Boil trading at multi year lows

Charlie,

Possibly one reason your charts look so strange is due to how much ‘right margin free space’ you’ve allocated. To change that, open the ‘Settings’ menu, and select ‘Scale’. The fourth item in the drop down menu should be set with a low number.

Free

Hi Arindam,

I tried that , but didnt change it much.

Again, the chart seems to work absolutely fine, when I keep at the 2 month range.

However, I was just trying to learn about the 1 day chart and movements.

And that is when it looks so messy…and I believe it is because for the day range, mine still shows at 2 hours interval in the X-axis, while Quill managed to show the time interval in 30 minutes on the X-axis

This is the way I get on a one day range with 5 minute - see my X-axis shows 2 hours intervals…

While Quill managed to get it in 30 minute intervals in the X-axis, which is where I am struggling

Are you able to get the time interval in 30 minutes in the X-axis like Quill showed?

Thanks,
Charlie

Charlie,

re: Simon II
re: Retired, gonna to make some changes to where you will get lots of deductions where Retired gets none.

this is going to be a two (2) part answer.

re: TSLA - Let’s try looking at your chart again and this time select 1D 5 minutes. Assuming you guys like to Day Trade.
Next on the bottom use the sliding bar and observe the minutes .
left bottom Arc should be around 5:10pm - buy at 5:15.
right side at 7:35pm and sell at 7:40pm. I don’t understand the time clock.

As a Swing Trader, go to 1 month chart and buy TSLA on 3/14/23.

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Now, as you my know Investing is a Business and must be treated as such.

Next year change Retired to " Investor " allowing you to all kinds of deductions running a business and not as a hobby.

On sheet 1 of your 1040 form, go down to line 12 which means you will now have to keep good records and you TAX CPA accountant should be filling out your Schedule A forms with itemized deductions. Or an Outflow statement. Your nuts if you do your own taxes.

Now get an accounting sheet or Pad with 5 columns.

Line 1 - First pile will be labeled “Journals & Periodicals” underlined in Pencil and eraser will be used at times.
eg…
Forbes Magazine - and in column 1 place the dollar amount in column 1
Wall Street Journal -
Barrons -
The Epoch Times subscriptions -
Options Trading for dummies.
etc, etc
get the picture any business related to subscriptions.

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Line 11 - Second pile will be labeled " Supplies & Materials."
printer paper
printer ink
journals
etc., etc

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Line 16 Third pile will be labeled " Software / Hardware
eg…
Arculus - cold storage wallet (crypto coins)
Simpler Trading

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Line 21 - Fourth pile will be labeled " Services Investments" unlined

Cable company that supplies your internet portion - place the dollar amount in column 1
eg…
Barchart
Stockcharts
AAII
Sure Dividend
TradersPro
etc. , etc
list all other subscribing services you may use as an investor researcher.

The above sheet will be handed over to your TAX CPA Accountant.

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Next sheet is your medical, dental expense and insurance created on a Spread sheet

on column 1 Doctors, column 2 Medicines, column Insurance out of pocket

in column A we include monthly dollar deduction for SSI rx insurance for my wife. Total dollar amount for the year in the Insurance column.
in column A we include monthly insurance deductions for my wife. Total dollar amount for the year in the Insurance column.
in column A we include monthly insurance deductions for me. Total dollar amount for the year in the Insurance column.

then
at the total area is the totals for each column.

The above sheet will be handed over to your TAX CPA Accountant.

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Business Plan

What in the world is the World’s Perfect Business?

If You could Describe the World’s Perfect Business

  1. It would have:

Flexible (1-2 hours a day)
No employees
No Inventory
No Selling of any kind
No customers,
No Receivables and no Bad Debts.
No competitors
Recession proof
Low startup capital (+5,000)

  1. It would require:

No Business travel, although if you choose to travel, you can take your business with you anywhere in the world!

No other business is this flexible!

  1. Affordable and Secure:

Your startup funds are liquid and secure and available daily. What you earn today is in your account today.

  1. It has Realistic Hours:

The financial world’s hours are Monday through Friday excluding all legal holidays from 9:30 am to 4:15 pm EST.

  1. Unlimited:

The worlds perfect business is limited only by your imagination and desire … this truly is the American Dream!
This industry gives your lifelong security, independence and you are your own boss!

rewritten from 3/2/2007 notes.

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Business Model - Equity Warehouse 3/1/2007

Equities are Inventory to be Managed, just like auto parts or plumbing supplies.

What is the Warehouse function?

  1. maintain inventory to satisfy demand at a profit.
  2. maintain liquidity to build inventory at fair prices.

repeating…

Your Trading Plan is your Business Plan!

Who are you: an Inventory Manager?

what do you do: Director of Inventory Management

Job Description: Directing the flow of Stock in the Warehouse from Incoming to Outgoing.

Place of employment: Your Laptop or your PC is the Warehouse.

Name of my company: “xxxxxxxx Equity Warehouse”

I am Quillnpenn - a poor church mouse scratching for a living as a Swing Trader.

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Charlie,

I can’t reproduce Quill’s chart and can’t figure out why not.

1 Like

Charlie,

PART Deux - " Business Plan"

Investing is a Business and must be treated as such. DO YOU have a Business Plan, if not start creating one.

Business Plan model…NOT_SET | Tradimo

Psssst…Wanna be a Millionaire, peruse the following as I have duplicated his portfolios that will keep you very busy. The ball is now in your court.

re: How to Become a Millionaire / How to Become Rich - YouTube

View Joseph Carlson’s Main Portfolio: The Finance Super App | M1 Finance M1Finance is FREE

View Joseph Carlson’s Roth IRA: The Finance Super App | M1 Finance

Enjoy the journey,

Quillnpenn - a poor church mouse scratching for a living as a Swing Trader for over 45 years.
------------ Vision - Multi-Millionaire…Goal - earn 1.3% - 2.0% compounded Daily.

1 Like

Awesome, thanks so much Quill!! Will try to use this going forward…Sure I can save a bit on taxes on this!

And yes, I managed to get the time inetrval changed…Horray…and you nailed it…Al I had to do was slide the time interval!!

Yep. Sliding the time bar zoomed in the chart. Problem solved.

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Quill,

As someone who has always done his own taxes, and who can’t file for ‘trader status’, because the bulk of my income isn’t from short-term trades, let me disagree.

But I would point out, as someone who does hundreds of trades per year, that where those trades are done can make a huge difference due to which brokers enable TAX Cut (or similar) to import the 1099’s and which don’t. Also, lately, I’ve taken to doing the bulk of my of my trading in an IRA, just so I won’t have to file on those transactions.

Lastly, if someone were to want to file as a 'trader and were able to do so, then I’d fully agree. He/she should have their taxes prepared by someone who is used to filing taxes for traders. Else, the IRS is going to eat them alive if they try to file by themselves. Linked is a firm that many traders use.

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Let’s say you are doing the 2.5% rule, Well that starts getting to be a large trade. Yet looking at the volume on most stocks it would seem to be impossible to put that large of a trade on. It would seem you would have to split it up over many positions. Just thinking about this and looking at the volume on most stocks.

Andy

Andy,

Setting up a game that tries to capture 2.5% on short-term or even intraday trades is the easy part. Sizing positions according to one’s account size or tolerance for uncertainty --as the account grows in size-- is what isn’t easy or obvious.

Yeah, on a spreadsheet, betting bigger and bigger looks doable. But humans aren’t spreadsheets, and many us choke when we’re forced to make bets bigger than what we’re comfortable with, never mind the problem of getting such trades executed in fairly illiquid markets, which is --actually-- the easy part.

SIMON --as a means to tell When? a position could be put on and should be pulled off is as good as any commercial trading system I’ve ever demoed. But it is only one-third of a complete trading system and completely ignores Risk-Management, a huge part of which --but not all-- is Position-Sizing. I’ve hammered on Quill about this. But he keeps sidestepping the issue. So I’d suggest you do this. Decide what you’re comfortable doing and then stick with it.

Arindam

1 Like

Thanks for the list of semiconductor stocks to add to our watchlists! Here is one related: AEHR - semiconductor testing equipment. It has a tendency for running up fast. I’m waiting for the SimonIII signal on it.

Using a Discounted Cash Flow model, Simply Wall Street estimates ‘Fair Value’ for AEHR to be $10.59. Its PE is 63.5x vs the industry average 18.6x. Those metrics predict a still lower price for AEHR than its current $31, even though it was trading near $40 a week ago.

By contrast, a broad index for the semiconductors, such as SMH, is holding its own. The necessary conclusion is that AEHR has problems.

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The below sure looks like a swing traders dream chart IMHO…doc

2 Likes



If the XLU heads south, the rest will follow.


Sofar Zero losses.


Looks like the Zero losses since the “V” (3/20/2020) pandemic
Any time some folks mention the “V” is then used as a reference point when the market sprung back.
Unique ETFs that divide the S&P 500 into 11 sectors | Select Sector SPDRs my portfolio of stocks I own and Swing Trade them all. XRT is the missing stock in the pile.

Did well since the “V”.

XRT ETF Holdings List - Stock Analysis
Why chase dozens and dozens of stocks while the SPDR’s do all the work.

Just a thought.

1 Like

Right Quill, I have been noticing the Volume on Boil is about 30 times the volume on kold. They seem to be trading Boil with large block counts. That being said I think it is safer to buy Kold and ride it like you are or were doing because it seems to just keep going up over all. Nice job.

Andy

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In boil at 3.45 it turned to the green today. We will see.

Andy

In at $3.45? Why weren’t you in around $3.10 and getting OUT near $3.45?

Because that isn’t the chart I am cooking with. I am working off a daily 2 month chart per simon sez III.

As you can see Arindam I have been out since March 3rd, Friday I received a smiley face, today It was left behind and the candle turned green so in I went. I am going to ride this till the next sell signal.

Andy

1 Like

Andy,

I thought that might be the case, that you were working off of daily bars. Kudos to you for sticking with your trading plan.

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Out of Boil at 3.13. Lost of .32 cents. I have done well day trading boil but holding it on the 2 month daily chart has been a disaster. I thought it was low enough to finally turn but obviously it was just a head fake. I think I need to look at what I am doing on Boil and just realize that it could go much lower since we are going into summer and it won’t be used as much.