Market Trend Indicators 4/19/24

Investing Strategies Mechanical Investing
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One might think from looking at market behavior these last 2-3 weeks that a new deadly unknown pandemic was starting, not a .05% miss on an inflation estimate and a few months pushback of future interest rates relaxing by 1/2 a percent. Almost every intermediate breadth/trend signal I follow has flipped to bearish. As fast as they did when the CV panic hit. Hopefully a bit overdone, methinks (but not predicting).
Overall: -6 - swing from +6 in 2 weeks.

Intermediate-Term
BearCatcher Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows Bear 4/12/24
BearCatcher SMA Slope, S&P 500 Bull 11/10/23
BearCatcher Dying Bullish Euphoria comb. Bull 12/14/23
BC Summary The Key 1 2
Momentum, Int # 26 week highs 1/19/24
Momentum, Int DMI Bear Bull 4/19/24
Momentum, Int-Term 10/50 Crossover Bear 4/19/24
Momentum, Int PPO Weekly Bear 4/19
Momentum, Int 26W / 52W Bull 11/10/23
Breadth, midterm PAMA Naz 50 Bear 4/12
Breadth, midterm Breadth Confirms Bear 4/12/24
Breadth, midterm Naz Bullish % Bear 4/19/24
Breadth, midterm S&P PAMA 200 Bull 12/15/23
Breadth Thrust Breadth Thrust Watch
Correction Mode >7% off last peak Bull 11/9/23
Timing, Seasonal MACD on RUT Bear 4/19/24
Interest Rates Corporate Bond Index 2/16/24
Short Term Top Warning 5
Momentum, ST PPO Daily Bear 3/22/24
Breadth, short term SP600 PAMA20 Bear 3/15
Breadth, short term PAMA5D %OFF 21dh Bear 4/12/24
Top, short term PAMA Divergence Highs Bear 2/16/24
Top PAA Count Bear 12/18/23
Top Recent Simple Top 1/10/24
Top Primary-Tech Divergence
Bottom Extreme PAMA low Bull-weak 4/12/24
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Hi Flyingcircus,
thanks a lot for posting these.
Could you explain how to/you few of these indicators, or reference previous posts where they were detailed ?
Specifically would be interested in:

  • Top PAA Count
  • Top Recent Simple Top
  • Momentum, Int # 26 week highs
  • Momentum, Int DMI
  • Interest Rates Corporate Bond Index
    Thanks a lot
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PAA Count - “percent above averages” is a private indicator developed by Zeelotes. Basically, it’s market breadth, divergence - when an index is hitting new highs, but the number of its constituent stocks above moving averages for defined periods is declining, its an indicator of a “thin” market - highs are highly concentrated in megacaps.

Recent simple top: a simple public signal Zeelotes released many years ago. Strong recent past bullishness that may be weakening. Daily: sum (+1 If >16 of the last 25 trading days are up, +1 for today’s market up, +1 if <5 of the last 25 trading days are up over 1%); if that sum is 3, a simple top warning fires. (Note: he may have changed the conditions of any of these signals in the past without notice except to his paid subscribers.)
#26 week highs: if the number of 26 week highs hitin the last 10 days is too high (more than 5 or 6), it’s a potential top developing.
DMI is a classic technical indicator of intermediate trend & momentum. Check it out at ADX/DMI at Average Directional Index (ADX) | ChartSchool
Corp Bond Index, best is to Google it - Corp bond index related to its value 14 days ago: $DJCB | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com

The other timing / indicators a few denizens follow are at Timing Methods - MechanicalInvestingFAQ

Putting it together - Post #936 by FlyingCircus on the Mechanical Investing board
Additional context: Post #935 by FlyingCircus on the Mechanical Investing board

These are all intended to be used as defense against longer term bear markets, and individually they’re some pretty noisy tuning knobs, or blunt instruments - just for reference & your choice-making - and all to be used in concert, not individually.

Cheers, FC

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Thanks a million for the answers!!

1 Like