As August, September, and now October have been mildly but generally steadily negative, it’s not surprising that these signals below are almost all “Bearish”, and especially US Small Caps (like the SIPro screen universe). Of note recently, the SMA Slope on the S&P just went neutral, bearish on the Russell 2000, and tpotos old 26w/52w intermediate signal went bearish on smallcaps. The Seasonal Timing indicator went bullish for 2 days 10/16-10/17 on the evaluation day, then flipped to bearish again, a headfake.
There are weak bottom signals appearing in the “so bad it has to get better soon” category, and a few signals are in oversold level.
| Intermediate-Term |
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| Type |
Signal |
Bear |
Bull |
As of |
Comment |
| BearCatcher |
Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows |
Bear |
|
8/4/23 |
|
| BearCatcher |
SMA Slope, S&P 500 |
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10/27/23 |
Smallcaps bear 10/27 |
| BearCatcher |
Dying Bullish Euphoria comb. |
|
Bull |
2/1/23 |
|
| BC Summary |
The Key |
1 |
1 |
|
Watch Out |
| Momentum, Int |
# 26 week highs |
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7/14/23 |
|
| Momentum, Int |
DMI |
Bear |
|
9/22/23 |
|
| Momentum, Int-Term |
10/50 Crossover |
Bear |
|
9/21/23 |
|
| Momentum, Int |
PPO Weekly |
Bear |
|
9/8 |
|
| Momentum, Int |
26W / 52W |
|
Bull |
10/27/23 |
Smallcaps bear 10/27 |
| Breadth, midterm |
PAMA Naz 50 |
Bear |
|
9/8 |
|
| Breadth, midterm |
Naz Bullish % |
Bear |
|
9/6/23 |
|
| Breadth, midterm |
S&P PAMA 200 |
Bear |
|
2/24/23 |
|
| Breadth Thrust |
Breadth Thrust |
|
Watch |
|
Last was Jan 23 |
| Correction Mode |
>7% off last peak |
Bear |
|
10/20/23 |
Tech Correction |
| Timing, Seasonal |
MACD on RUT |
|
Bull |
10/16/23 |
Bearish Headfake |
| Interest Rates |
Corporate Bond Index |
Bear |
|
9/29/23 |
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| Short Term |
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| Momentum, ST |
PPO Daily |
Bear |
|
10/20/23 |
|
| Breadth, short term |
SP600 PAMA20 |
Bear |
|
10/6 |
|
| Breadth, short term |
PAMA5D %OFF 21dh |
Bear |
|
10/27/23 |
|
| Top, short term |
PAMA Divergence Highs |
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6/14/23 |
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| Top |
PAA Count |
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8/22/23 |
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| Top |
Recent Simple Top |
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11/19/21 |
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| Top |
Primary-Tech Divergence |
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| Bottom |
Extreme PAMA low |
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10/27/23 |
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| Leverage, Macro |
Margin Debt to GDP |
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9/1/22 |
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| Valuation |
CAPE<1sd historical? |
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Sjuggerud? |
Bear |
|
3/24 |
8/25 |
Those 5% annual yields on treasuries, more on GHY, looking better every day.
FC
6 Likes
Hi FC,
Thanks for that…I know you dont have the crystal ball, but I do appreciate your wisdom/ experience…so, based on your experience/ intuition, what do you think are the odds for a Nov/ Dec year end rally?
And when does the institutions/ funds/ big money players do tax loss harvesting? I hope it was Sept/ October… I would be devastated if it is Nov/ Dec!
Are there any resources where we can get to identify or know these things as they happen…or in general, any resources that would help to get out before everything hits the fan, and we are left as the last of the bag holders.
Thanks,
Charlie
1 Like
I2L - I’d like to be able to, but no way I can give “odds for a Nov/Dec yearend rally”. The positive influences include the ephemeral seasonal effect starting now, hedge fund tax loss harvesting being over generally by end of October, and pure mean reversion - breadth is nearing negative extremes and some weak short term bottom indicators are popping.
Negative influences include the Fed and the Fed. If they keep raising interest rates, even marginally, more money is going to flow to 10 year treasuries and shorter term bonds; if they keep following QT (mortgage bond sales back), there will be less big $ chasing equities. After that, there’s the economy, and the growing uncertainty about the sociopathic clown show going on in the Capitol. And who wants to guess at that??
The trend is your friend until it isn’t, and I’m not risking losing (more) money on equities in the short term in what has turned into a decent little “correction” - until at least the short terms turn with some conviction, and then not more until the intermediate terms flip back. The saying I remember is a quote from Jeff Saut after the GFC - “there’s no harm preserving capital until a clearer picture emerges.”
These indicators (if you’re interested I could compile a list of the charts involved) mainly work as mean reversion, but they also highlight big money flows. When Covid hit they all nosedived, and even without more contextual detail it was obvious something unprecedented & massive was up & "get out’ was issued quickly; but then the V bounce happened because the government / Fed made it crystal clear they were not going to let the economy collapse - special situation, but within a couple of weeks it became clear it was time to get back in - the short term signals spiked back to bullishness first and led the way. TLDR: it all rolls up to “pretty safe to invest” or “not a good time to invest.”
All FWIW.
3 Likes
Thanks a lot FC.
Yes, if possible, that would be awesome, thanks
Charlie