Bear's Portfolio through 04/2024

Important context for my portfolio reviews: I run a concentrated portfolio and WARNING the swings can be huge. From the 2021 high to the 2022 low, my portfolio fell more than 60%. For every $100 I had at the top I had just $40 left! Staggering. So, before trying this style, even with a small portion of your total net worth, please understand the downside – it’s much steeper than if you own an index, or a bunch of megacaps. Also, don’t follow or copy me, Saul, or anyone. We may sell a position or buy a new one at any time, so it’s impossible to follow anyway. Also, to succeed with a concentrated portfolio, you must rely on your own decisions.

April was a bad month for the market with the S&P falling 4% or so. I had ELF down 17%, ZS down 10%, MNDY down 16%, and Samsara which at one point was down almost 20% (but ended up down less than 8%). I added to all of these quite a bit, but trimmed Samsara as they went back up. Cash fell to less than 20%, so I sold some of my VTI etf to bring it back up. Not expecting anything in particular, but especially as earnings are upon us, opportunities usually arise.

I didn’t sell out of anything this month (although my t bills did mature so they’re gone), but I did add MercadoLibre and Nu Holdings (more on those below), so I’m up to 9 stocks and 2 ETFs.

The companies I’m invested in

Axon They will report next week, on Monday May 6. I expect business as usual, and this one doesn’t fluctuate as much as others, so I’ve mostly held steady. I did add just a bit back this month when it dipped under $300.

ELF This one, on the other hand, fluctuates wildly. It was down nearly 20% at times in April, and I got to greatly increase my position again. Glad I trimmed so much when it was over $200! Again, opportunities often arise.

Zscaler ZS has been incredibly weak since they reported in February and has gone from being up ~10% on the year to now being down 22%. Just silly in my opinion, and it kind of seems like a no brainer at these prices, which I wrote about here: Zscaler looking no-brainer-ish

Monday I didn’t write about Monday being a no brainer, but I could have. They fell 16% in April and are now basically flat for the year. This is not a world beater company in my book, but it’s still better than its competitors and I think they’re becoming a pretty strong cash flow generator. As I’m looking for investments to say yes to, this was an easy yes for me at the discount. I more than doubled it back up to 7%.

Transmedics I trimmed as it was up more than 25% this month! But it might be up even more tomorrow: they reported today and it was a very good quarter. I especially liked the FY guide raise from 370m to 400m and the 13% profit margin in Q1! TMDX Q1 Earnings

Samsara I call this one my money machine because I add shares when it falls to the low 30’s and as it comes back up to the mid- or even high-30’s I trim and take profits. Rinse, repeat. But seriously, I like the company…the stock is just too expensive. Not as crazy as CRWD, but I just don’t see much upside at $35.

MercadoLibre As I have looked for companies to say yes to, I found a quality name in a difficult geo. I’m not sure I’ll ever be as comfortable with it as I am with Axon or Zscaler, but I talked about how MercadoLibre won me over here: Why I bought MELI

Remitly Companies are valuable because of the present and future cash flows they can generate. The market doesn’t see Remitly as very valuable. In other words, the market is doubting their ability to generate meaningful cash flows. If I were confident the market is wrong, I’d make this a much larger position. But I’m not.

Nu Holdings Fascinating company that I picked up in the last few days, which I wrote about here: New NU thread -- help me understand - #17 by PaulWBryant

Wrapping up:

I used to end every month by reminding us to seek out the best companies. However, I know Crowdstrike is one of the best companies. But is it worth $75b? I don’t know. Will it be someday? Probably. But I don’t want my money to go sideways for 2 years or 3…a phenomenon Snowflake investors know all too well. Whether or not you obsess about this fact like I do, we’re all trying to allocate reasonably to companies we think will become more valuable. That’s what makes a market I guess – we all have different ways of deciding which companies those are, and how to allocate. And that’s what we’re on this board to discuss.

Happy May!


“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn’t … pays it.” - Attributed to Albert Einstein

Previous Month Summaries

Dec 2016 (contains links to all 2016 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio at the end of 2016 - Saul’s Investing Discussions - Motley Fool Community

Dec 2017 (contains links to all 2017 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio through Dec 2017 - Saul’s Investing Discussions - Motley Fool Community

Dec 2018 (contains links to all 2018 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio through Dec 2018 - Saul’s Investing Discussions - Motley Fool Community

Dec 2019 (contains links to all 2019 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio through Dec 2019 - Saul’s Investing Discussions - Motley Fool Community

Dec 2020 (contains links to all 2020 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio through Dec 2020 - Saul’s Investing Discussions - Motley Fool Community

Dec 2021 (contains links to all 2021 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio through 12/2021 - Saul’s Investing Discussions - Motley Fool Community

Dec 2022 (contains links to all 2022 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio through 12/2022

Dec 2023 (contains links to all 2023 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio through 12/2023

Jan 2024: Bear's Portfolio through 01/2024

Feb 2024: Bear's Portfolio through 02/2024

Mar 2024: Bear's Portfolio through 03/2024


I can tell you that the pace of progress is staggering in the competing technologies for transferring value. I follow that space with as much time as a layman can devote, and it’s impossible to keep up with what is being funded, developed, and deployed. It may not supplant firms like RELY this year, but its coming and the investing world knows it. It’s already possible to send value anywhere in the world to any person for pennies - it’s just that its not yet widely known and used. That will change in the next few years.

I know this is not a popular topic here, but I will also point out that the CEO started selling shares last Nov. after never selling any previously.


Nice writeup!

Was curious your take on TransMedics’ valuation now that they have reported earnings?

I’m guessing you probably trimmed in the 90s because of the run-up it had prior to earnings. Do you think it’s a good buy at $127 now?


Hi Bear,
To start I just wanted to say that I always like reading your monthly report outs and even if I don’t always agree I respect both the work you put into them and your willingness to share.

A couple of thoughts and I apologize in advance if they are considered portfolio management. I know it’s not an accepted topic but I don’t think that is what they are. I would say they are where to invest, but anyway, here goes.

One, you say you run an extremely concentrated portfolio, and I would agree you used to but over time you have begun investing a portion in broad ETF’s and cash.
35% ETFs and 25% cash this month means you have 40% of your portfolio in 7 stocks. Actually, I think that is pretty reasonable, you still participate strongly if your companies do well but aren’t as likely to get killed if they don’t. I don’t have much in the way of broad ETFs but have many more stocks than you so probably similar type results.

Two, and this is just a thought. If you want broad exposure you might consider RSP, the equal weighted SP500 etf. I say that because the regular SP500 is so tied to the mag 7 which I don’t think is what you want heavy exposure to.

Anyway. Thanks for the updates. They are always interesting!



I trimmed some in the 90’s, some in the 100’s after hours, some in the 110’s, and some in the 120’s. I don’t have much left but at $130+ I don’t know if I can hold on. This is a $4.6B company now. I think it will be worth more at some point in the next several years, but not 3x that much and I have a hard time even seeing a double from here any time in the next 3 or 4 years. I mean, there are only so many organs needed each year.



So many organs are available and needed but go unused do to logistical problems. Bear, you may be correct in the long run, but the short term expansion will not be constrained by lack of demand.



The limiting factor for future growth in total number of transplants may be hospitals/doctors/staff. I’m sure there is room to increase, but there is going to be a limit on how many surgeries a given transplant center can do in a year. I have no idea how far we are from that limit, but I think that is the one thing that is not within Transmedic’s ability to control.


In related news, the first person to receive a pig kidney transplant has died. There is not much detail in the news report, but it did say that there was no evidence that his cause of death was related to the transplanted kidney.