I have been a longtime follower if this board and benefited greatly for many of you here. Thank you for all that you offer to each of us.
Let me start by saying that I am not one who believes in market timing, but have benefited (at least for now) from building my cash position over the past month. My plan all along has been to put that money to work by increasing positions in AYX, OKTA, DDOG and a few others to take advantage of the drop. However, given the size of the crisis we are facing and the fact that quality blue chips are getting disproportionately crushed by all of the index fund selling (i.e. FB, etc), I was wondering if any of you are also thinking that new money will flow into those select stocks before our “Saul Stocks” and if we should be taking a hard look at any of them. Thanks in advance for your thoughts.
I am only increasing positions in companies that fit into my methodology, prior to this massive downturn. I don’t change my own code based on the highs or lows in the market.
Sure, MSFT and FB look like absolute bargains, but I choose to focus on the bargains within the companies that I have already taken the time to invest in. DDOG, AYX, OKTA, ROKU, etc., are companies that I was happy with grabbing at $111 (ROKU) and $124 (AYX), so I am more than happy to DCA those a lot lower. Someone much brighter than I will probably elaborate with your wondering on new money.
I don’t disagree but I am wondering whether any of you think the macro conditions force us to consider looking elsewhere for part of our portfolios which likely depends on whether the market will be willing to place the same high multiple on our growth stocks when other apparent bargains (likely without as high of a ceiling) are starting to gather on the floor.
Perhaps not elsewhere; however, profitability, cash on hand and debt (and how that debt is structured) must be factored more carefully in this uncertain credit environment, IMHO.
This is very off-topic and you didn’t tell us your goal.
But you asked for thoughts and here are mine, by way of 5 possible goal descriptions, backed up by historic data (which does not guarantee a repeat of “normal”!) and dependent on your GOALS. Keep in mind that these are only the opinions of an amateur investor.
If there is a stock you’ve always wanted, but at a more “reasonable” price than has been available for x years (let’s say “GOOGL” just for fun): This is a good time to buy that favorite / those favorites, in stages as the price dips or rises, your choice based on risk tolerance.
You want great returns but are unable/unwilling to follow companies closely, read cc transcripts regularly, etc.: a) This is a good time to buy those favorites in stages, in the manner described above. b) Alternately, you could build a portfolio of Saul stocks with sizes based on the average holding size of Saul + Paul + Chris + _____ and let them run. c) You could follow any combination of a) and b) above for a truly custom and eclectic portfolio.
You believe in SaaS, the cloud, recurring revenue, software and are willing and able to follow companies closely: Follow the board here and invest as you feel is most advantageous to your wealth.
You want the very best short-term return in the recovery to follow this downturn: Buy junk, crap, and “loser” stocks that were hammered the worst. (In a typical (larger) recovery, small-cap “junk” equities recover 8x large-cap prices!) Note: some may go to zero. < NOT RECOMMENDED FOR AMATEURS or part-time investors > Bail when your returns are adequate to compensate for the considerable risk taken.
Your goal is not represented here. Sorry 'bout that, you need to keep searching for answers. Good luck.
If your goal is 1), good luck to you.
If your goal is 2) or3), welcome to the board.
If your goal is 4), please know what you are doing and good luck to you. (You may need it!)
If your goal is 5), Sorry for the failure.
However, given the size of the crisis we are facing and the fact that quality blue chips are getting disproportionately crushed by all of the index fund selling (i.e. FB, etc), I was wondering if any of you are also thinking that new money will flow into those select stocks before our “Saul Stocks” and if we should be taking a hard look at any of them.
What the OT questioner is asking is whether the conventional stocks that are down way more than our “overvalued” stocks will bounce more and rise more on up-days and any rebound. What he doesn’t seem to realize is that our stocks are down less, and the conventional stocks are down more, for very good reasons (which I won’t repeat as we have enumerated them many times). And the answer to his question is evident today when, last time I looked the markets were “big-up” 4% and my portfolio was up 11%.