Bear's Portfolio through 06/2021


**Port Return**
Jan +7.3% YTD
Feb +6.7% YTD
Mar +2.0% YTD
Apr +9.8% YTD
May +12.4% YTD
Jun +29.2% YTD

**Port Changes**
Ticker	Jun	May	Apr	Mar	Feb	Jan
DOCU	16.1%	9.9%	10.8%	10.5%	11.1%	11.3%
DDOG	15.0%	17.7%	14.7%	12.9%	8.6%	0.0%
CRWD	12.9%	18.7%	14.6%	15.8%	12.9%	14.5%
UPST	10.8%	5.2%	5.3%	6.1%	3.9%	0.0%
LSPD	8.6%	6.1%	5.2%	4.5%	1.3%	0.0%
SNOW	7.0%	7.9%	9.9%	5.0%	0.0%	0.0%
ZS	6.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NET	2.0%	9.0%	9.8%	11.8%	12.5%	15.2%
TWOU	0.2%	0.7%	0.6%	0.4%	0.6%	2.5%
cash	20.7%	20.7%	6.2%	5.9%	16.6%	32.6%

**MTD and YTD performance for each holding**
Ticker	Mo Ch	YTD Ch
DOCU	38.7%	25.8%
DDOG	14.3%	5.7%
CRWD	13.1%	18.6%
UPST	-15.7%	206.5%
LSPD	16.2%	18.8%
SNOW	1.6%	-14.1%
ZS	11.3%	8.2%
NET	29.0%	39.3%
TWOU	14.7%	4.4%

June Summary: In early June I sold out of Asana (oops) and Zoom. This week I sold out of Twilio as well. I started a position in ZScaler again, as they’ve been putting up some very impressive numbers. I added to Docusign and Upstart and Lightspeed, and I trimmed Crowdstrike and Datadog slightly. I trimmed Cloudflare quite a lot. I neither added to nor trimmed Snowflake. I’m down to 8 positions, if you don’t count tiny 2U.

Docusign (DOCU)
11/30/2020: 227.88 (Market Cap Approx: $47b, TTM Revenue: $1.164b)
12/31/2020: $222.30 (Market Cap Approx: $47b, TTM Revenue: $1.297b)
01/29/2021: $232.89 (Market Cap Approx: $49b, TTM Revenue: $1.297b)
02/26/2021: $226.66 (Market Cap Approx: $48b, TTM Revenue: $1.297b)
03/31/2021: $202.45 (Market Cap Approx: $43b, TTM Revenue: $1.453b)
04/30/2021: $222.94 (Market Cap Approx: $47b, TTM Revenue: $1.453b)
05/28/2021: $201.62 (Market Cap Approx: $42b, TTM Revenue: $1.453b)
06/30/2021: $279.57 (Market Cap Approx: $59b, TTM Revenue: $1.625b)

Docusign was up almost 40% this month, and in my opinion it deserved it. Earnings were everything I could have hoped and more: https://discussion.fool.com/docusign-remembered-34853893.aspx I still believe this one to be undervalued, personally, and haven’t been able to bring myself to trim any.

Datadog (DDOG)
02/26/2021: $95.41 (Market Cap Approx: $33b, TTM Revenue: $604m)
03/31/2021: $83.34 (Market Cap Approx: $29b, TTM Revenue: $604m)
04/30/2021: $85.77 (Market Cap Approx: $30b, TTM Revenue: $604m)
05/28/2021: $91.05 (Market Cap Approx: $31b, TTM Revenue: $671m)
06/30/2021: $104.08 (Market Cap Approx: $36b, TTM Revenue: $671m)

The rebound continues. I’ve been loathe to trim, but I started to do so this month. All the news is good, though, and I expect a great Q2, so I plan to keep a large position here.

Crowdstrike (CRWD)
10/31/2020: $123.84 (Market Cap Approx: $27b, TTM Revenue: $654m)
12/04/2020: $167.26 (Market Cap Approx: $36b, TTM Revenue: $654m)
12/31/2020: $211.82 (Market Cap Approx: $50b, TTM Revenue: $762m)
01/29/2021: $215.80 (Market Cap Approx: $51b, TTM Revenue: $762m)
02/26/2021: $216.00 (Market Cap Approx: $51b, TTM Revenue: $762m)
03/31/2021: $182.51 (Market Cap Approx: $43b, TTM Revenue: $875m)
04/30/2021: $208.51 (Market Cap Approx: $50b, TTM Revenue: $875m)
05/28/2021: $222.15 (Market Cap Approx: $53b, TTM Revenue: $875m)
06/30/2021: $251.31 (Market Cap Approx: $60b, TTM Revenue: $875m)

Same as Datadog, I’ve trimmed a little Crowdstrike as it’s retaken all time highs, but the company is doing great, and I plan to have a large position here as long as that’s the case.

Upstart (UPST)
02/26/2021: $65.64 Market Cap Approx: $4.8b, TTM Revenue: $234m)
03/31/2021: $128.86 (Market Cap Approx: $12b, TTM Revenue: $234m)
04/30/2021: $109.02 (Market Cap Approx: $10b, TTM Revenue: $234m)
05/28/2021: $148.22 (Market Cap Approx: $14b, TTM Revenue: $291m)
06/30/2021: $124.90 (Market Cap Approx: $12b, TTM Revenue: $291m)

I trimmed earlier in the month, and now I’ve added to make this a large position. I’m all about taking the opportunities the market gives me. Unless Upstart heads back to near-$200 in the next month or two, I expect any adding and trimming to be calmer from here on out. I fully expect TTM revenue to take another big jump when they report in August.

Lightspeed (LSPD)
02/26/2021: $68.42 (Market Cap Approx: $8.1b, TTM Revenue: $176m)
03/31/2021: $62.81 (Market Cap Approx: $7.4b, TTM Revenue: $176m)
04/30/2021: $69.81 (Market Cap Approx: $8.2b, TTM Revenue: $176m)
05/28/2021: $71.99 (Market Cap Approx: $8.9b, TTM Revenue: $222m)
06/30/2021: $83.61 (Market Cap Approx: $10b, TTM Revenue: $222m)

Whenever my cash position gets a little larger than I want, I buy a little more Lightspeed. Other than Upstart, this one has the most potential to soar…for one thing because it’s not already a large company like most of my others. I think their customers are in for a good year, and that bodes well for Lightspeed.

Snowflake (SNOW)
03/31/2021: $229.28 (Market Cap Approx: $68b, TTM Revenue: $592m)
04/30/2021: $231.59 (Market Cap Approx: $68b, TTM Revenue: $592m)
05/28/2021: $238.03 (Market Cap Approx: $71b, TTM Revenue: $712m)
06/30/2021: $241.80 (Market Cap Approx: $72b, TTM Revenue: $712m)

This company is “bigger” than revenue TTM revenue makes it look: https://discussion.fool.com/snow-what-i-was-missing-34787302.asp… Revenue guide is for over $1 billion this year…unfortunately they barely raised it when they reported in May. I think they’re just being conservative, and maybe the raise will come in future quarters, but to be fair, we need to see that from a company valued like this.

ZScaler (ZS)
05/28/2021: $194.20 (Market Cap Approx: $28b, TTM Revenue: $536m)
06/30/2021: $216.06 (Market Cap Approx: $32b, TTM Revenue: $602m)

Zscaler is growing almost as fast as Crowdstrike and Datadog. I don’t trust ZS nearly as much, hence the smaller position. But the opportunity is there. They, like Crowdstrike, will have some tailwinds behind them as cybersecurity is in the spotlight.

Cloudflare (NET)
10/31/2020: $51.97 (Market Cap Approx: $16b, TTM Revenue: $349m)
12/04/2020: $77.35 (Market Cap Approx: $23b, TTM Revenue: $389m)
12/31/2020: $75.99 (Market Cap Approx: $23b, TTM Revenue: $389m)
01/29/2021: $76.66 (Market Cap Approx: $23b, TTM Revenue: $389m)
02/26/2021: $73.97 (Market Cap Approx: $23b, TTM Revenue: $431m)
03/31/2021: $70.26 (Market Cap Approx: $22b, TTM Revenue: $431m)
04/30/2021: $84.74 (Market Cap Approx: $26b, TTM Revenue: $431m)
05/28/2021: $82.06 (Market Cap Approx: $25b, TTM Revenue: $478m)
06/30/2021: $105.84 (Market Cap Approx: $33b, TTM Revenue: $478m)

Cloudflare is extremely expensive compared to everything else, even many companies which are growing much faster. I still love it for the long term, and I would be happy to build it back up later if the price goes down or the company catches up to the price over time. Then again, the valuation may stay at this level or even go higher, in which case I’d miss out. I can live with that. Cash is more valuable to me right now than NET shares, because I think the likelihood is high that I will get an opportunity to buy it, or something else, at a better price in the near future.

Closing Thoughts

This may sound weird to many Fools, but I’ve been trying to trade a bit more lately. When Upstart got up to $150, 160, 170, 180, 190…I took advantage of that fat pitch and trimmed quite a bit. And when it came back down to $130, 125, 120, 115…well, I added back. Now I am attempting to do similarly with Cloudflare.

But that’s just what works for me. Some equally (or far more) intelligent investors who hang around these parts don’t want to be so active. And that works for them.

However you are managing your portfolio, I wish you the best in July and beyond!

Bear

“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn’t … pays it.” - Attributed to Albert Einstein

Previous Month Summaries

Dec 2016 (contains links to all 2016 monthly posts): http://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-at-the-end-of-2016-…
Dec 2017 (contains links to all 2017 monthly posts): http://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-dec-2017-32…
Dec 2018 (contains links to all 2018 monthly posts): https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-dec-2018-3…
Dec 2019 (contains links to all 2019 monthly posts): https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-dec-2019-3…
Dec 2020 (contains links to all 2020 monthly posts): https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-dec-2020-3…
Jan 2021: https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-012021-347…
Feb 2021: https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-022021-347…
Mar 2021: https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-032021-347…
Apr 2021: https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-042021-348…
May 2021: https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-052021-348…

161 Likes

Paul
What is your reason for selling out of TWLO? Curious

4 Likes

What is your reason for selling out of TWLO? Curious

I sold all my small to tiny positions – Twilio and Asana and Zoom. With small positions, I’m kind of always looking to add (because of increasing confidence) or sell (to simplify my life). While I think Twilio will do great in the long run, I couldn’t convince myself it has nearly as much upside as the other companies I’ve got. I also saw that it was up almost 20% in June, so it seemed as good a time as any to cut it loose.

So I guess I sold to simplify my life. If I had 20 stocks, Twilio would be one of them. They could surprise – and Twilio’s stock could outpace some of my favorites…though I imagine it would take some more shrewd acquisitions at the least. But I like simple. 8 positions (besides 2U) feels good right now.

Bear

24 Likes

So I guess I sold to simplify my life. If I had 20 stocks, Twilio would be one of them. They could surprise – and Twilio’s stock could outpace some of my favorites…though I imagine it would take some more shrewd acquisitions at the least. But I like simple. 8 positions (besides 2U) feels good right now.

Bear,

Thank you for the clarification… I understand simplicity.

I am long TWLO. It is the smallest of my 9 holdings and has survived all the cuts I’ve made to achieve a smaller and simpler portfolio.

I find several things to like about TWLO.

Current Y/Y rev growth 62%

Strong and probably understated guidance for Q2

Growth of international business

Probable increase in gross margins as messaging becomes a smaller fraction of the business.

Growth in estimated TAM to $110 B in the next 2 years.

Accelerating rate of acquisition of new customers

IMHO Communication as a Service is something that every enterprise will come to require, like data, security and identification. As the variety of communication modes, methods and contact points grow so will the market for TWLO products.

Jeff Lawson in his public statements continuously repeats his belief that developers can use TWLO to create additional modes of communication and he backs that up with examples of novel use cases.And Lawson continually beats the drum for developers and expounds on their importance in the evolution of new communication methods and products. It is a seductive tale.

A number of posters on the board have looked at TWLO with a skeptical eye because of a projected op loss, a consequence of delayed expenses engendered by Covid…Another concern relates to the string of acquisitions and the need to assimilate them into on going business.

Well, this all needs to be watched, but the potential universe of communications is large and the emphasis on development is attractive and productive and so I remain long on TWLO for the nonce.

cheers
draj

26 Likes