Bear's Portfolio through Aug2 2019

My 2019 Portfolio Performance YTD as of

Jan +22.48%
Feb +33.46%
Mar +38.27%
Apr +46.86%
May +43.50%
Jun +58.27%
Aug2 +65.38%

(Unfortunately I failed to record my month-end numbers on Wednesday 7/31, so I’ll have to do my July review as of Friday 8/2)

Previous Month Summaries
Dec 2016 (contains links to all 2016 monthly posts):…
Dec 2017 (contains links to all 2017 monthly posts):…
Dec 2018 (contains links to all 2018 monthly posts):…
Jan 2019:…
Feb 2019:…
Mar 2019:…
Apr 2019:…
May 2019:…
Jun 2019:…

New 2019
January - DOCU
February - SAIL
March - TTD (again), ESTC (again) and MDB (again)
April - None
May - SQ (again), ZS (again), EVBG, PLAN
Jul - MDB (again)

Sold 2018
January - SHOP, SQ
February - WIX, MDB
March - PSTG, ZS
April - None
Jul - None

My Current Allocations

Ticker	Curr%	Buy/S	Mo Ch	YTD Ch
TTD	9.4%	0%	14.6%	124.9%
AYX	9.4%	-25%	19.3%	118.9%
SMAR	9.1%	15%	4.0%	102.5%
ESTC	9.0%	14%	26.3%	32.0%
MDB	8.4%	NEW	-7.4%	68.1%
TWLO	8.0%	-17%	-1.9%	49.7%
DOCU	4.4%	-43%	-1.8%	21.8%
CRWD	4.2%	33%	28.9%	#DIV/0!
TDOC	4.2%	0%	4.8%	40.5%
EVBG	3.6%	0%	11.3%	75.3%
PLAN	3.3%	0%	10.6%	110.2%
ZS	3.0%	0%	8.9%	112.9%
SQ	2.5%	0%	-4.0%	24.1%
FSLY	1.1%	0%	-6.6%	#DIV/0!
TWOU	0.8%	100%	-63.7%	-72.5%
options	0.2%			
cash	19.4%			



Bought MDB, again, as I mentioned at the end of this post.… When Ethan and I ran the numbers it made me realize Atlas might still be growing faster than I thought. Just days later I increased my position. I don’t have a more slam-dunk company to put my money with, so I figure this is worth a large position.



Added to or Trimmed

Trimmed AYX - It grew a little too large, but the report ended up being incredible…I may add some back soon.

Added to SMAR - The guided confidently and I think the coming report will be more of the same – strength all around.

Added to ESTC - Just a bit more on the way up. What a month for this one on almost zero news!

Trimmed TWLO, as I mentioned today:…

Trimmed DOCU after thinking more about this thread:…
Not sure if I’m optimistic or you guys are paranoid, but you swayed me a bit.

Added to CRWD as I mentioned here:…

Doubled my tiny TWOU position before they reported, thinking the upside was larger than the downside. Boy was I wrong! Here’s a good article covering the debacle:…


Didn’t evaluate many candidates this month…focused on getting my allocations where I want them.

Wrapping Up

As I said here:…, AYX, SMAR, ESTC, PLAN, ZS, MDB and others all have TTM revenue of about 300m or less. So scale might not become a problem for 2 or 3 years. I also think TTD may have a loooooong runway ahead because the market it’s after is so huge. So despite their being a bit larger than these others, they’re a top position for me too.

Still, for most of these, their PS ratios are around 25 on average. These will work out just fine if they keep growing massively…but if they falter, look out! Therefore I’m not sporting any 10%+ positions at present. I do have my cash position under 20%, though, so I’m happy about that.

Good luck, everyone!


“I guarantee nothing but hard work.” - Bear Bryant, Alabama Football Coach, 1958 - 1982

“A man’s gotta know his limitations.” - Dirty Harry

“If you must tell me your opinions, tell me what you believe in. I have plenty of doubts of my own.” attributed to Goethe (but not sourced)

“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn’t … pays it.” - Attributed to Albert Einstein

“exponential compounded growth does not fit the analytical backward looking skill sets of most Wall street analysts” - mauser96

“I presume the thing is to ride the momentum for the short squeeze and exit fast with enough money for a few months supply of whisky before everyone realises it’s a value trap.” - Strelna