Your entry was back in early April, right? when ENPH was trading above $200 and before it reported earnings.
Predictably, using no more than a basic price chart, the position should have been exited no later than April 21, because traders knew the report was going to be bad, and they were pricing the stock accordingly. Now, four weeks later, the stock still hasn’t recovered, and it is still very much over-valued as can be seen by running a DCF model. (Look it up if you don’t know to run one.)
Spoiler Alert: Fair value for ENPH is $130, compared to its present price of $162, making puchase of the stock a speculative bet at best. But now you’re calliing your purchase of ENPH an "investment? Ben Graham would laugh you out of the room and say, “You’re sufffering the loss you deserve for ignoring fundamentals”.
From a technical standpoint, had you done even the tiniest bit of due diligence before following the crowd into ENPH, you would have seen that ENPH tracks the ETF that tracks the solar industry nearly exactly, making an individual bet on ENPH unnecessary. When TAN perks up --if ever-- then would be the time to think about buying ENPH, FSLR, etc., not before.
Sorry Arindam you are like a child. I have to constantly remind you that this is an investment not a trade. I am not now calling this purchase an investment, if you go back to when I first made the purchase you would see that I have always called it an investment. It is not helpful if you are going to make up stories. I disagree with you on the fundamentals because you really are to short term a thinker and really do not understand the fundamentals. I would be very happy if Enphase dropped to $130 dollars, because then it would be dirt cheap and I could buy more. Any company growing Revenue at 40 percent with a P/S of 7 would be very good but it is at 9 right now and that is cheap also. Enphase also has as much cash as debt on it’s balance sheet, has a FCF margin of 30 percent, not many companies can do that, and is profitable. You claim that Ben Graham would laugh me out of the room? I really could care less about Ben Graham because in these days he is irrelevant. Nobody can get the deals Ben Graham was getting when he was investing, Even Warren Buffet does not invest like Ben Graham anymore.
You are ridiculous. I didn’t follow any crowd into Enph. I bought it because of it’s growth and FCF margin. I make my own decisions and was into before most people on these boards were even talking about it. Oh, and Arindam, I did trade FSLR and bought in at $178.78 and sold at $224.49 for a nice 26 percent return.
Arindam, you can not get me to change my mind on this investment and you can try to beat me up on it all you want but this is not going to go well for you. Because in a years time it is going to hang from your neck like an albatross when I tell you how much money I made on it just like Quill told you how much money he made on CELH and you became so angry about it. But that is the kind of company Enphase is also.
Much thanks for your spirited response. It’s always fun to read a defense of the indefensible, namely, your ill-conceived, poorly-executed trade on ENPH that is now losing money.
If you want to self-excuse that obvious mistake by calling it “an investment”, you don’t need anyone’s permission to tell yourself that lie. But no one should believe it. You failed to do even the most basic of due diligence, and you’re failing now to properly manage that “investment” as its price continues to fall from your entry point.
What will ENPH’s price be in a year’s time? That is easy to predict. It will be trading lower than its current range as support for the "green energy " scam collapses due to global macro-economic factors, not the least of which is the US losing its war with Russia and the ongoing displacement of the $US as a payment currency by a majority of the world’s economies. The latter will negatively impact the US economy beyond the ability of the Treasury’s Plunge Protection Team to prop up stock prices. In a year’s time, the US will be in the middle of a '30’s-style depression.
Can’t happen? Won’t happen? Are you really willing to make that bet?
Right because you really have no understanding of an investment or what that even means. Now let’s get this straight since you are slippery as a watermelon seed. I did tell you at the very first, that Enphase was an investment. Yet you still haven’t apologized for lying about saying I never said that. Don’t worry I never thought you would but it is comforting that I read you correctly.
You are the same person that ran around here telling everyone that it is Chef’s choice. You also told me that some people hold for long periods of time and it works out well for them. Now you are trying to berate a person who is holding a investment, just like Warren Buffett would. Do not worry Arindam, I understand you just give lip service to Graham and Buffett but really have no clue about investing .
LOL you really are a conspiracy. The U.S will be much higher in a years time, we will go into a recession but anyone calling for a 30’s style depression really hasn’t any understanding of this economy.
Yes I will make that bet. I do not have any use for fear mongering or running down the United States.