must be expecting their sales volume to really drop. Margins dipped this last quarter and maybe they are trying to protect at least one of two metrics.
As I said, interesting times.
I still think it is laughable that AMD will own it for the next two to three years (foreseeable future) and the stock is sitting at $103. Even crazier is Nvidia is down 36% YTD while Intel is only down 33% YTD.
How are you doing these searches at bestbuy.com? When I drill down to All Categories => All Laptops, and just select “AMD” as the processor filter, I only get 5 machines, none of which seems to be a 6000 series CPU.
It was for my local store here in CA. I think when you are on the page and select available today you have to pick a store. I was not looking at available to order online, but rather pick up in store.
Alan
Ok, I found a lot more AMD laptops by starting at Computers & Tablets => PC Gaming. Why they don’t show up under All Categories => All Laptops I have no idea. Why do all the search capabilities at computer makers seem to suck?
When I drill down to All Categories => All Laptops, and just select “AMD” as the processor filter, I only get 5 machines, none of which seems to be a 6000 series CPU.
Most likely, Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD) is selling all of their production capacity at full price and not resorting to sales through “big box” discounters.
Most likely, Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD) is selling all of their production capacity at full price and not resorting to sales through “big box” discounters.
You are partially correct. Plus, I apparently just wasn’t searching “correctly”. Though I blame the Best Buy website for lack of clarity. I just now noticed that I was looking under the “deals” section for AMD laptops, of which there were only 5. I suppose that’s a good thing for AMD’s bottom line!
As for a particular laptop I was considering, this one looked tempting:
It’s got: a 16.1 inch 144 MHz 1920 x 1080 display, AMD Ryzen 7 6800H, AMD Radeon RX 6650M, 1 TB SSD, and 16 gigabytes of DDR5-4800 RAM.
One review said it ran hot and was also heavy (5.3 lbs). The hotness is somewhat surprising to me, but the weight doesn’t bother me since it will be mostly parked at home. But the same reviewer also said this laptop was no good for VR because the “the RX6 series [graphics card] does not have a video encoder and therefore can not push video out to VR devices.” Is that right? The AMD specs for the RX 6650M would seem to say otherwise - from https://www.amd.com/en/products/graphics/amd-radeon-rx-6650m…
One review said it ran hot and was also heavy (5.3 lbs). The hotness is somewhat surprising to me,
Beware of the reviewer’s (lack of) understanding of cooling solutions here. Some reviewers just look at sensor readings and are afraid of high readings, even though the reading is well within specifications and actually perfectly fine.
The thing is that any cooling solution is performing optimally when the CPU is allowed to reach near its temperature limits, due to the simple fact that higher temperatures cause a higher temperature gradient between ambient surroundings and the heat source, thus more effective cooling. Which means fans can run slower. Any cooling solution that wants to push CPU temperatures lower will have to spin fans faster, thereby increasing noise.
The ideal cooling solution for a performance/gaming notebook allows the CPU (and GPU) to run at top-speed at top temperature, with as little fan speed and noise as possible, while keeping the skin temperature of the notebook cool to the touch.
So, regarding heat, look for ergonomic issues instead, such a noise (indicating a sub-par cooling solution that struggles to keep the chips below temperature limits) and skin temperature; in particular, for a gaming notebook: Do the WASD keys become uncomfortably hot during gaming? By the way, I think these issues are part of the AMD’s “AMD Advantage” certification program.
the RX6 series [graphics card] does not have a video encoder
This particular reviewer obviously does not have a good grasp of facts, as you yourself found out by looking up the actual product specifications.
HardwareUnboxed on YouTube does good notebook reviews, as far as I know. They also publish their reviews as articles at TechSpot.
Most likely, Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD) is selling all of their production capacity at full price and not resorting to sales through “big box” discounters.
I took a look at Dell to see what they have and how that might compare to Best Buy.
Dell has three lines, inspiron for the entry level, xps in the middle, and Alienware as premium.
AMD has about as many systems using 5xxx in inspiron as they have systems using 6xxx in premium. Intel has all the middle XPS sockets.
In total we see:
Intel 11th generation: 17 systems
Intel 12th generation: 58 systems
AMD 5xxx: 6 systems
AMD 6xxx: 7 systems
It is clear Dell is further along in the transition to the newest generation than retail, but there is still a significant amount of the older generation being sold.
FYI,
Alan
