Fading META pop, so adding to QQQ shorts. May be an Apple rebound next week too, so holding off on max index shorts until first week or two of May, most likely.
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we might be getting to that blowoff top more quickly, so I tweaked plan a bit.
added more shorts now, and pausing to let AMZN play out.
Then depending on what that looks like, will see if I need to wait for AAPL to play out.
Plan is remaining cash can be used for both shorts and puts if the BMR continues.
Odd thing was I was at a YTD high at close yesterday, and all of a sudden the indexes are on fire today. Lost some ground, sure…but point is I am continuing to increase shorts from a higher port/cash balance. Slowly but surely climbing towards my ATH from early 2022.
Don’t know how long capitulation will/would take, but the plan is to eventually flip it all long when the good entry prices start showing up.
Dreamer
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Added just a bit more to SPY short.
Total shorts on indexes about 80%.
Saving the 20% cash for puts and more shorts if AAPL leads a rally next week.
Hoping to keep the shorts on for a while from here….ideally into June or beyond.
Remaining flexible, as always, and my internal sell formulas are based on ideal exit prices and velocity of moves.
So i may want to make 10% overall, but if we move 5% down over two trading days, hard not to take some quick gains.
Lets see what tomorrow brings…
Dreamer
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the day has turned against me so far.
oh well.
two days ago I was at YTD high, but at this rate I think I will be down slightly in April when the dust settles.
Still early in the trading day, so who knows.
What I do find interesting is how obvious it is that MMAAAN has accounted for almost all the market index gains…and how unusual it is for typical growth stocks we follow to lag the megatechs so greatly.
It does not bode well, imo, for the NET ENPH ZS DDOG and others to be so near 52 wk lows, while market has flown up YTD.
What happens if/when indexes finally tank?
Dreamer
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While not yet at a new YTD high, today’s strong move (for me) urges me to take some gains. Let’s see what craziness and new positioning we can take, thanks to FOMC decision tomorrow.
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I had some open orders to short QQQ and SPY, but my targets were never hit. I was basically hoping for a nice big irrational UP spike, and we did get up a bit, but not a ton.
Oh well…but hey, I am still in the green for today at the moment.
I think I will wait for market to digest AAPL earnings tomorrow, then if we get a nonsensical pop then, I may increase the shorts.
Dreamer
Added about 8% more to qqq short just now
Want to do more, but i think i will just add shorts/puts on any strength.
Not saying this is the beginning of the end, but fomc plus continued bank implosions afterhours, combined with softening economy, combined w nonsensical ytd rallies in indexes…feels like a good position for shorts.
Still open to adding ind stock long positions along the way down, if i like the entry prices.
Dreamer
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didn’t get much more with that extra short position from AH last night, but that is ok. Pausing to watch the AAPL results and market reaction. Reasoning is if we get a pop, I can short from higher.
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Adding more shorts.
If the market heralds Apple near an ath based on -2% y/y growth and a miss on Services, i call bs and am fading this whole house of cards.
Dreamer
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I am 10% cash and 2% treasuries. So, I have shifted gears a bit. Wednesday I added to SPG. Not the greatest price, but a little dip. I brought it up to almost the 5% target in my eventually-to-be-20-stock portfolio. Done, can put it in the sock drawer and watch the dividend re-invest do its thing.
I have 30 stocks so I will tend to consolidate, or call a basket of moonshots a single position.
So, Thursday I began to sell winners and buy losers (winners and losers for the day). I trimmed DDOG back to a full position and also took daily profit on OLED and GLBE. These were up 14%, 8% and 5%. Not sure how I missed SNOW at up 7%. I will want to trim it back to 5% also. Then I bought some FOUR which was down 9% and continued to down 10.5%. Net, I added about 1% to cash. Recent history says that these post earnings pops fade in coming days.
I checked BMW potential buys list and saw interesting names. Stocks frequently discussed on MF. 15 that I recognized and 9 of which I have owned (1 currently):
AMZN, CGNX, DIS, HAS, ILMN, IPGP, IRBT, JBLU, MTCH, NFLX, PEGA, SWKS, TREX, WAL, and WBD. The once mighty now cigar b utts. What could go wrong? Anyway, I am doing shallow dives on these to see if any are of interest. All must be having issues or they wouldn’t make the BMW list, but are any worthy of consideration for a 2-year investment horizon?
Very busy with non-investment stuff. Local VC. 90-second dead hang yesterday. Made it to physical limit, blocking out the “discomfort” in fingers and palms. All in your head, KC.
KC
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Trimmed BILL and AFRM, up 19% and 14%. Nothing I want to buy with the proceeds.
Both still in red and BILL oversized at 5.5% of port. BILL volume 2.5x in less than 2 hours. AFRM almost average day’s volume already. Some level of conviction by the market but I am not a believer at the moment.
KC
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I just started timing this, too!
Every morning I have a short routine and part is hanging from my pullup bar, but I do 20 “scapula pullups” which is kind of like a shrug vs an actual pullup.
Suddenly decided to start timing myself this week, and I could barely do a minute. Got to about 70 seconds a couple other times. What is weird is that a dead hang seems harder than the scapula pullups, even though it is same amount of bodyweight either way. Maybe my forearms/grip are just distracted during the scapula movements. My goal is to eventually get to 2 min on hang, but will probably take a while. I still need to lose 20 pounds and I think I am finally close to being motivated to do it, as the weather is better and I can spend more time on walks/runs to supplement the gym workouts. Biggest thing is always diet, and I just need to be a bit restrictive for 2 weeks to kickstart my body into giving up some of the dad bod bellyfat.
As far as your port…I wonder all the time if I should just be buying stocks vs waiting on the market. But the time for me to buy was last June or Oct or even Dec…not when we are as high as we are. Some stocks are faltering, but others (like BILL) are now popping again after the big falter. So who knows.
Increased my SPY and QQQ shorts on today’s pop. I am wading into the deep end of the pool soon!
Dreamer
You’ve been on the correct side all year. I am at 99.887%, as in down 0.1% YTD. Why are we up today? These big gainers are all dogs: BILL, STEM, ONDS, AFRM, SPT. And others are consumer facing: GLBE, UPST, VFC. Throw in VERI and it is turn around, moon shot, and hope. However, when the real thing comes along, it will be like this. Up 4, 5, 6% for a week and “the time to have bought” will be “before”. It is hard.
I’ll check out the scapula pullups. I don’t know if I can even do one pull up, but I have only a couple of extra lbs. I am maybe 20 pounds under my prime playing weight (which wasn’t all that much).
KC
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my favorite workout guru on the benefits of hanging
here is the scapula pullup hang at the 4:27 mark:
here is an attractive athlete telling you all about it:
Dreamer
ONDS is now up 36% on no news. Last filing was mid-March. Last news release, mid-March. Something like 1% of shares have traded… check math, 600,000 of 50 million…1.2%… 3:45 a.m. here, cut some slack.
Pace of credit xpansion increased in March… Wowza! Back up the truck.
O.k., sold 15% of my ONDS shares. I’ll regret later when this becomes a 10-bagger.
Up three tenths of one percent year to date.
KC
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" My goal is to eventually get to 2 min on hang, but will probably take a while."
I left my shirt on so as to not embarrass the fitness bloggers. My ribs are larger than theirs 
Well, no matter, can’t upload .mp4. Somehow a still .jpeg doesn’t convey quite the same information as a **2 MINUTE, 3 SECOND ** deadhang video.
Just have to take my word for it.
KC
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UPST earnings will be AMC Tuesday, 9th. I’m really lazy this quarter. Not sure what else is coming up.
KC
More earnings dates, from E*Trade 'cause I’m lazy.
AFRM 5/9 ONDS 5/10 TTD 5/10 MNDY 5/15 MNRO 5/18 PANW 5/23 VFC 5/23 SNOW 5/28 PVH 5/31 CRWD 5/31 NCNO 5/31 PCOR 5/31
GLTL,
KC
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Today-- PYPL & SWAV
6/1 ZS
JT 
Strange action on AFRM. Up 11% the day before earnings. Recent macro news was about tight credit Pay later involves credit at some level in the banking/financial system. UPST price is soft. Maybe some profit taking on AFRM, pre-emptive short covering?
I trimmed my AFRM holding. Then, as public service announcement in view of Dreamer’s short positions, be advised that I sold covered calls on all of my CRWD, BILL and SNOW positions. CRWD already in the money. Certain to be risk on at least through Friday.
KC
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