Bear's Portfolio through 08/2021

PaulWBryant · August 31, 2021, 7:05pm


**Port Return**
Jan +7.3% YTD
Feb +6.7% YTD
Mar +2.0% YTD
Apr +9.8% YTD
May +12.4% YTD
Jun +29.2% YTD
Jul +33.9% YTD
Aug +65.1% YTD

**Port Changes**
Ticker	Curr%	July	June	May	Apr	Mar	Feb	Jan
UPST	15.6%	13.8%	10.8%	5.2%	5.3%	6.1%	3.9%	0.0%
DOCU	15.1%	15.7%	16.1%	9.9%	10.8%	10.5%	11.1%	11.3%
CRWD	13.2%	14.1%	12.9%	18.7%	14.6%	15.8%	12.9%	14.5%
DDOG	11.8%	14.4%	15.0%	17.7%	14.7%	12.9%	8.6%	0.0%
LSPD	8.4%	9.0%	8.6%	6.1%	5.2%	4.5%	1.3%	0.0%
ROKU	3.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
cash	32.3%	19.2%	20.7%	20.7%	6.2%	5.9%	16.6%	32.6%

**MTD and YTD performance for each holding**
Ticker	Price	Mo Ch	 YTD Ch
UPST	$229.12  89.7%  462.3%
DOCU	$296.24  -0.6%  33.3%
CRWD	$281.00  10.8%  32.7%
DDOG	$137.80  24.5%  40.0%
LSPD	$111.18  30.0%  57.9%
ROKU	$352.40  -17.7%  6.1%

What a month August was! Upstart was up 90%! In 31 days! Lightspeed was up 30%. Datadog 25%. Those at least reported fantastic earnings. Zscaler was up almost 20% on no news at all (other than good news for competitor Palo Alto Networks). “Preposterous!” …to quote Saul.
I sold out of my small Snowflake position, which I’ve written about:
https://discussion.fool.com/snow-updated-beliefs-34915295.aspx
https://discussion.fool.com/snowflake39s-customers-34916031.aspx…
https://discussion.fool.com/great-post-ethan-while-i-agree-with-…
I also sold out of my small Zscaler position today. I never really got comfortable with it enough to add…instead I kept trimming, and today I think it is priced for perfection.
Lastly, I added a small Roku position – more on that below.
I’m down to just 5 fairly large positions, 1 small position (Roku), and a large cash position.

Upstart (UPST)
02/26/2021: $65.64 Market Cap Approx: $4.8b, TTM Revenue: $234m)
03/31/2021: $128.86 (Market Cap Approx: $12b, TTM Revenue: $234m)
04/30/2021: $109.02 (Market Cap Approx: $10b, TTM Revenue: $234m)
05/28/2021: $148.22 (Market Cap Approx: $14b, TTM Revenue: $291m)
06/30/2021: $124.90 (Market Cap Approx: $12b, TTM Revenue: $291m)
07/30/2021: $120.76 (Market Cap Approx: $11b, TTM Revenue: $291m)
08/31/2021: $229.12 (Market Cap Approx: $22b, TTM Revenue: $467m) amazing jump here

Well last month I said Upstart had “more upside potential than just about anything right now” but I didn’t think they’d be up 90% in one month! Count your lucky stars you know about this company and (hopefully) have been and continue to be invested in it!

Docusign (DOCU)
11/30/2020: 227.88 (Market Cap Approx: $47b, TTM Revenue: $1.164b)
12/31/2020: $222.30 (Market Cap Approx: $47b, TTM Revenue: $1.297b)
01/29/2021: $232.89 (Market Cap Approx: $49b, TTM Revenue: $1.297b)
02/26/2021: $226.66 (Market Cap Approx: $48b, TTM Revenue: $1.297b)
03/31/2021: $202.45 (Market Cap Approx: $43b, TTM Revenue: $1.453b)
04/30/2021: $222.94 (Market Cap Approx: $47b, TTM Revenue: $1.453b)
05/28/2021: $201.62 (Market Cap Approx: $42b, TTM Revenue: $1.453b)
06/30/2021: $279.57 (Market Cap Approx: $59b, TTM Revenue: $1.625b)
07/30/2021: $298.04 (Market Cap Approx: $63b, TTM Revenue: $1.625b)
08/31/2021: $296.24 (Market Cap Approx: $62b, TTM Revenue: $1.625b)

Well, Docusign was again forgotten in August. Even after this great report from June: https://discussion.fool.com/docusign-remembered-34853893.aspx I still believe this one to be undervalued, personally, and I’ve even added a little more. We’ll see if they can do what I expect (hopefully more) when they report this Thursday: https://discussion.fool.com/docusign-priors-34920245.aspx

Crowdstrike (CRWD)
10/31/2020: $123.84 (Market Cap Approx: $27b, TTM Revenue: $654m)
12/04/2020: $167.26 (Market Cap Approx: $36b, TTM Revenue: $654m)
12/31/2020: $211.82 (Market Cap Approx: $50b, TTM Revenue: $762m)
01/29/2021: $215.80 (Market Cap Approx: $51b, TTM Revenue: $762m)
02/26/2021: $216.00 (Market Cap Approx: $51b, TTM Revenue: $762m)
03/31/2021: $182.51 (Market Cap Approx: $43b, TTM Revenue: $875m)
04/30/2021: $208.51 (Market Cap Approx: $50b, TTM Revenue: $875m)
05/28/2021: $222.15 (Market Cap Approx: $53b, TTM Revenue: $875m)
06/30/2021: $251.31 (Market Cap Approx: $60b, TTM Revenue: $999m)
07/30/2021: $253.61 (Market Cap Approx: $61b, TTM Revenue: $999m)
08/31/2021: $281.00 (Market Cap Approx: $667b, TTM Revenue: $1.138b)

Crowdstrike fell early this month, then roared back. I got to add a lot, but trimmed it back as it went up. Trimmed a little more today after the report. As you know if you saw my expectations:
https://discussion.fool.com/crowdstrike-priors-34916902.aspx
And the first part of this: https://discussion.fool.com/docusign-priors-34920245.aspx
…I was a little disappointed that Revenue and Guidance came in lighter than I hoped. After Palo Alto (their competitor) had a huge quarter a week or two ago, I was hoping Crowdsrike would accelerate. I thought they could really surprise. Instead it was par at best…which is at least slightly disappointing. Still, strong customer adds…I am not sure if I’ll trim it further. Crowdstrike has become a great company. But we have to remember what is expected of these companies when it comes to growth (ie, sustained hypergrowth). Any less and the stock will stagnate.

Datadog (DDOG)
02/26/2021: $95.41 (Market Cap Approx: $33b, TTM Revenue: $604m)
03/31/2021: $83.34 (Market Cap Approx: $29b, TTM Revenue: $604m)
04/30/2021: $85.77 (Market Cap Approx: $30b, TTM Revenue: $604m)
05/28/2021: $91.05 (Market Cap Approx: $31b, TTM Revenue: $671m)
06/30/2021: $104.08 (Market Cap Approx: $36b, TTM Revenue: $671m)
07/30/2021: $110.70 (Market Cap Approx: $38b, TTM Revenue: $671m)
08/31/2021: $137.80 (Market Cap Approx: $47b, TTM Revenue: $765m)

Trimmed this one after the awesome quarter and big run up. It will remain a top 5 position.

Lightspeed (LSPD)
02/26/2021: $68.42 (Market Cap Approx: $8.1b, TTM Revenue: $176m)
03/31/2021: $62.81 (Market Cap Approx: $7.4b, TTM Revenue: $176m)
04/30/2021: $69.81 (Market Cap Approx: $8.2b, TTM Revenue: $176m)
05/28/2021: $71.99 (Market Cap Approx: $8.9b, TTM Revenue: $222m)
06/30/2021: $83.61 (Market Cap Approx: $10b, TTM Revenue: $222m)
07/30/2021: $85.53 (Market Cap Approx: $11b, TTM Revenue: $222m)
08/31/2021: $111.18 (Market Cap Approx: $15b, TTM Revenue: $301m)

Lightspeed had a great quarter on 8/5. The market’s response was delayed, doing not much at first, but now it’s been on a tear. I’ve trimmed, but only slightly.

Roku (ROKU)
08/31/2021: $352.40 (Market Cap Approx: $50b, TTM Revenue: $1.789b)

I bought Roku this month after a good but not perfect report sent the stock down. I think they’ll rebound but my conviction is not high. We’ll see…not sure if I’ll keep it or not. Obviously I plan for it to remain a small position.

Closing Thoughts

I really want to make it clear that I don’t think we should try to time the market. That said, I look for companies that are in the hypergrowth stage with no signs of slowing down and a long runway ahead. Impostor companies are everywhere and the true blue winners are hard to find. Upstarts don’t come around every day, folks! So I know my cash position is high, but help me find the next great company, and I will invest in it!

Thanks. I love this board – thanks to Saul and everyone who helps make it great. Happy September.

Bear

“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn’t … pays it.” - Attributed to Albert Einstein

bagman8 · August 31, 2021, 10:48pm

Thanks so much, as always, for sharing your portfolio updates & insights Bear. One minor question I have on your results is in regard to the market cap of UPST. I have consistently seen this number listed at 17.8b (at todays price of $229)rather than the 22b you have reported. I’m not certain if that number reflects the dilution of the recent secondary, but even so I don’t believe the secondary was large enough to account for the difference in our figures.

I realize this is a minor issue for a stock with such a long runway, enormous TAM and years of growth ahead, but just curious if your sources are better than mine as I tinker with my own projections.

Thanks.

MovedOn · September 1, 2021, 12:02am

I like that Bear’s portfolio contains substantial cash most of the time and the return is still amazing. This is the way I want to do it in the future. I find that having lots of cash will make us more peaceful and at ease.It reduces stress. It helps with market decline and as you said always ready to buy when opportunity knocks. Warren Buffett likes to hold lots of cash too. Spending all cash is indication of impatience. Can’t wait for opportunities.

One question though, does the return numbers posted here include the cash? or stocks only. It’s not obviously stated. Others may wonder the same thing.

johshaw · September 1, 2021, 3:36am

Bagman8, if you refer to their most recent ER there CFO provides the number of shares outstanding at the end of the qtr. This is what you should use, not what Yahoo Finance and some other use.

PaulWBryant · September 1, 2021, 6:57am

Bagman (and Joshaw) – if you have a question (or an answer) about market cap it would be helpful to include your calculation! Here’s mine:

94.9m shares outstanding X $229.12 per share = $21.7 billion market cap

You can find the diluted share count on their Q2 press release under the 3rd quarter outlook: Diluted Weighted-Average Share Count of approximately 94.9 million shares
https://ir.upstart.com/news-releases/news-release-details/up…

There may be sites (Yahoo?) that use the basic, non-diluted, share count. Or there may be sites that are wrong! As Saul always preaches, get your number from the company itself! And when they give multiple counts (or a count for this quarter and guidance for a higher count next quarter) I always use the highest number. (Also note that weighted numbers can take a couple quarters to normalize after an IPO…it can actually be tricky, so be careful!)

Note (switching now to my role as Assistant Board Manager): We cannot provide answers to investing questions like these on the board! Teach yourself to fish – it will be worth it. Then some day you can answer these questions for your friends and family.

And another thing we can’t discuss on the board is portfolio management. I’ve gotten questions off-board about my cash position (and one on-board…please do not do this) so let me quickly just say:

Yes my return includes cash (which obviously returns 0% over any time held and drags down my overall return), but also options gains (options discussion verboten here), so your mileage may vary. See the Knowledge base on how Saul explains ## Calculating Portfolio Returns: https://discussion.fool.com/knowledgebase-2019-part-2-34381931.a…
The reason I’m holding cash is because:
a) the positions I hold are as large as I want them to be
and b) I don’t have any new positions I’m looking to start right now
Do what works for you

And that is all I have to say about that. Please, no more questions on cash position, or portfolio management. We all have to learn what works for us as individuals.

Thanks,
Bear
Assistant Board Manager