Important context for my portfolio reviews: I run a concentrated portfolio and WARNING the swings can be huge. From the 2021 high to the 2022 low, my portfolio fell more than 60%. For every $100 I had at the top I had just $40 left! Staggering. So, before trying this style, even with a small portion of your total net worth, please understand the downside – it’s much steeper than if you own an index, or a bunch of megacaps. Also, don’t follow or copy me, Saul, or anyone. We may sell a position or buy a new one at any time, so it’s impossible to follow anyway. Also, to succeed with a concentrated portfolio, you must rely on your own decisions.
April was a bad month for the market with the S&P falling 4% or so. I had ELF down 17%, ZS down 10%, MNDY down 16%, and Samsara which at one point was down almost 20% (but ended up down less than 8%). I added to all of these quite a bit, but trimmed Samsara as they went back up. Cash fell to less than 20%, so I sold some of my VTI etf to bring it back up. Not expecting anything in particular, but especially as earnings are upon us, opportunities usually arise.
I didn’t sell out of anything this month (although my t bills did mature so they’re gone), but I did add MercadoLibre and Nu Holdings (more on those below), so I’m up to 9 stocks and 2 ETFs.
The companies I’m invested in
Axon They will report next week, on Monday May 6. I expect business as usual, and this one doesn’t fluctuate as much as others, so I’ve mostly held steady. I did add just a bit back this month when it dipped under $300.
ELF This one, on the other hand, fluctuates wildly. It was down nearly 20% at times in April, and I got to greatly increase my position again. Glad I trimmed so much when it was over $200! Again, opportunities often arise.
Zscaler ZS has been incredibly weak since they reported in February and has gone from being up ~10% on the year to now being down 22%. Just silly in my opinion, and it kind of seems like a no brainer at these prices, which I wrote about here: Zscaler looking no-brainer-ish
Monday I didn’t write about Monday being a no brainer, but I could have. They fell 16% in April and are now basically flat for the year. This is not a world beater company in my book, but it’s still better than its competitors and I think they’re becoming a pretty strong cash flow generator. As I’m looking for investments to say yes to, this was an easy yes for me at the discount. I more than doubled it back up to 7%.
Transmedics I trimmed as it was up more than 25% this month! But it might be up even more tomorrow: they reported today and it was a very good quarter. I especially liked the FY guide raise from 370m to 400m and the 13% profit margin in Q1! TMDX Q1 Earnings
Samsara I call this one my money machine because I add shares when it falls to the low 30’s and as it comes back up to the mid- or even high-30’s I trim and take profits. Rinse, repeat. But seriously, I like the company…the stock is just too expensive. Not as crazy as CRWD, but I just don’t see much upside at $35.
MercadoLibre As I have looked for companies to say yes to, I found a quality name in a difficult geo. I’m not sure I’ll ever be as comfortable with it as I am with Axon or Zscaler, but I talked about how MercadoLibre won me over here: Why I bought MELI
Remitly Companies are valuable because of the present and future cash flows they can generate. The market doesn’t see Remitly as very valuable. In other words, the market is doubting their ability to generate meaningful cash flows. If I were confident the market is wrong, I’d make this a much larger position. But I’m not.
Nu Holdings Fascinating company that I picked up in the last few days, which I wrote about here: New NU thread -- help me understand - #17 by PaulWBryant
Wrapping up:
I used to end every month by reminding us to seek out the best companies. However, I know Crowdstrike is one of the best companies. But is it worth $75b? I don’t know. Will it be someday? Probably. But I don’t want my money to go sideways for 2 years or 3…a phenomenon Snowflake investors know all too well. Whether or not you obsess about this fact like I do, we’re all trying to allocate reasonably to companies we think will become more valuable. That’s what makes a market I guess – we all have different ways of deciding which companies those are, and how to allocate. And that’s what we’re on this board to discuss.
Happy May!
Bear
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn’t … pays it.” - Attributed to Albert Einstein
Previous Month Summaries
Dec 2016 (contains links to all 2016 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio at the end of 2016 - Saul’s Investing Discussions - Motley Fool Community
Dec 2017 (contains links to all 2017 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio through Dec 2017 - Saul’s Investing Discussions - Motley Fool Community
Dec 2018 (contains links to all 2018 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio through Dec 2018 - Saul’s Investing Discussions - Motley Fool Community
Dec 2019 (contains links to all 2019 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio through Dec 2019 - Saul’s Investing Discussions - Motley Fool Community
Dec 2020 (contains links to all 2020 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio through Dec 2020 - Saul’s Investing Discussions - Motley Fool Community
Dec 2021 (contains links to all 2021 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio through 12/2021 - Saul’s Investing Discussions - Motley Fool Community
Dec 2022 (contains links to all 2022 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio through 12/2022
Dec 2023 (contains links to all 2023 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio through 12/2023
Jan 2024: Bear's Portfolio through 01/2024
Feb 2024: Bear's Portfolio through 02/2024
Mar 2024: Bear's Portfolio through 03/2024