Not only is it difficult to invest (and trade, nod to @Citibeach44 ) this market, even if I HAD THE NUMBERS I wouldn’t have known what to do. $AVGO looks like they smashed earnings. Market dumps. $MDB looks like they crushed it. Market yawns and drops. $IOT has an ok beat and guides lower… rockets up 15%. $MRVL in-line and announced a $3B stock buy back… Crushed.
It’s a crazy algo world, and we’re just livin’ in it.
I’m following MDB and IOT. I agree with you. All of my buys and sells look terrible for this first 65ish days of the year with only one exception: SMCI.
Don’t own SMCI anymore, so, there’s still time for it to run up more and make me feel dumb, however.
Here is what you’re missing.
MDB crushed their numbers and gave horrible guidance.
COST I believe numbers were ok, but again, I need to look again, gave soft guidance.
IOT I own and was nervous about. Muji today warned that people might not understand that they will give slowing guidance because the way they do their numbers, they had one extra week in this 4th quarter over last 4th quarter and the coming 4th quarter. In other words their guidance would be off because of a lost week next year. So the softer guidance reflects that loss of time in their guidance. I guess the bigger players are knowledgeable and accounting for that.
MDB was crushed before they uttered a single word of guidance.
I don’t follow $COST. Muji’s warning on Saul’s wasn’t really news (though it was helpful) as it was written about elsewhere.
Is being down 9 percent crushed? That seems like a minor blip to me but you had me excited for a second.
Andy
No position in MDB
Closed at $412.01, algos dropped it to $344 on the release. It recovered to $375 though.
I agree with Citi, it was MDB’s guidance that caused the poor market reaction. And they didn’t have to actually utter a word of guidance, when the earnings are released at about 1:05 for most companies, that written release includes the forward guidance, so the market knows what that is immediately, and can react to it, it doesn’t have to wait for the conference call.
That said, I’ve noticed a trend with a lot of the high growth stocks. I think in an attempt to keep expectations in check, companies are being extra conservative with their forward guidance (since 2022). This seems to cause the initial reaction after earnings to be negative. Sometimes it stays that way till the next release, other times it recovers the initial loss quite quickly. But when the next quarter comes along, the company again beats on all counts on the current quarter, but then issues more conservative guidance, again tempering what could have been a good market reaction.
I’m not sure how to get out of that rut. I think just multiple quarters of this and Wall St should start to get that the guidance is a low bar to be able to clear easily so don’t put too much weight on it.
MDB was just a routine “priced to perfection” story with a buy the rumor, sell the news subplot, amplified by the algo’s.
Latest darling is ONON, reports today or tomorrow. Futures point to 10% price movement. 180+ p/e. Retail brand of athletic clothing. As Dreamer would say, price matters.
KC
Mostly Shoes, I don’t think that valuing this on a P/E level is the best way to value it. On a P/S I have 4.95 but Google has 10.78. I would like to know how they calculated their P/S but it is in Swiss Francs so? But the forward P/E according to google is 36.50 so growing very fast.
Andy