There are serious of consumer surveys, media reports to SeekingAlpha screaming how investors are shell shocked and the market is going to crash, etc.
We don’t know what the market is going to do, but all this negativity is a strong contrarian signal.
Here is another data point showing, the negative sentiments are truly historical now.
Meh.
AAII bears was also above 50% for 4 straight weeks in the summer of 2008.
And, for full disclosure, they were also above 50% for 4 straight weeks in late February of 2009.
Not sure I would necessarily put much stock into this when there are so few periods of 4 or 5 straight weeks above 50%.
So what you are saying during a severe market decline, a period where markets declined by 50%, I think the market bottomed on March 9th, and when people were literally jumping out of the office window, and nation underwent a serious housing crisis, that is people were losing houses, biggest wall street firms were going under, congress has to pass multiple bailout packages… we didn’t hit 5 weeks in row. But now we are hitting is something you will ignore. I present a data, how you want to look at it, and consume it is up to you.
Here is the problem. When the market has 3 waves down at the bottom of each wave the bearish sentiment is high then it goes up to a lower high when everyone gets bullish and then drops again. Those are both bear and bull traps. Everyone gets chopped up. So be careful when trying to decide when the final drop is. This is a very tricky market.
What validity do you assign to five weeks that you don’t assign to 4 weeks?
Again, it was above 50% in the summer of 2008. Those bears were absolutely correct.
I am not going to assign some value that might be simply be coincidence. For example, maybe the real correlation is not five weeks above 50 but being above 60% for 3 weeks.
Having just two times (as far as we know from this thread) when it was five weeks straight above 50 in the last 30+ years is not a trend for me to buy and sell on. If you feel that one additional week somehow is a panacea for investing (but 4 weeks is not), then feel free.
Apple with its 7% and 9% weight in SP500 and Nasdaq100, is showing a very positive price action. Again, use multiple indicators to see how the market is acting.
I agree with looking at individual stocks. It’s possible to find a good one hiding out among all the poor ones.
That’s not what I said, when the Apple moves that moves 10% of the market cap, market cannot go down or up without big stocks going with them. Hence, Apple performance is important to watch. If you are going to look at individual names, they cannot be such an anchor to the overall market. You can substitute apple with Mag7.
That’s what makes the market
Oh then I disagree. Because the market is heading down and I suspect we will get a dead cat bounce around 17490 then I expect it to take out the lows of 3 /11
OpenAI is close to finalizing $40B funding round!!! AI trade is not yet done…
In a normal distribution, 68% of observations will fall within 1 standard deviation (1 sigma) and 95% within 2 standard deviation and 99.7% within 3 standard deviation. Now, you should be able to do the math yourself.
Looks like if 5500 is undercut then you get your 5 wave… I am not really familiar with this. Just repeating what I saw elsewhere.
3 waves right? I am only guessing and am not tied to this. If the market was to take off tomorrow I would probably go back on the bull side. But I still think we will go down, just a guess.
May be. I wanted to buy some call spreads but nothing cheap and interesting. Also, it is frustrating to see the brokerage accounts. 
Hopefully, it is reverse sell the news, i.e., the market sold the rumor and end up buying the news.
Hey Kingran you might want to take a look at IIPR-PA. The A preffered for IIPR. They are cumulative. I suspect that IIPR is going to cut their dividend and when they do the Preffered should jump over 10 percent. They are having problems with their renters but the balance sheet is solid and the prefferreds should be good.
I’m avoiding REIT preferreds and focusing on big bank preferreds instead. I’m prioritizing fixed income for safety rather than chasing marginal returns. Plus, buying and exiting these positions can be challenging.
You sound like you are expecting a depression.
No. I used to keep cash and fixed income up to 30~35%. I am currently fully invested, I am not very comfortable with this allocation, so I am going to reduce, sell where I could and get to 10% ~ 15% cash/ fixed income.
