So I thought we would have 3 legs down but we have only had 2 and now the S&P is above the 50 sma. The Fear and Greed is at 48 now and it looks like the market wants to go higher. I am about 90 percent invested again. That is why you can’t just stay bearish when the market is telling you differently. All the people that say you can’t time the market are correct if you are not willing to change your mind. That is how people miss out on markets that start going back up. Could it change? Of course it could but right now everything looks like we are getting a green light. If it makes it above that 200sma (black line) we will be in the clear.
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How much decline from here for you to go back to reduce stock holdings?
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I wouldn’t call a close above the 200 DMA necessarily in the clear. Could be a fake. We are entering the “weak season.” Yes, hardly the best timing signal but not without recognized historical bias. Also, (sorry not intended to be pol***cal but hard to separate it here) sometime in June I think…? the hub-bub and foo-fa-rah over tariffs comes back around. And, unofficially, I am convinced they are holding that string to jerk as long as they can use it. It’s too many whipsaws that kill most timing systems. Or perhaps people are tired of hearing it and will ignore it…
As far as I’m concerned, I’m watching the 200 sma but still have some decisions to make
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I don’t go by the Macro but if it goes below that green line it won’t be good. That is the 21ema around 5463. I follow the stocks I am invested in and if they break I will be out. Usually around the 50sma unless I just invested then it will be 5 percent below the price I came in.
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That is very true the whipsaws can kill you. That is why I invest incremental with tight stops and smaller amounts. It’s hard to get a toe hold but you don’t lose as much and then when the market does start going up you can get fully invested. I am not looking for the bottom or the top.
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