Ben’s Portfolio update end of April 2026
Returns and portfolio holdings:
Portfolio Notes 2022 -15.6%* *Jul-Dec, since I started posting my portfolio on Saul’s and fully adopting my version of Saul’s investing approach. 2023 77.8% 2024 31.7% 2025 24.9% 2026 YTD Month Jan -8.2% -8.2% Feb -15.9% -8.3% Mar -14.7% 1.3% Apr -9.4% 6.3%
*time stamp: April 30, after market close
These are my current positions:
Apr 2026 Mar 2026 First buy* Cloudflare 23.5% 25.1% 11/2/2020 Nvidia 22.8% 21.2% 5/13/2020 Datadog 13.7% 13.0% 5/13/2020 Crowdstrike 10.9% 10.1% 5/13/2020 Snowflake 8.5% 9.9% 2/8/2021 Axon 6.6% 7.4% 4/2/2024 AppLovin 5.6% 5.3% 11/18/2025 Astera Labs 3.5% 2.1% 11/18/2025 Samsara 3.2% 3.7% 1/8/2024 Zscaler 1.9% 2.2% 3/4/2021
*time stamp: April 30, after market close
*held through today
Expectations for upcoming earnings
In the following I summarize my expectations for the companies reporting this earnings season. The goal of this exercise is to come up with reasonable earnings expectations. The goal here is not to be absolutely accurate, but to be able to identify when a company surprises in either a good or a bad way. That way it will be easier for me to identify if a change in conviction level is warranted. Also, just because a company exceeds or performs below my expectation with a single metric, that doesn’t necessarily mean my conviction has to change. Really, what this exercise does is it helps me to think about my companies holistically. Therefore, I think it is valuable to come up with these expectations before they report as it will help me to keep the companies (and myself) accountable and minimize any cognitive bias once the results are out.
A practical way for me to come up with those numbers is by asking a couple questions. For example “what revenue growth rate would continue the trends the company is currently following?” (Looking at revenue growth trends AND other metrics.) And then when I have a number in mind, I ask myself “If the company reaches less than this number, would I be negatively surprised?“; “If the company reaches more than this number, would I be positively surprised?” If the answer is yes to both questions I write it down below. Same goes for all other quantitative metrics below.
Cloudflare:
- Reporting Fiscal Q1 2026 on 5/7/26.
- Revenue expectation: $642M (4.5% QoQ, 34.0% YoY), implying a 3.5% beat.
- Q2 new revenue guide: $665M (3.5% QoQ, 29.7% YoY) which I would interpret as $687M (7.0% QoQ, 34.1% YoY) expecting YoY growth rate to stay constant.
- I would like to see NRR at 120%.
- I would like to see total customer growth around 6% QoQ (~20000 net adds).
- I would like to see large customer growth around 0.9% QoQ (~40 net adds, compared to last Q1’s 30 adds).
- I would like to see RPO grow around 10.5% QoQ to $2.76b (48% YoY).
- I would like to see cRPO grow around 5.3% QoQ to $1.66b (34.5% YoY).
- I would like to see Gross Margin greater or equal to 75%.
- I would like to see operating income around $78M (12.2% margin vs. 11.7% last Q1).
- I would like to see a FCF margin around 14.0% ($91M) and Capex around 14.9% of revenue ($96M).
- Detailed thoughts: Cloudflare’s 4Q25 earnings recap.
Nvidia:
- Reporting Fiscal Q1 2027 on 05/20/26.
- Revenue expectation: $81120M (19.1% QoQ, 84.1% YoY), implying a 4% beat; they beat two years ago’s Q1 guide by 8.5%, Q2 guide by 7.3%, Q3 guide by 7.9%, Q4 guide by 4.9%. Then last Q1 guide by only 2.5%, their Q2 guide by 3.9%, their Q3 guide by 5.6% and their Q4 guide by 4.8%.
- Q2 new revenue guide: $90800M (12% QoQ, 83% YoY) which I would interpret as $94000M (16% QoQ, 100% YoY), expecting further YoY acceleration.
- I would like to see GAAP gross margin around 71.8%.
- I would like to see non-GAAP gross margin above 72.0%.
- Detailed thoughts: Nvidia’s 4Q26 earnings recap.
Snowflake:
- Reporting Fiscal Q1 2027 around 05/20/26.
- Product revenue expectation: $1300M (6% QoQ, 30.4% YoY), implying a 2.8% beat; $73M net new product revenue.
- Q2 new product revenue guide: $1378M (6% QoQ, 26.4% YoY) which I would interpret as $1417M (9% QoQ, 30% YoY), implying a 3% beat and that revenue growth will be roughly stable YoY.
- NRR around 125%.
- I would like to see RPO around $9.48b, corresponding to 41.8% YoY growth and cRPO around $4.46b, corresponding to 32.2% YoY growth.
- I would like to see total customer growth around 5% QoQ (~666 adds) and $1M+ customer growth around 5% QoQ (~37 adds).
- I would like to see stable edge customer growth very roughly around 10% QoQ (~533 adds), market place listings growth very roughly around 2% (~74 adds) and AI adoption to reach about 78% of customers.
- I would like to see continued strength in profitability margins, with OM ~10%, NM ~9%, FCFM ~20%.
- Detailed thoughts: Snowflake’s 4Q26 earnings recap.
Datadog:
- Reporting Fiscal Q1 2026 on 05/07/26 before the market opens.
- Revenue expectation: $994M (4.3% QoQ, 30.6% YoY), implying a 4.0% beat.
- Q2 new revenue guide: $1034M (4.0% QoQ, 25.1% YoY) which I would interpret as $1074M (8.0% QoQ, 29.9% YoY) expecting YoY growth will stay close to 30%.
- My Q1 revenue expectation implies about $41M raw sequential revenue increase (up from $24M last Q1).
- I would like to see RPO at around $3.53b (2% QoQ, 52.8% YoY growth) and cRPO YoY growth at 40%.
- I would like to see Billings at around $1.00b (-17.5% QoQ, 33.5% YoY growth).
- I would like to see QoQ customer growth around 2.0% (~650 new) and for the $100k+ cohort, around 4.4% QoQ (~190 new).
- I would like to see continued multi-product adoption progress with 2+, 4+, 6+, 8+ and 10+ products cohort percentages to stay stable at 84%, 55%, 33%, 18% and 9%.
- I would like to see NRR around 120%.
- I would like to see OM ~22%, NM ~26%, FCFM ~30%. Furthermore, I’d like to see operating expense YoY growth below revenue YoY growth.
- Detailed thoughts: Datadog’s 4Q25 earnings recap.
Zscaler:
- Reporting Fiscal Q3 2026 around 06/28/26.
- Revenue expectation: $852M (4.4% QoQ, 25.6% YoY), implying a 2% beat.
- Q4 new revenue guide: $883M (3.7% QoQ, 22.8% YoY) which I would interpret as $900M (5.7% QoQ, 25.2% YoY) expecting slight YoY deceleration.
- I would like to see ARR of around $3.56b (6% QoQ, 26.4% YoY).
- I would like to see RPO growth of around 7% QoQ (to $6.47b) and cRPO of about $3.0b (27% YoY).
- I would like to see >100k ARR customer growth around 2.5% QoQ (~132 net adds).
- I would like to see >1M ARR customer growth around 3% QoQ (~22 net adds).
- I would like to see an operating income around $188M (22% margin).
- I would like to see an FCF around $179M (21% margin).
- Detailed thoughts: Zscaler’s 2Q26 earnings recap.
Crowdstrike:
- Reporting Fiscal Q1 2027 around 06/04/26.
- Revenue expectation: $1373M (5.2% QoQ, 24.4% YoY), implying a 0.8% beat this Q.
- Q2 new revenue guide: $1435M (4.5% QoQ, 22.7% YoY) which I would interpret as $1448M (5.5% QoQ, 23.9% YoY), expecting roughly stable YoY growth.
- Net new ARR of around $289M (-12.7% QoQ and ARR +5.5% QoQ).
- I would like to see around $9.45b RPO (5% QoQ, 39% YoY); cRPO around $4.73b (50% of RPO, 33.6% YoY).
- I would like to see NRR greater or equal to 115% (not reported until Q4).
- I would like to see about $316M operating income.
- I would like to see about $280M net income.
- I would like to see no multi-product customer decline.
- I would like to see gross retention close to 97%.
- Detailed thoughts: Crowdstrike’s 4Q26 earnings recap.
Samsara:
- Reporting Fiscal Q1 2027 around 06/04/26.
- Revenue expectation: $475M (7.0% QoQ, 29.6% YoY), implying a 4.5% beat.
- Q2 new revenue guide: $483M (1.5% QoQ, 23.3% YoY) which I would interpret as $504M (6.0% QoQ, 28.7% YoY).
- I would like to see net new ARR around $106M (total ARR around $2.0b).
- I would like to see RPO around $3.91b (3.9% QoQ) and cRPO around $1.72b (31.3% YoY).
- I would like to see core customer NRR around 115%.
- I would like to see around 160 new $100k+ ARR customers (3354 total, 27.1% YoY).
- I would like to see around $82M operating income, corresponding to a 17.4% operating margin.
- Detailed thoughts: Samsara’s 4Q26 earnings recap.
Axon:
- Reporting Fiscal Q1 2026 on 05/06/26.
- Revenue expectation: $836M (5% QoQ, 38.6% YoY), implying that YoY growth stays roughly close to Q4 and same 5% QoQ growth as last Q1.
- Q2 revenue expectation: $903M (8% QoQ, 35% YoY), assuming YoY growth will decelerate somewhat.
- I would like to see around $134M net new ARR (total ARR to ~$1.48b).
- I would like to see RPO around $14.4b.
- I would like to see NRR around 125%.
- I would like to see adjusted gross margin greater than 61%.
- I would like to see adjusted EBITDA around $217M.
- Detailed thoughts: Axon’s 4Q25 earnings recap.
AppLovin:
- Reporting Fiscal Q1 2026 on 05/06/26.
- Revenue expectation: $1857M (12% QoQ, 60.2% YoY), implying a 5.5% beat.
- Q2 new revenue guide: $1913M (3.0% QoQ, 52% YoY) which I would interpret as $1987M (17% QoQ, 58% YoY).
- I would like to see a GAAP Gross Margin of 87-88%.
- I would like to see a FCF margin around 75%.
- I would like to see an Operating margin around 77%.
- I would like to see a Net margin greater or equal to 60%.
- I would like to see an adjusted EBITDA margin greater or equal to 80%.
- Detailed thoughts: AppLovin’s 4Q25 earnings recap.
Astera Labs:
- Reporting Fiscal Q1 2026 on 05/05/26.
- Revenue expectation: $317M (14.5% QoQ, 98.5% YoY), implying an 8.6% beat.
- Q2 new revenue guide: $345M (9% QoQ, 80% YoY) which I would interpret as $380M (20% QoQ, 98% YoY).
- I would like to see a Gross Margin around 76%.
- I would like to see an Operating margin around 39%.
- I would like to see a Net margin around 38%.
- Detailed thoughts: Astera Labs 4Q25 earnings recap.
Wrap up
I am really looking forward to this upcoming earnings season. May and June have historically been months where the portfolio has either gone up a lot or down a lot, typically as a direct result of earnings reports. Looking at my expectations for the companies I own, I am quite optimistic that this earnings season will be great, especially when combined with an easing macro backdrop and how some software companies performed that reported already: Atlassian jumped 30% and Twilio jumped 24% after they both reported strong earnings with significantly accelerating revenue growth and margin expansion, putting a big question mark to the “Software is doomed” thesis (both companies cited AI adoption as a primary reason for larger and longer customer commitments). At the very least, I think these two results signal a bifurcation is likely to happen where high-execution winners that successfully integrate AI will be separated from the losers whose moats are actually eroding. So it’ll be an exciting earnings season …
Wishing you all a great May!
Ben
Past recaps
2022: Jul 2022 | Aug 2022 | Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | Nov 2022 | Dec 2022
2023: Jan 2023 | Feb 2023 | Mar 2023 | Apr 2023 | May 2023 | Jun 2023 | Jul 2023 | Aug 2023 | Sep 2023 | Oct 2023 | Nov 2023 | Dec 2023
2024: Jan 2024 | Feb 2024 | Mar 2024 | Apr 2024 | May 2024 | Jun 2024 | Jul 2024 | Aug 2024 | Sep 2024 | Oct 2024 | Nov 2024 | Dec 2024
2025: Jan 2025 | Feb 2025 | Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | May 2025 | Jun 2025 | Jul 2025 | Aug 2025 | Sep 2025 | Oct 2025 | Nov 2025 | Dec 2025