Disclaimers: #1, I’m a hobbyist trader, not someone trying to make a living. #2, I give a lot of weight to ‘fundamentals’, not just ‘technicals’ alone. #3, I do a lot of ‘bottom-fishing’. This means I’m often early on a trade and then out of it before the talking heads have begun to tout it, and I miss out on the really big moves. #4, I grab windfall profits as fast as they happen rather than hanging aroung hoping for a few more pennies. #5, I agree with them who say we’re in a recesssion and headed for a depression greater than that of the 1930’s. DO YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE.
Other stock possibilies in the under $20 range might be: AEY, STKS, ONB, TALO, PKE, GNA, SATS, FCCO, CRK, DNOW, plus nearly any of the regional banks, most of which jumped on the Fed’s bailout and the Plunge Protection Team’s buying on Friday, provided their fundamentals are solid.
Good call on NMRK. I had mentioned the stock, because its chart looked promising. But when I dicovered it was a real estate stock, I backed away.
In fact, I backed away from every stock I mentioned once I pulled their fundamentals. OTOH, I made money --again-- on BITO and got out just now at 15.83, for a 3.5% gain, which is a 2-day trade I should write up, because it was done from a guess more than from just a chart.
Arindam,
There is a free livestream this Weds with Rickards and Booth that you can sign up for through Paradigm. I know you have mentioned both of them in the past. Thought you might be interested.
Both of them are insightful analysts. Even more interesting is that they don’t agree on some major things. (Rickards thinks Powell is clueless. Booth argues he’s following a sound game plan.)
AUPH has a lupus nephritis drug approved in Europe and SWSt had a positive report on the value in the company. The technicals looked right. I sold for less than ten cents loss because I didn’t want to hold over the weekend and it bounced back up over my buy point today of course. I’ll watch it for a while.
The Buy/Sell arrows are placed on the chart the day after the StochRSI crossovers by the backtesting program, not after-the-fact, by hand, as Quill does to make his systems seem as if they produce no losses. Here are the theoretical orders.
If a longer test-period had been chosen, the trades would have resulted in a net loss, underscoring --once again-- that timing matters, as does security selection, as does trading system selection, as does one’s stop-loss and drawdowns policies.
The program is StockAnalyze, which doesn’t have quite the capacity of MetaStock, but is a whole lot cheaper. The huge value of running one’s trading ideas through a backtester is that the program will only do what you tell it to do. Hence, it enforces honesty and realism with regard to hoped for results.
I bought that last green arrow in the $10.90 area and sold in the $10.80 area for a small loss. So happy to not ride it down to 10.20 range. I watch the stock price closely the first few days in case there is a reversal like what happened with AUPH. I think I started tracking AUPH because it showed up on the Barchart 100 and also on my screener…doc
I’m not trying to be a teacher/adviser. I’m here to learn as much as I can. When someone puts on a trade that works, or doesn’t work, I want to know why, so I can benefit from their shrewdness or their mistake.
My thought on your trade on AUPH is that you were late to the trade. BarChart is a superb place to do one’s own analysis: technical, fundamental, or otherwise. But their signals --the website’s signals, not one’s own chart-generated ones-- are all but useless, and anything they tout has nearly always already made its move. (But what they pan is often what you want to be buying.)
Also, although you interpreted SWS as giving a nod of approval to AUPH, I took warnings from their checklists and would not have attempted to trade it. But doing that write-up would mean more work than I’m willing to do.
Kudos for attempting to trade AUPH, and double kudos for backing away when you saw the trade wasn’t working. In fact, both Weinstein and Mamis suggests this.
“If the market doesn’t immediately confirm that your entry was correct, it probably wasn’t.”
