Also predictions on the type of drop. A sudden 1987 22 plus % one day drop? Or a long term bleeding decline?
Are you prepared for a 50% multi year decline similar to the 2000-02 decline?
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All I am saying, it won’t be a plain vanilla correction.
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My Opinion: This will be a cascading earnings miss stairway down. I think it will hit like the 2007-2009 period with many ups and downs.
NVDA is one canary. There could be others, but this one is the one I’m watching.
E.G.: NVIDIA might report QXX202X earnings with the following disappointing results:
Revenue Miss: $32B actual vs $37B expected (14% shortfall)
Data center orders down 25% from previous quarter
Gross margins compress: 72% down to 65% due to pricing pressure
Forward guidance reduced: Next quarter revenue projected at $28B vs consensus $38B
Management commentary: “Seeing elongated sales cycles and customer budget scrutiny as AI infrastructure spending normalizes”*
Full Year Guidance Pulled: Jensen talks about adoption rates which are qualitative and not quantitative. All Positive commentary is broadly generalized as a hiccup with a hopeful outlook, but not timelines, numeric details or concrete statement. Reemphasize Positive earnings
Immediate Market Reaction: NVDA shares gap down 18% at open, losing $450B in market capitalization within hours. This would be a dramatic start which sees the company shares repriced down to 18-22 P/E.
The other Mag 7 company reports will have successive indicators which will compound the issue.
Stocks rerated down (cut share prices by 50%)
Orders and CAPEX delayed ( projects pushed years - ultimately cancelled)
AI eco system worker wage suppression (right sizing) - Thousands out of work, many journeyman workers placed in adjacent spaces for 30% or less of their peak earnings rates.
Nasdaq -55%
S&P - 50%
Gold falls
Real Estate values plummet
Illiquid investments like art, classic autos, fall in sympathy - and liquidity losses resulting from shrinking free discretionary spending.
intercst finds another 7 day cruise for $400 to the western Caribbean. He doesn’t pull the trigger for fear that the liner will go bankrupt prior to his voyage date.
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LOL I like the above commentary.
I’m prepared for a 50% drop whether it a one year or multi year bleeding drop.
My income stream meets my needs. Eating out and vacations are luxury items IMO. Though I enjoy them when I feel flush.
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I think we will have many steps down as various companies start to get negative about AI. However, if Nvidia were to report something troubling about AI, the entire card deck falls to the table.
AI is real. It will be helpful. We will be glad we have it. Just like the Internet. But the AI is also going to have their sock puppets moment. We are going to have dark data centers, just like dark fiber. This time is never different.
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No way Jose. There’s too much underlying economy and too much wealth, albeit unevenly distributed for that kind of collapse. That has happened only twice in the past 100 years, and both were crazy visible if you just looked.
This is not that. This is a misallocation period, not unlike the dot-com bubble or the Nifty Fifty period of the 70’s. Absent some kind of existential shock (OPEC oil embargo, Pearl Harbor, etc) it will be a step down recession - and Trump and Republicans will suddenly find virtue in dumping scads of dollars everywhere, including to the little people who populate Dollar General.
That will give some temporary boost (as the rainfall checks did during that pandemic) and will ameliorate the worst effects, but the economy will go down (not precipitously). I expect about 20-30% fall in stocks, and a single digit pullback in the economy, hopefully lasting just long enough to sweep the incumbent party from power, totally and completely. Preferably for years, but even just one or two cycles would be OK. 
Taiwan invasion or other external shocks, all bets are off.
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Actually it was a 7-day cruise of the Adriatic Sea with 2 nights docked in Venice, Italy.
I don’t think you could find a hotel room in Venice with the amenities of a modern cruise ship cabin for $400/night, much less 2 nights.
intercst
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There’s a movie coming out tomorrow “A House of Dynamite” on the subject. Good News is that few people will be left to witness the drop in the stock market.
intercst
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Goofy
You are negotiating
Things are going to be horrible
The wealthy half will lose rhe wealth effect, and this time their government paper
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Goofy You are negotiating Things are going to be horrible The wealthy half will lose rhe wealth effect, and this time their government paper
You remind me of the guy on the street corner holding a sign saying “The End Is Near” and howling at the moon.
It’s never as bad as that, or at least hasn’t been in all of human history.
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A more important question to answer is When?
DB2
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I predict the drop will occur in the future.
And I’ve never been wrong. 
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Goof, again…
I am playing the recovery.
You have zero timing. Sarcasm is a weak skillset.
Hold until relieved?
The trade war with China is fully ablaze. The blaze won’t be put out for six months. Minimally.
Yesterday was the calm before the storm.
Long live the fools.