Yesterday? Pure POMO.
Today? Fake FOMO, imo.
I call BS on today’s rally. This BMR will hopefully die soon.
My eyes can’t roll hard enough for the market/news cycles telling me it is the end of the world one day and then MSFT and GOOGL both miss top and bottom, and then market rallies and we are told everything gonna be just fine.
Yes, cloud will grow.
No one is disputing that.
Yes, DDOG deserves a higher multiple than majority of stocks.
I am certainly not disputing that.
But if most “growth” stocks decompress down to multiples in the 5-15 P/S range, does DDOG need to be at 25, or is something like 17-18 more realistic. Still a premium.
So that is the “sign” I think I am waiting for. We have seen a lot of stocks hit a 52 wk low in past couple of months. TWLO was at Aug 2018 levels, for crying out loud. All the former greats coming back down to Earth, and I think it is only a matter of time for the more current darlings to follow suit. Basically, I am looking for everything to be re-rated. Not all equally valued. That would not make sense. Rather, I want to see them all with the air let out of the balloons.
Then, the greedy side of me says “it always goes farther than you think” and that was (is?) true with everything from GLBE to PTLO to UPST. It is also true on both the downside and the upside.
So I expect we hit a “fair value” valuation level for growth and hyper-growth, and then perhaps it even goes a bit lower. I would want to start buying at fair value (think: Target prices I have in mind) and if it goes lower, then just add more as appropriate.
Only UPST at the moment is below my recent targets.
DDOG and others were making progress again yesterday, which was washed away so far today.
The day is early though.
I think August might be a helluva month.