Canada: Petrostate

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
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Canada has been a petrostate for some time, but the current PM is looking to accentuate that. This is an about face for a man who helped set up a cartel of banks called GFANZ ( Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero).

https://www.gfanzero.com/about/
GFANZ was launched in April 2021 by UN Special Envoy on Climate Action and Finance Mark Carney and the COP26 presidency to accelerate the transition to a net-zero global economy.

And now, four years later…

Once considered the Bank of England’s greenest-ever governor, Mark Carney has seemingly undergone a Damascene conversion. During his time at Threadneedle Street, he called on the world to leave 80% of oil and gas in the ground.

But now, as Canada’s new prime minister, he wants to pump as much as he can to protect the country’s economy from Donald Trump’s trade war. Canada is going to become an energy powerhouse, Carney told reporters last week…

DB2

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Totally sane. The petroleum majors have successfully blocked any serious attempt at curbing GCC until after they have pumped their main reserves dry.

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Ontario, the most populous and also the most industrial Canadian province, recently published its energy plan going out to 2050. Below is a summary of the plan, with emphasis on Ontario’s nuclear power generation.

From the link:
With nuclear currently responsible for 50% of Ontario’s total generation and hydro contributing 24%, Ontario already has one of the cleanest grids in the world, the plan notes. Under Energy for Generations, “nuclear power will continue to serve as the backbone of the province’s electricity system providing the 24/7 baseload power the province’s economy requires” as demand continues to rise.

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Looking at the actual report, Figure 9 has an interesting table on the projected energy use per household. Below is a partial tabulation.

Ontario forecast energy per household, PJ/year
                2025      2035      2050
Electricity    180.46    247.21    325.74
Natural Gas    277.91    246.29    263.38  
Oil Products   330.51    208.54     59.46

Electricity use per household is projected to increase, while natural gas holds about the same. However, oil products are forecast to drop rather significantly by 2050. I guess they assume nearly everyone in Ontario will be driving EVs by then. Given the Canadian climate, and the performance of EVs in cold weather, I’m not so sure about that.

_ Pete

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