This is a contrarian review. What does that mean? Why would I offer this? Because I am not 1% as smart as Saul or Muji or Gaucho etc. I spent 35 years earning subpar returns. I’m going to describe my returns for the year and they come with a contrarian warning that perhaps if I can perform like this then possibly none of us should think we have mastered our craft? Likely you have enjoyed returns like never before? This has a way of making us feel like we know what we are doing. Earning annual like returns month after month make one think they have cracked the code. I have not. I have no advice. I can tell you how I got here I can’t tell you why or that it was intuitive or genius. I had 7 great moves this year or so.
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I switched over to Saul like strategy mid 2019. I reduced my number of holdings to 6-8.
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I got lucky as hell with timing by selling about half my holdings after the first leg down early this year, late February.
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I got extremely lucky going back to 100% equities near the bottom late March.
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I went all in on NET 15% not 2 or 3% after reading a fantastic deep dive by Muji very early around $24-27.
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I did similar with ZM around $137 AND didnt lolly gag around when the last earnings faltered in their growth projections.
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Sold ZM and bought near equal amounts of NET, CRWD, SQ, AND ENPH.
6.Did not second guess my decisions! -
Except for my “accidental” covid timing i stayed nearly 100% invested all year.
Here is what I own today.
NET 30%
CRWD 20.3
ENPH 17.3%
SQ 15.8
DDOG 11.1%
AYX 6.1%
NVTA 2%
About 2ish% margin to grab NVTA this week.
Almost everybody came into NET long after I jumped all in from Mujis write up and it feels like it is still under represented on this board. Nothing but tail winds and most seem to be still building positions.
CRWD top conviction across the board and putting out the strongest numbers of all our SaaS darlings.
SQ. This one to me is under discussed. So many fingers in the financial pie! Banking for millenials and every generation to come. Payday loans, small biz loans, brokerage, bit coin, cash app etc. I went to burger king drive thru for breakfast and pulled out cash for the first time in forever and was asked if i could give exact change, they had none! CASH is dead! Like newsprint 10 years ago!
ENPH. New political admin, global change, infrastructure spending, cost metrics, you name it and solar has EVERY possible tail wind, at warp speed!
DDOG keep holding, keep loving the intelligent reviews, just waiting for a bigger break out.
Ayx I got out year when most of us did. I bought back in tho because i didnt want it to be another MONGO or SHOP. I swore once never to sell MONGO or AYX. I sold MONGO after its “poor” quarter and regretted it. I sold AYX after its poor quarter but didnt wait for its surging rebound to dip a tow back in. I want to have a position in AYX BEFORE post covid tailwinds kick in again. This was a stock that 2 years ago we ALL thought was a 15 year hold.
NVTA a nod to a previous conviction and an ARK Kathy Wood bio conviction. And personally i believe that medical results technology catered to individual dna is the future!
How did I do this year? Holy schmoly! I got LUCKY!
Jan + 25.79%
Feb + 10.17%
March - 10.62%
Apr +14.3%
May + 44%
June + 20%
July + 8.78%
Aug + 13.1%
Sept + 4.9%
Oct + 2.6%
Nov + 13.87%
Dec + 14.77%
That is an incredible, mind numbing 414.13% in one year! My ATH was 460.2% on Dec 23rd!
If you have read this far, this is my contrarian message. I am not brilliant. Perhaps you are not either? Saul is brilliant! Confirmation bias from incredible success could(?) undermine our future returns?
Im just saying, be careful out there.
Best of luck to you all. Thank you to Saul, muji, Gaucho, and several(many many)others whom I respect and owe my life to. I retired at 57 with twice what I hoped to have and retire on at somewhere between 59.5 and 62!
Respectfully, gratefully, Tim.
P.S. I doubt they will do as well as other holdings, but my personal conviction based on my own cognitive understanding of things political and intuitively are why I hold SQ and ENPH.