Do you have faith in this market?

Let’s discuss it. I amcurious how many of us have faith this is a bull or bear market?

Will this breakout above 4800 and keep going? Are we heading for a short term top? Those are the two alternatives at this point.

I need to do a mea culpa for remarks to @WendyBG at the beginning of this week.

But that begs the question how far is this market going in your opinions? Stick your neck out. We wont trade or invest on any of it. Just a verbal if you will posting show of hands…and humor…

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Reply hazy, try again.

Or, upon more thought, I find I need more data and so

Ask again later.

Oh, wait, I know I know! BUT

Better not tell you now.
Cannot predict now.
Concentrate and ask again…


David fb
(who is more and more out of securities markets and into private investments in “logistics” in Los Angeles and along Mexican USA border via Real Estate and small scale transport and warehousing firms.)


My crystal ball sees a major crack forming.

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:


Oh no, my secret source of successful snorfling of stocks is sniffled out!

Cheers (and I vote for muddled mushy markets mostly marking time until either Ukrainian or GOPian futures are clearer),

david fb


The past is only clear once it is revised.

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Like @flyerboys I have absolutely no idea about breakouts or tops. And I don’t much don’t care. I’m in my 50s. So my investing horizon is at least 30 years, maybe 40 years. So as long as the American economy keeps chugging along reasonably well, I don’t care much about the short term market swings.

That said, I’m pretty optimistic about the medium to long term. The great Neil Irwin reports a generationally massive investment in American industrial capacity is underway:

As of April, spending on manufacturing construction — new factories — is tracking at a $189 billion annual rate, triple the average rate in the 2010s ($63 billion).

That’s good news for the future. The people building those factories make good money, and the people who will work in those factories will also make good money.

And there are tons of other good economic news sprinkled about. Inflation, which seems to be mostly a COVID-related headache, seems to be headed down, which means interest rates should be steady or start to fall soon. That means even more investment. Wages however are outpacing inflation. That means consumers can buy stuff from those new factories. Job creation is still booming. Consumer sentiment is high.

Massive investments in renewables will drive energy prices down, which ultimately will drive inflation down or at least help keep it steady.

And from a selfish perspective, American hegemony hasn’t looked this good in a while. Russia is rapidly declining as a global player. If a country can’t buy weapons from US approved sources they are SOL. We’re picking the winners and losers from now on. China is facing a crippling demographic problem. Europe isn’t much better off.

Putin’s war has accelerated European investment in efficiency and renewables and increased energy purchases from the US. This will diminish Russia’s and the Middle East’s influence in the future.

So as far as I can tell, all signs point to good for the intermediate term.


I agree with @syke6. The skies sure do look rosy going forward.

I’m primarily into fixed income at this point. Absolutely no equity positions.
We’re retired, have a conservative financial plan that works, and not up for taking on any risk.



The sky is so bright and clear I can not see.

That is the problem. I can not make out why. Meaning the stock market can be considered over priced. The reasons the market would drop seem unknown. The press is selling y’all hard.

Everything is so great.

Who me worry?

Alfred E. Newman

BTW some of my English and Irish family are blanking bricks as they watch. What are they being told? Office space in the US is highly dangerous.

I am 67 years old and, tlike syke6 and Warrend Buffett, I have no clue where the market is headed over the next year or two. I am playing the market for the long term by investing my unneeded Social Security Cheka in two low cost etfs (2/3 us total market, 1/3 world total market) and also shifting unneeded money from my regular IRA to my Roth IRA. annually I still have a large cash position as a security blanket early in retirement.

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For myself as a trader, I am starting to move out more into cash. Chinese consumer demands for goods have been dropping last couple months. You can see the impact on export-driven countries like Singapore. Right now, I feel the market rally is due to the expected halt to Fed tightening. But, reality will hit later when global demands for American-made goods falter. The juxtaposition is India - the next Asian Tiger to emerge. India maybe the next global powerhouse.

Whatever it is, caveat on WW3 not arriving in our generation. Global political situation is not good. A China-Taiwan war will make the Ukraine war looks like kid’s play.

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That’s the problem, isn’t it? So much of what will affect stock and bond prices in the future is driven by politics, and the political situation can become pretty shaky pretty quickly. I can’t see anything good happening in Russia or China, so a lot of what happens to our portfolio will depend on U.S. response to the developing situation. I think U.S. companies are awake and starting to adapt, but I’m not sure they started soon enough.

I know many started to leave China in a panic literally at the height of the pandemic two years ago. The IRA passed last year. Most factory buildouts are on two year schedules.

We really need a grid bill to pass congress. We need to hook up new factories and more power across larger regions.

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Talk is cheap. Timing the market is futile. Buffett and the best traders can’t do it. I’m sure we have a 50/50 chance calling it right. How are you going to rely on it for your investing strategy? How valuable is it?

We are part-way there. We have gridLOCK.