Buying (looks like I need more characters)

Investing Strategies Falling Knives
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Still getting used to the boards. A quick update, I put a fair bit amount of cash to work on Friday.

SPY @ 359.75
QQQE @ $61.60 and $60.78

Thought long about DIS as well.

One other point, I have some cash in ATVI - holding out for the merger, but I might close that and just put it directly into the market.

tecmo
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Hi Tecmo,

I’ve been busy as well. Added more GOOG under $100 (I’m thinking that if this is a major bottom, we’ll never see sub-$100 prices again), BABA, FDX, INTC, KMX, MHK, PARA, PKG, T, TROW, and QQQE (on Jim’s recommendation). Warts on a lot of these, but all could be had at extremely low relative valuations. Eight of these could be bought at less than 10 times ttm PE, and GOOG at less than 19 looks like a steal. I still have too much cash if this is a turning point and not a head fake, so I’m looking at some others to start positions in such as JPM, BLK, and CSCO. Some industrials are looking interesting but are not yet screaming at me such as DOV, EMR, and CAT. I don’t like to have more than 2-3% in any one position (except BRKB) so I tend to hold a lot of positions.

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My portfolio is much more concentrated - I have under a dozen individual holdings (which is about the most that I can keep track of). I have as much GOOG as I want and other positions are sized at max (AAPL and MSFT) so I went the index route.

tecmo
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Contemplating taking some (very) short term profits.

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I’ve also been buying over the last few days.

Specifically added some more GOOGL and CRM, and also opened a position in HSTC.L (HSBC Hang Seng Tech UCITS ETF).

The latter because I have a small position in BABA, but wanted to add some mix of the major Chinese tech firms that have been beaten down, but don’t have the time to research more than one or two, so I decided to take out a position in a relatively low cost ETF that tracks a number of them. (I took out a UK-listed ETF because that’s where I live, not because that one is necessarily better than similar ETFs listed elsewhere.)

I’m looking at opening a few other new positions that broadly fall into a couple of categories:

  1. Businesses with high growth potential, which typically don’t show any earnings (through choice of reinvesting in growth), where the valuation has fallen dramatically. There’s a good number of these (e.g. Docusign, Shopify, Snowflake, etc.); some will have problems ahead and some won’t. Salesforce sort of fits in this category to some extent, but is much larger and more mature. Need more research.
  2. Good old value plays, where mature profitable businesses are selling at low P/E multiples. Again, quite a lot of these are starting to come around with the broad market falls. Some are at cyclical high earnings and thus not quite the value they seem from a simple P/E figure, though. E.g. Micron, Intel, Western Digital, Carmax, some airlines, etc. Again, I need more research to attempt to pick the best ones.

– David

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